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EMU - Fiscal Challenges: Conclusions for the New Members of the EU

100%
Bukowski S.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
|
2004
|
issue 15
35-56
EN
The aim of the paper is to evaluate the fiscal challenges which have appeared before EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) countries after four years of monetary union functioning. Then the author formulates conclusions for accession countries, which plan to be members of EMU in the near future. The first part of the paper deals with criteria of fiscal stabilization within EMU, taken from the Pact of Stabilization and Growth and in the Maastricht Treaty, their meaning and connections with economic growth.They concern: (1) budged deficit, whose relation to the GDP should be no higher than 3%; (2) public debt, whose relation to the GDP should be no higher than 60%. Special procedure and sanctions are forecasted in case of a country which does not respect those criteria. It fundamentally limits possibilities of using fiscal policy to stabilize economy after the economic shocks. On the other hand, the fiscal criteria have also positive influence, because of implementation of discipline to the economic policy. At that point, a contradiction between short or medium period of economic policy and long period in policymaker's actions appears. After four years of EMU functioning, budged deficit and public debt have appeared as challenges again. Those selected countries are: Portugal, Germany and France. Reasons of budged deficit and public debt are different in each country. An explanation may be found in processes of adjustment to the Maastricht criteria in the period of the 90's. Research by M. Demertzis, M. Hallet and A.H. Rummel indicates that the convergence degree, which was revealed by fulfilling the Maastricht criteria at the end of the 90's resulted from applying appropriate instruments of economic policy rather than from natural convergence processes in the area of economic and structural adjustments. Their authors also emphasise that although politics helped to create conditions which enabled the existence of the Economic and Monetary Union, from that time on the whole project has depended on the impact of all political changes. In the case of fiscal stabilization, governments of many EMU countries increased tax burden rather than cut the budged expenditure to achieve lower deficit.Recession which has started from 2000 is another problem. Especially deep recession has appeared in Germany. One of the reasons is rigidity of German economy and lack of deep public finance reform. The prospect of EMU is dependent on economic reforms in member countries. One of them is deep reform of public finance structure. The new member countries of the EU are facing the necessity of economic adjustment to the convergence criteria, and among them criteria of fiscal stabilization. Thus fiscal stabilization should be the result of deep changes in the structure of public finance and tax systems.
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FISCAL AND BUDGETARY POLICIES AND THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OF POLISH AGRICULTURE (Polityka fiskalna i budzetowa a finanse polskiego rolnictwa)

100%
Kulawik J.
Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej
|
2009
|
issue 4(321)
21-39
EN
Fiscal and budgetary policies are the basic instruments used by public authorities to influence finances of agricultural sector. Each time these policies are shaped - the outcome is a result of changing social preferences and forces among key political actors. This leads to a situation, where both fiscal policy and budgetary policy remain of national nature and are subject to political cycle rules. Farmers, however, have developed the mechanisms of political over-representation well, but the group will most probably also be affected by fiscal adjustments, which are planned as budgetary instruments of current market stimulation programmes. Polish agriculture continues to increase the surplus of funds generated therein, despite a small slowdown. This rate would be even slower if it were not for domestic and EU subsidies. There dependencies are a particular reason to worry if you consider that after 2013 net payers to the EU budget will wish to radically limit their contribution, while Poland will most probably be facing considerable fiscal problems if it decides to introduce the euro currency, while economic growth fails to accelerate considerably.
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The political economy of budgetary deficit

100%
Benczes I.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2008
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vol. 55
|
issue 3
218-232
EN
Neither Keynesian nor Neoclassical theory managed to explain adequately the increasingly typical state of chronic budgetary deficit found in developed industrial countries since the 1970s. But the new political economy seems to have revealed the causes of the chronic deficit and mounting indebtedness and of the reasons for the marked differences in fiscal-policy performance between countries and periods. The success can be ascribed primarily to the fact that the new political economy turned to the political and institutional constraints on the formation of budgetary policy, with the unconcealed aim of broadening the bounds of mainstream economics and building the policy-making process into it. The study examines four comprehensive explanations: 1. strategic use of debt stock, 2. postponement of stabilization, 3. differences of political and electoral systems, and 4. weak or fragmented executive power, with the clear intention of complementing the customary positive analysis with a normative examination.
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Poland's Fiscal Policy in the Light of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)

