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Model of Financial Crisis Contagion: A Survey-based Simulation by Means of the Modified Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots

100%
Roszkowska P., Prorokowski Ł.
Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia
|
2014
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vol. 13
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issue 1
22-55
EN
The aim of this paper is to present a broad picture and novel aspects of the financial crisis contagion with respect to the stages of crisis contagion and its propagation factors. We employ a pioneering approach to a simulation of the financial crisis contagion by embarking on a qualitative query rather than on empirical data (i.e. by adopting an international investor’s perspective by conducting the qualitative query backed by semi-structured interviews with financial markets’ participants). Building on modified Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots, we suggest a model for the financial crisis contagion based on international linkages between markets, with particular attention paid to spot vulnerabilities in regulatory frameworks that allowed for the crisis to spread. Simulation results showed that there were several phases of crisis contagion in Europe, and different countries (regions) were contained via different paths, propagated by different factors with not equal intensity. The diversity of European countries’ susceptibility is evident not only when comparing advanced markets to the emerging ones, but also within these groups. Hereto, both international investment practitioners, as well as pan European market authorities should analyse with scrutiny the links emerging from the simulation, so that to develop sound and efficient investment strategies or impose tailor-made regulations for financial markets.
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Unia Rynków Kapitałowych – ewolucja czy rewolucja europejskiego modelu rynku kapitałowego?

84%
Czykierda M.
Studia Iuridica
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2018
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vol. 76
153-170
PL
In September 2015, the European Commission announced the first actions of its plan to build a Capital Markets Union in Europe. The undertaken restructuring of the financing model is designed to make a shift in the main channel through which enterprises raise investment funds, from loans to capital, and – as a result – contribute to more dynamic growth in the EU Member States. I describe the key features of the Commission’s plan and discuss the economic rationale behind it. The plan has many strengths but also some weaknesses, such as limited ambition in the supervision and enforcement of securities regulations. Other challenges to the development of European capital markets include the financial transactions tax, the low-interest-rate environment, cultural reasons, and potential political opposition. My paper deals first of all with highlighting the structure of the financial sector in the European Union. It provides a overview of the role of the different financial and no financial sectors in offering capital funds to accomplish the needs of households, companies, governments, etc.. I also describe the history of capital market integration in the EU. The paper also analyses some important aspects of the implementation of the Capital Markets Union, which will be a key step in completing the EU Single Market. I concluded that the integration of the capital markets will be a strong step in supporting economic growth and competitiveness in the EU in the long run.
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