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EN
The paper shows how the original semi endogenous and balanced growth model of Phelps (1966), and my extended version of it (Gomulka, 1990), could be useful in explaining the key ‘stylized facts’ of global long-term growth so far, and in predicting its dynamics in the future. During the last two centuries the sector of R&D and education, producing qualitative changes, has been expanding in the world’s most developed countries much faster than the sector producing conventional goods. The extended model is used to explore and evaluate. the consequences for the global long-term growth of the end of this unbalanced growth, of the completion of the catching up by most of the world’s less developed countries, and of the expected eventual stabilization of the size of the world population. The theory yields a thesis, new in the literature, that the rate of global per capita GDP growth will eventually return to the historically standard very low level, thus implying that the world’s technological revolution is going to be an innovation super-fluctuation.
EN
The determinants of economic growth have been a much debated theoretical issue in the literature, especially after the endogenous growth theory of the late 1980s. This new theory highlights the importance of economic policies that lead to an increasing rate of return. In particular, it is argued that human capital, trade liberalization and financial development may play very important roles in the determination of economic growth. This paper tries to empirically estimate the joint impacts of trade liberalization and financial development on economic growth for the period 1960-2004. Instead of using common proxies for the issue, principal components analysis is employed to develop better measures (indexes) for trade liberalization, financial development and the joint effects of both. The empirical results obtained from the Johansen co-integration procedure show that trade liberalization, financial development and the joint impacts of both positively contributed to economic growth in Turkey for the period 1963-2005.
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