100%
Samojlik B.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
|
2004
|
issue 14
43-78
EN
The place and importance of the fiscal criteria and the excessive deficit procedures (EDP) within the set of the Maastricht convergence criteria, as well as their basic importance for the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) were presented. Also, the evolution of the attitude of the EU zone countries towards these criteria before and after the birth (1999) of the euro zone was shown. The extent was examined to which the Maastricht Treaty criteria and the SGP provisions were applied in the period of 1999–2003 by the EU organs when assessing the fiscal policy of individual countries under the excessive deficit procedure. Despite the fact that the admissible ceiling of the deficit-to-GDP ratio had repeatedly been considerably overstepped by the majority of the euro zone countries, no sanctions or penalties were ever applied. The EU organs confined themselves only to the so-called early warning to the countries concerned. The primary reason for the EU organs' abstention from applying the Treaty criteria and the SGP provisions was the fact that the Maastricht Treaty had adopted the nominal deficit as the basis for the assessment whether and to what extent the given country had infringed the fiscal discipline. Whereas, in a situation where the GDP is growing more slowly than the potential rate of growth, it is necessary, in order to avoid adverse consequences of a restrictive fiscal policy, to be guided by the structural rather than nominal deficit. Despite the infringement of the principle of avoiding an excessive deficit by the biggest euro zone countries and the lack, even in cases of drastic infringement of the fiscal discipline, of applying the sanctions and penalties foreseen by the Excessive Deficit Procedure, both the EDP and the Stability and Growth Pact have fulfilled their function of non-discretionary tools of public finance improvement both in the euro zone and throughout the EU, as the ED procedure applies to all the EU member countries. It was against this background that the Polish programme of fiscal convergence for 1995-1997, being a part of the general convergence programme filed in connection with the country's EU accession, was analyzed. The analysis has shown that, among the tasks under the above convergence programme, there are some that can prove to be very difficult to implement: 1- the adjustment of the Polish regulations (inclusive of the constitutional provisions) governing the position of the central bank to the requirements of the Maastricht Treaty, the ECB constitution and the statutes of the European System of Central Banks; 2- the need to accept after 2007, i.e. at the time when Poland's membership of the euro zone can become practical, that the Open Pension Funds (OPFs) do not make a part of the public sector and, consequently, the resources gathered by them are not public funds and, thereby, the liabilities of the Social Insurance Fund to the OPFs are public liabilities that augment the ratio of the public sector deficit and the public debt to the GDP.
5

FISCAL POLICY UNDER ALTERNATIVE FISCAL DISCIPLINE REGIMES IN A CURRENCY UNION

100%
Zeyneloglu I.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2018
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vol. 66
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issue 2
159 – 180
EN
The present paper uses a two-country overlapping generation framework in order to assess the implications of the degree of fiscal discipline on the fiscal policy effectiveness in a currency union. The results show that, initially, a fiscal stimulus implemented under the condition of returning to a balanced budget leads to a higher increase in per capita output and consumption compared to a fiscal expansion with permanently higher public debt. However, in the medium run, the strict fiscal discipline case leads to an output recession despite the increase in private per capita consumption whereas a loosening of the fiscal discipline helps avoid the recession at the cost of higher public debt. The overlapping-generations framework shows also the demographic impact on the fiscal policy effectiveness under different degrees of fiscal discipline.
6
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Ewolucja reguł fiskalnych zawartych w korekcyjnej części Paktu Stabilności i Wzrostu

