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1

Determinanty długu publicznego w Polsce

100%
Stryjewski T.
Roczniki Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej w Toruniu
|
2011
|
issue 10
183-196
EN
The crisis, which had its beginning in 2007, turned into the debt crisis of the countries. The examples of Greece, Ireland, Iceland or Spain showed the category of public debt in a new light. Poland, at the turn of 2010/2011 also achieved the upper level of public debt acceptable by the law. In the present situation of the European Union countries being in debt, and even insolvent, the situation in Poland becomes riskier. This article attempts at an empirical verification of the determinants of Polish public debt within 95 months (the data link with the period of time from January 2003 to November 2010). The verification of the main factors which cause the formation of public debt takes place by means of an appropriately verified econometric model.
2

MODEL HERMIN

80%
Kvetan V., Mlýnek M., Radvanský M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2006
|
vol. 54
|
issue 10
994-1008
EN
The planning policy evaluation and verification of the assumed policy impact on the economic development is the main purpose of HERMIN model construction. Preparation of the National Development Plan (NDP) of Slovak republic (NSRR), co-financed by the European Union funds, was the main cause for construction of HERMIN model of the Slovak Economy. The construction and estimation of this model is discussed in the first half of this paper while the second half consists of the evaluation of three variants of the Slovak National Development Plan and the policy implications. As previous studies have shown, the main question of NDP is not the magnitude of the reallocations but its structure. In this respect, the results of this paper seem to be consistent with the other empirical findings.
3

A METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING VECTORS OF OBSERVATIONS ON VARIABLES WITH THE GIVEN CORRELATION MATRIX

80%
Westa M.
Przegląd Statystyczny
|
2008
|
vol. 55
|
issue 3
61-70
EN
In the paper, it was proposed a method for constructing the vectors of observations on the variables, such that the given positive semi-definite symmetric matrix, which has the following properties: - all elements on the main diagonal are units; - all elements outside the main diagonal are not greater than one in absolute value, is their correlation matrix.
4

MODELS OF DEMAND FOR PASSENGER CARS ON THE PRIMARY MARKET IN POLAND IN YEARS 2004-2009 (Modele popytu na samochody osobowe na rynku pierwotnym w Polsce w latach 2004-2009)

80%
Swietlik K. M.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2009
|
vol. 12
|
issue 3(44)
EN
Primary automotive market is very important in modern economies and their level of prosperity. As the result of global economic crisis in years 2007-2009 the richest countries in the world launched the government subsidies' programs for purchases of cars in the primary market. In Great Britain, such aid amounted to about 10 billion pounds, in France the state paid extra 1.5 thousand euros to purchase a new car and in Germany - 2.5 thousand euros, which cost country budget 5 billion euros. These actions are evidence of the importance of car sales for the country's GDP. This article presents the changes in the size and structure of demand for passenger cars in Poland in the years 2004-2009. It analyzes the causes of changes in customer interest in new vehicles on the Polish market. The author put special emphasis on the effect of coexistence of primary and secondary markets for automobiles and the indisputable importance of the level of income. He also proposed a simple econometric model that describes the impact of key determinants of demand in the primary market. Model for all examined brands and models of vehicles was estimated and interpreted. The analysis suggests that demand for new cars is a very complex phenomenon. The difficulty of analyzing this process is mainly due to the number of coexisting factors. The model allowed determining statistically significant impact of selected determinants of this demand.
5

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT. AN ATTEMPT TO QUANTIFY MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF CRIME IN POLAND (Zbrodnia i kara. Próba kwalifikacji makroekonomicznych uwarunkowan przestepczosci w Polsce)

80%
Florczak W.
Ekonomista
|
2009
|
issue 4
479-515
EN
Identification and quantification - on a macro-level - of factors determining crime in Poland in the years 1970-2005 was carried out in the article, with an emphasis given to the deterrence effect. The narration is illustrated with appropriate examples, with Poland being a benchmark. At the stage of equations' specification - which was supported by referring to recognized theories of crime - no initial gradation was done with respect to relative significance of possible determinants of crime, the effect of which was implementation of stepwise regression. The following types of crime were subject to investigation: (i) total, (ii) violent crimes, (iii) property crimes, (iv) other crimes, and (v) total social costs of crime. In the light of the obtained results, the causes of the increasing crime should be associated in the first place with deteriorating social development - among which economic inequality plays the leading role - as well as with lenient penitentiary policies. This cannot be counterbalanced by economic growth solely, which reduces the scale of crime.
6

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF POLISH HOUSEHOLDS' DEPOSITS AND CREDITS IN THE YEARS 2000-2009 (Ekonometryczna analiza depozytów i kredytów gospodarstw domowych w Polsce w latach 2000-2009)

70%
Swietlik K. M.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2010
|
vol. 13
|
issue 3(48)
128-139
EN
The article presents changes which occurred in the years 2000-2009 in savings and credits of Polish households registered by Polish National Bank. Particular emphasis is put on changes observed in time of real estates market boom in the years 2006-2008, and on effects of crisis in the years 2008-2009. The main aim of analysis was construction of econometric models describing influence of chosen macroeconomic factors on households' decisions of savings and taking credits in Poland. Therefore statistical analysis of chosen determinants was carried out and single-equation models of deposits and credits were estimated and verified for monthly data. Each model turned out to be numerically and statistically proper and each shows essential impact of taken determinants on analysed phenomena.
7

SPOTREBNÁ FUNKCIA AKO NÁSTROJ NA RÝCHLY ODHAD KONEČNEJ SPOTREBY DOMÁCNOSTI

61%
Haluška J.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2011
|
vol. 59
|
issue 4
337 – 354
EN
The flash estimates of main macroeconomic indicators represent an integral part of officially available statistical information in countries of EU-27. They are compiled by means of model tools in countries of the former EU-15 and the same standard should be achieved also in other countries of the current EU-27. In Slovakia, the econometric modelling started in this field in 2004. The main objective of this activity is to create a specific model framework supporting the preparation of flash estimates for GDP and some other basic macroeconomic indicators of the Slovak economy. In the article the methodological approach and two econometric-type models based on quarterly data in the form of Error Correction Model (ECM) are presented and interpreted. As far as explanatory variables are concerned, it is important, that they are all available before the flash estimates in reference quarter are compiled.
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