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  1. 2 Studia Ekonomiczne

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  1. 1 Kuźmiński Ł.

  2. 1 Zieliński T.

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  1. 2 2014

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Zastosowanie teorii wartości ekstremalnych w prognozowaniu ostrzegawczym w hydrologii dla ciągu niezależnych zmiennych o rozkładzie logarytmiczno-normalnym

100%
Kuźmiński Ł.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2014
|
vol. 207
148-158
PL
Opracowanie dotyczy zastosowań teorii granicznych rozkładów dla ekstremów w prognozach ostrzegawczych dla ciągu zmiennych losowych o rozkładzie logarytmiczno- normalnym. Początek pracy zawiera elementy teorii dotyczącej statystyk pozycyjnych. W dalszej części przedstawiono podstawowe twierdzenia związane z teorią rozkładów typów ekstremalnych i dziedzin przyciągania. Na koniec zaprezentowano badania empiryczne, w których zbudowano model prognoz ostrzegawczych dla charakterystyk hydrologicznych. Wykorzystane w pracy dane dotyczą stanów wód na wybranej rzece Dolnego Śląska.
EN
The work applies to the application of the theory of limit distributions for extremes in warning predictions for the random variables sequences with lognormal distribution. The beginning of the work contains theory components concerned order statistics. In the next part of the work basic theorems connected to the theory of types distributions and gravity areas are presented. At the end of the work empirical research are presented, in which a model of warning predictions for hydrological characteristic is being built. Details, used in the work concern water conditions at one, selected river of Lower Silesia.
2
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Testy warunków skrajnych w ocenie adekwatności kapitałowej banku

63%
Zieliński T.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2014
|
vol. 186 cz 1
304-320
EN
Capital adequacy of the bank is only theoretical concept. In conditions of extreme complexity of banking activity as well as its market environment, it's impossible to ensure, that in case of bankruptcy, the bank is able to fully satisfy all of its external obligations. Contemporary, prudential regulations tend to improve regulatory framework of calculating economic capital in possibly the most perfect way. Providing coverage of economic capital in own funds, bank ensures the best safeguard for its stability. Unfortunately, all capital measures appear to be highly imperfect because of inconsistency of stylized statistical models with much more complex reality. One of the relatively new solutions, which are expected to improve the foregoing methodology, became stress testing method. Its role is to take into account not only typical risks events, but also those that may occur with a very little probability, but which may also result with serious losses. The main target for this paper is to introduce basic ideas of stress testing, to present fundamental rationales and to confront its pros and cons.
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