100%
Bielawska K.
Zarządzanie i Finanse
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2012
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vol. 4
|
issue 1
37-51
EN
Fiscal crisis in the EU revealed the ineffectiveness of the methods of coordination and supervision of fiscal policies conducted by the member states. The last revision of the Stability and Growth Pact in 2011, including its corrective arm, introduced many corrections to the application of fiscal rules. The adjustment of the fiscal rules promotes their greater flexibility, takes into account the medium-term objective (MTO) of fiscal policy pursued by member states and increases the probability of use of sanctions for non-compliance. The strength of fiscal rules changes however, will depend on the automatically imposed sanctions and on proper implementation of the rules into the national regulations.
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THE EFFECTIVENESS OF AUTOMATIC STABILIZERS IN POLAND

100%
Krajewski P.
Studia Ekonomiczne (Economic Studies)
|
2005
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issue 4(47)
321-340
EN
The aim of the article is the estimation of the automatic stabilizers effectiveness in Poland. Calculations were based on quarterly data from the years 1995-2002 whereas the estimations of the automatic stabilizers effectiveness - on GDP elasticities of public revenues and expenditures and their impact on aggregate demand. It is estimated that automatic stabilizers in Poland smooth about 18% of GDP fluctuation. It is also shown that effectiveness of automatic stabilizers differs for different kinds of public revenues and expenditures. It can be enhanced by increasing corporate income tax and unemployment benefits, because both corporate income tax revenues and unemployment benefits are very sensitive to economic activity fluctuations.
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ESTIMATING FISCAL REACTION FUNCTIONS FOR DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL THRESHOLD ANALYSIS

80%
Turan T., Varol Iyídogan P.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
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2022
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vol. 70
|
issue 5
393 – 410
EN
Using a dynamic threshold regression method to estimate fiscal reaction functions, this paper examines the response of the primary surplus, government expenditure, and government revenue to the public debt for a large sample of countries over the period 2000 – 2018. Our empirical results lend a strong evidence for the dynamic threshold specification. Governments implement a sustainable fiscal policy until reaching the threshold level, but beyond this level the primary balance does not react to changes in public debt in developing countries. On the other hand, for developed countries, primary balance gives a negative (positive) response to an increase in the public debt when the debt is lower (higher) than the threshold level. Moreover, it seems that the primary balance is countercyclical. Besides the primary surplus, investigating the response of government expenditure and revenue provides valuable insights on the fiscal policy. Finally, dividing our sample as pre- and post-crisis periods we uncover some important changes in the fiscal policy after the last global financial crisis.
9

Tax Expenditure Budget: the Polish Experience

80%
Dziemianowicz R.
Optimum. Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2012
|
issue 5(59)
48-66
EN
Seeking the solutions which increases fiscal discipline, is the subject of particular in-terest in last years. It’s such more remarkable in terms of global financial crisis condi-tions, when possibilities of gaining revenues are significantly limited and, on the other hand, public debts of most countries are growing rapidly. Therefore all public spending, even indirect ones – including tax expenditures, should be monitored. It allows govern-ments to compare the real costs of various public programs, also makes possible appro-priate management of public finance and eventually, to seek more effective solutions. This paper presents the theory behind the concept of tax expenditures, as well as the different definitions of the notion employed by countries which produce tax expenditure reports. The authors discuss the need for a common definition of „benchmark tax” – a reference point for identification of tax expenditures and international comparisons. An-other purpose of the article is to present the way in which the idea of tax expenditures was implemented in the Polish report on tax preferences and to assess the budgetary ef-fects of tax expenditures.
10

MUNICIPAL BORROWINGS AS AN INSTRUMENT OF SUPPORTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

80%
Korenyako M. G.
Rehionalna ekonomika
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2008
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issue 4(50)
32-37
EN
The sources of financing of local infrastructure by the issue of local state bonds as alternative to the bank and budgetary financing are examined. An assessment of current status of the market of municipal borrowings in Ukraine has been carried out. Analysisi of risks and benefits of local borrowings based on the experience of other middle-income countries has been conducted.
11

