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MEASURING MONETARY POLICY IN EMERGING ECONOMY: THE ROLE OF MONETARY CONDITION INDEX

100%
Thanh Trung B.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2022
|
vol. 70
|
issue 6
499 – 522
EN
Measuring the stance of monetary policy is of importance for the analysis and implementation of monetary policy. In emerging economies, the popular use of multiple instrument framework as well as the significance of interest rate channel and exchange rate channel implies that monetary condition index (MCI) can play an important role in evaluating the timing of tightening or loosing monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the role of MCI as an overall measure of monetary policy in emerging economy that follow inflation targeting by using the VAR model. The weight of MCI components, exchange rate and interest rate, is derived from the inflation equation in the VAR model. It shows that exchange rate plays a significant role but its weight is less than that of interest rate in most emerging economies. Furthermore, the empirical results show that inflation shows a reduction after a contractionary shock of monetary policy in most emerging economies. The finding implies that MCI is a useful indicator that can predict changes in the stance of monetary policy and the trend in inflation.
2

IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EMERGING EU COUNTRIES

88%
Mihajloviċ V., Miladinov G.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2024
|
vol. 72
|
issue 1-2
50 – 71
EN
This study aims to investigate the effect of one of the most prominent contemporary changes in demographic structure, population ageing, on the economic performance of eight emerging economies from Central and Eastern Europe. Despite experiencing relatively high economic growth, these countries are still striving to catch up with the more advanced European economies. Concurrently, they are facing significant population ageing. Using the Pooled Mean Group estimator in the panel ARDL model, the study finds that a one percent increase in the old dependency ratio results in a 0.52 percent decrease in GDP per capita growth rate and a 0.53 percent decrease in GDP growth rate in the long term. The gross capital formation rate and the gross savings positively impact per capita economic growth in the short term, whereas the labour force participation rate’s impact on the GDP growth varies across the country groups. The findings underscore the importance of implementing active ageing programs, creating fiscal buffers, fostering life-long learning, and promoting employment among vulnerable groups to mitigate the adverse effects of population ageing on economic growth in emerging economies.
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