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IDEAS in AGORA: Decision-Making Risk: The Difference Between Risk And Uncertainity In Economic Activities

100%
Vasilcovschi N., Munteanu G.
Human and Social Studies
|
2014
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vol. 3
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issue 2
34-46
EN
Economic activities are always supposed to carry with them the risk of market. Our area of research is concerned with what is known as the model of risk decisions at the level of economic activity; a model that can be valuable at any point of economic development. In our research, we present important aspects of risk in taking decisions in the previous and current dynamics of the market. The conditions of taking decisions with potential risks provide decision-makers with the possibility to analyze and calculate risk in order to know what can be gained and lost. In our paper, we present a short description of a different model of risk in economic activity and of decision-making risk, providing examples that have been offered by various authors. For example, Friedman and Savage present the utility function of an economic agent and its availability to accept the risk, while Markowitz defines utility in terms of winning or losing. Our paper starts with a presentation of the quantification of risk in economic activity. In the second part, we present a model of decision-making risk that is applied in economic activities and the difference between risk and uncertainty.
2
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Problemy wspomagania podejmowania decyzji w bezpieczeństwie

84%
Kołodziński E., Lachowicz T., Tomczyk Ł., Zapert P.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2015
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vol. 235
113-131
PL
W artykule rozpatrzono podstawowe problemy występujące w zarządzaniu bezpieczeństwem i kierowaniu ratownictwem. Powszechna losowość w bezpieczeństwie dotycząca: zagrożeń i podatności na nie podmiotu, skutków zagrożeń, kosztów zapobiegania im i reagowania w przypadku wystąpienia itd. to czynniki, które powodują ryzyko podejmowanych decyzji. Zdefiniowano pojęcie ryzyka w bezpieczeństwie i jego miary. Zaproponowano postać miary jakości decyzji w zagadnieniach bezpieczeństwa, uwzględniającą ryzyko jej podjęcia. Dokonano analizy możliwości i uwarunkowań wykorzystania w zarządzaniu bezpieczeństwem i kierowaniu ratownictwem: optymalizacji wielokryterialnej, analiz sieciowych, symulacji komputerowej, metod eksperckich, systemów ekspertowych oraz systemów wnioskowania przez analogię i komputerowego wspomagania ich wyznaczania.
EN
In this paper the fundamental problems in the management of safety and directing rescue systems were considered. The factors that cause risks in decisionmaking include: the common randomness in safety, concerning the risks and vulnerability of the entity, the effects of threat, the costs of prevention and response in case of the event, and so on. The notion of risk in safety and its measure were defined, and proposed the form of quality decision-making measurement in safety, taking into account the risk of its undertaking. It was analyzed the possibilities and conditions of use in safety management and directing rescue systems: multi-criterial optimization, network analysis, computer simulation, expert methods, expert systems and systems of analogy reasoning, and computer support in their designation.
3
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Optymalizacja wielokryterialna decyzji w zagadnieniach bezpieczeństwa funkcjonowania podmiotu

84%
Lachowicz T.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2015
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vol. 235
144-158
PL
W pracy rozpatrzono problemy związane z wyznaczaniem optymalnych decyzji zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa funkcjonowania podmiotu. Zaproponowano wieloskładnikową miarę jakości decyzji w zagadnieniach bezpieczeństwa. Dokonano analizy podstawowych metod optymalizacji wielokryterialnej pod kątem ich zastosowania w zarządzaniu bezpieczeństwem. Wpływ metody optymalizacji na wybór decyzji optymalnej spośród dopuszczalnych zilustrowano na przykładzie zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa aglomeracji położonej w dolinie, przez którą przepływa rzeka.
EN
This paper analyzes the optimization of decisions regarding an entity's operational safety based on a multicriteria measure of decision quality. The adopted measure of decision quality comprises the following components: losses borne by an entity, decision-making cost and risk. Basic multicriteria optimization methods were analyzed to evaluate their suitability for internal safety management and rescue operation management. The effect of the optimization method on the choice of an optimal decision was illustrated on the example of an urban agglomeration situated in a valley intersected by a river.
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