The structure of Hungarian public revenue and expenditure, 1991-2004

80%
Benedek D., Lelkes O., Scharle A., Szabo M.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
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vol. 53
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issue 2
119-143
EN
The article describes the structure of government revenues and expenditures in Hungary, using aggregate statistics for the years between 1991 and 2003. This leads to four important observations: (1) Taxes on capital are relatively low, which may be justified in the short run by the need to encourage investment and hence accelerate the convergence to EU income levels. (2) The structure of revenues approaches the European Union's average in most dimensions. The exception to this is the distribution of taxes on capital and labour: taxes on capital are lower, while taxes and social-security contributions levied on labour are much higher than in most EU member-states, which is likely to create an incentive for unregistered employment. (3) The levels of expenditures and of public consumption are high, which may slow economic growth. Finally (4), the combined redistributive effects of revenues and expenditures seem to favour middle or high-income groups (as compared to low-income groups) more than in other EU countries.
12

Fiscal Policy's Long-term Influence on Investment Rate

80%
Krajewski P., Mackiewicz M.
Ekonomista
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2007
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issue 2
181-198
EN
The study aimed at establishing the long-term influence of fiscal policy on investments in fixed assets. A cross-sectional sample of data covering 27 countries during 1960 - 2003 was used. It was found that an increase in deficit equal to 1 % of GDP decreases investments by 0.3 % of GDP, while 1 % increase in revenue of public finance sector corresponds to a decrease in investments equal to 0.2 % of GDP. The study results suggest that both, expansive fiscal policy, as well as the increase of the share of public sector in the economy, correspond, as a rule, to a reduction in long-term asset accumulation, which in turn, might negatively affect economic growth in longer perspective.
13

The Stabilization and Growth Pact in the light of the new EU member-states

80%
Orban G., Szapary G.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2004
|
vol. 51
|
issue 9
810-831
EN
The paper sets out to examine the fiscal characteristics of new members in the light of the requirements of the SGP and criticisms levelled against the pact, and to see in what ways new members' initial conditions differ from those faced by current Euro-zone countries, in the run-up to adoption of the Euro. Overall, because of the lower debt levels and greater yield convergence already achieved, the new members will be able to rely less on gains from yield convergence than the current Euro-zone members were able to do. EU accession will also have a negative net impact on the budgets of new members in the early years of membership. The authors look at the cyclical sensitivities of the budgets and find that for new members, the smoothing capacity of the automatic stabilizers may be weaker than for current Euro-zone members. Also emphasized, apart from these general characteristics, are large differences in the starting fiscal positions of new members. Some policy implications of these findings are discussed.
14

Reinterpretation of the factors influencing capital imports into Hungary

80%
Katona K.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
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vol. 53
|
issue 11
986-1001
EN
The study sets out to identify the factors that have helped to sustain Hungary's competitiveness on the capital market and influenced the arrival of capital investments in the country in the last decade and a half. An important group among the factors emphasized in the literature consists of the elements of the UNCTAD index of capital attraction, but the macro factors included in this do not cover the major decisive elements that have been central to attracting foreign investors into this region. These are privatization, fiscal policy, and the quality and structure of labour.
15

Redistributive fiscal policy in an open economy.

80%
Szilagyi K.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
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2006
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vol. 53
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issue 4
330-348
EN
The study examines the effect of an expansive fiscal policy on a small open economy through a two-sector real model. The budget policy in the model redistributes the resources: the state budget is expansive if it enhances this redistribution. It is shown that in this case - given realistic assumptions of the consumption structure of those injured and those benefited by the redistribution - a two-sector real model is capable of illustrating many observations (stylized facts) seen as customary in the literature. The model is not calibrated, for its operation is a outline example, a numerical exercise in approximate qualitative description of certain experienced characteristics, and it cannot be viewed as an adjusted simulation of the actual economy. However, it is argued that in this simple, rudimentary form, it can be an interesting illustration, even for evaluating recent developments in Hungary.
16

VOLATILITY OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES AND LONG RUN GROWTH (Niestabilnosc wydatków publicznych a dlugookresowy wzrost gospodarczy)

80%
Siwinska-Gorzelak J.
Ekonomista
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2010
|
issue 2
175-188
EN
The impact of public expenditures' volatility on the long run growth rate of GDP is a topic not often discussed in the literature. Nevertheless, the results of exiting works uniformly indicate that expenditures' volatility is detrimental for long run growth. The main goal of this work is to reassess this empirical link. The main novelty of this paper is that besides using cross section data, it also employs panel data to show that indeed this relationship is statistically significant and negative.
17

