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1

An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Returns And Volatility: The Case Of Stock Markets From Central And Eastern Europe

100%
Okičić J.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
|
2015
|
vol. 9
|
issue 1
7-15
EN
The main goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of stock returns in the case of stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. Since there is relatively little empirical research on the volatility of stock returns in underdeveloped stock markets, with even fewer studies on markets in the transitional economies of the CEE region, this paper is designed to shed some light on the econometric modelling of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns from this region. The results presented in this paper provide confirmatory evidence that ARIMA and GARCH processes provide parsimonious approximations of mean and volatility dynamics in the case of the selected stock markets. There is overwhelming evidence corroborating the existence of a leverage effect, meaning that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks do. Since financial decisions are generally based upon the trade-off between risk and return, the results presented in this paper will provide valuable information in decision making for those who are planning to invest in stock markets from the CEE region.
2

Dynamic Portfolio Selection on Croatian Financial Markets: MGARCH Approach

86%
Škrinjarić T., Šego B.
Business Systems Research Journal
|
2016
|
vol. 7
|
issue 2
78-90
EN
Background: Investors on financial markets are interested in finding trading strategies which could enable them to beat the market. They always look for best possibilities to achieve above-average returns and manage risks successfully. MGARCH methodology (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) makes it possible to model changing risks and return dynamics on financial markets on a daily basis. The results could be used in order to enhance portfolio formation and restructuring over time. Objectives: This study utilizes MGARCH methodology on Croatian financial markets in order to enhance portfolio selection on a daily basis. Methods/Approach: MGARCH methodology is applied to the stock market index CROBEX, the bond market index CROBIS and the kuna/euro exchange rate in order to model the co-movements of returns and risks on a daily basis. The estimation results are then used to form successful portfolios. Results: Results indicate that using MGARCH methodology (the CCC and the DCC model) as guidance when forming and rebalancing a portfolio contributes to less portfolio volatility and greater cumulated returns compared to strategies which do not take this methodology into account. Conclusions: It is advisable to use MGARCH methodology when forming and rebalancing portfolios in terms of portfolio selection.
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