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Annales Scientia Politica
|
2022
|
vol. 11
|
issue 2
63 - 82
EN
This article offers an analysis of the scenarios of outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war and their impact on European security. The basis of each scenario is a definition of the interests of both Russia and Ukraine in this war, a hypothetical description of the assumptions of their fulfilment (full success of one or the other country in the war or partial success) and, at the same time, the expected impact of the full or partial success of one or the other country, i.e., direct actors of the war, on the international order. The scenario analysis is based on an examination of the course of fighting in the period from the beginning of the Russian invasion on the 24th February (until the end of November) to identify the degree of probability of the fulfilment of each scenario.
EN
The article discusses various conditions of security environment with respect to the Republic of Poland after its accession to the European Union. The main aim of the paper is to fi nd the answer to the question if membership in the EU helped Poland to strengthen its international position and develop its security system. It will also focus on the changes’ trend in the security area – what are the determinants of changes. The author will try to illustrate main reasons why Poland failed to fully benefit from its membership in the EU with respect to improvement of the level of its security as well as realization of the international roles in the region.
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