Performance of Fiscal Policy in an Economic and Monetary Union

80%
Konopczynski M.
Ekonomista
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2006
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issue 5
619-646
EN
We analyze the efficacy of fiscal policy of a small economy being a member of economic and monetary union. Basing our research on simple static and dynamic macroeconomic models we demonstrate that fiscal policies might display positive effects in the short run, but with time, positive effects of fiscal expansion tend to vanish or even might produce undesired results. That conclusion is arrived thanks to the application of a dynamic numerical simulation of the fiscal impulse. Spectacular results of fiscal policies pursued by a given country in the short run, resulting in economic upturn, are achieved in part, at the expense of other members of the monetary union. Policy makers, being guided by short-term benefits, might engineer a situation in which to the reduction in budgetary revenues does not correspond an adequate reduction in expenditures. We argue that it is indispensable to safeguard the adherence to the constraints agreed to in the Pact of Stability and Growth irrespective of political difficulties that might ensue.
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On Patterns in Economic Data and Monetary Councils Decisions

80%
Koloch G., Kozlowski W., Piekos P.
Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
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2007
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vol. 17
187-202
EN
In the paper an attempt to identify decision rules which emulate policy decisions of monetary councils (councils) in Poland, United States and Japan is presented. Policy decisions are defined as decisions concerning target interest rate changes. Generated decision rules emulate therefore monetary authorities' reaction function or policy rules. Accuracy of these rules is measured by the ratio of instances (decisions) correctly classified to the number of all instances under consideration. Generated rules are meaningful. Most of them can be interpreted in terms of stabilizing policy, which stimulates output or decelerates inflation dependent on the evolution of economic situation in the domestic economy. This is consistent with the goal of monetary policy, which is to stabilize prices and (in case of USA) output fluctuations.
19

Be on your guard! Cyclically adjusted budget deficit

80%
P-Kiss G., Vadas G.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2005
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vol. 52
|
issue 2
109-129
EN
Cyclically adjusted budget deficit (CAB) is a concept widely cited and used in evaluating fiscal situations. The key idea behind it is to separate temporary and/or non-discretionary effects on budget deficit from the underlying balance and/or effects of discretionary measures of fiscal policy. Computation of CAB is based on identification of the potential level of economic variables. In this paper, it is demonstrated that composition matters in the case of both real and nominal variables. The European Commission and the European Central Bank have each proposed methods for measuring CAB, but these are not fully capable of satisfying all requirements. Besides, results show that aggregated and disaggregated approaches provide different estimations, to the benefit of the latter. The paper presents an alternative method, able to incorporate the advantages of both approaches. Combining output gap from production function and constrained multivariate HP filter induces a theoretically motivated disaggregated approach that also exploits the implication of production-function parameterization. Taking into account the nominal features, for example, nominal elements of the tax code or deflators directly affected by the government, the more precise definition of discretionary measures became also important.
20

The operating mechanism of fiscal policy. Friction free models - supply effects.

80%
Pete P., Szilagyi K.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
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2006
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vol. 53
|
issue 2
97-118
EN
The article employs some well known types of macroeconomic model to draw attention to the possible supply side effects of fiscal expansion. These effects, mostly simplified or neglected in basic economic training, add new viewpoints to professional thinking on the operation of fiscal policy. The intention is to show that the strong statistical correlation between government expenditures and aggregate economic performance can be triggered by supply mechanisms as well. This is an important statement because the Keynesian IS- LM system has remained to this day the interpretative framework for examining fiscal policy mainly because of its empirical applicability in economic-policy and - with the spread of micro-based neo-Keynesian models - academic discourse. Yet it is far from clear what type or size of role or weight these play in the process of adaptation of nominal frictions to economic shocks. If the relation between government expenditures and output can also be shown in friction free models with perfect adjustment to prices, the analyses must clarify not only the adaptation difficulties, but the subsequent channels.
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