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1

Prognozy kombinowane wskaznikow makroekonomicznych z uzyciem danych z testow koniunktury

100%
Bialowolski P., Kuszewski T., Witkowski B.
Contemporary Economics
|
2010
|
issue 4(16)
41-58
EN
Current economic crisis shed dark light on the possibilities of creating a valuable and reliable short and medium term forecasts with the use of the most commonly applied econometric models in the structural or autoregressive form (SVAR, VAR), but also models of the general equilibrium (CGE, DSGE). The models failed to forecast especially at the verge of the crisis when the information on upcoming peak in the business cycle would be of the highest value. This situation was a stimulus to undertake research oriented at creating a family of models that would react faster and with higher precision to dynamic changes in the economic environment. As a result it is expected that a family of models will be specified, identified and estimated. They should provide leading and more accurate information on basic macroeconomic variables - GDP, unemployment and inflation. Each of the specifications will be subject to two objectives: (1) the minimum ex-ante forecast error and (2) immediate and reliable accessibility of data. The database applied in the procedure will comprise of time series from the Research Institute of Economic Development (RIED) on sentiment in manufacturing industry, households, trade and construction. The series on economic activity in Poland cover the period of 1995-2009.
2
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Kondycja i przyszłość polskiej gospodarki – rok 2011 i elementy prognozy na lata 2012–2013

100%
Chrościcki T.
Kontrola Państwowa
|
2012
|
vol. 57
|
issue 3(344)
86-107
EN
The author presents the condition of the Polish economy in 2011, and some forecasts as for its development in the next two years. His analysis is based on macroeconomic results presented by Polish bodies and institutions (the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Polish ministries and government agencies) and by international ones (the European Commission, Eurostat), in relation to the indicators of other European Union member states. The presentation comprises, among many, the volume of the achieved and forecast economic growth, GDP, changes in the consumption and investment demands, trends in the real economy, transformations in foreign trade, inflation processes, and the situation on the labour market. The author simultaneously takes into account international conditions, especially those that stem from the crisis in the Eurozone.
3

K TVORBE A VYUŽÍVANIU STRATÉGIÍ ROZVOJA

88%
Okáli I.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2012
|
vol. 60
|
issue 7
659 – 680
EN
The paper deals with development strategies as a tool of structural changes in the economy. The first part discusses the experience gained in creation development strategies of the Slovak economy after 2000. In the next section it devoted attention not only to differences between strategies, visions and forecasts, but also to their connections. There are considered rules of strategies – their relationship to economic research, combining analytical and synthetic viewpoints, interdisciplinary approach, variability of solutions, etc. A part of the article is an explanation of cognitive and practical functions of strategies studies. The conclusions look at strategies in the regulation of market economy and justify the need of their continuous innovation.
4

MIDTERM FORECAST OF SLOVAK ECONOMY FOR THE PERIOD 2010 - 2013 WITH OUTLOOK TO 2015

75%
Radvanský M., Pálenik V., Slobodníková S.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2010
|
vol. 58
|
issue 6
614-634
EN
Forecasting of future economic development quite a short time after the global economic crisis is more than a complicated task. The main uncertainty is linked to the process of recovery of the world economy from the crisis and the direction of governments' economic policies and their corresponding effectiveness. Nevertheless, it is necessary to develop such forecasts, to collect them and compare with different approaches of particular forecasting works. This article represents the approach of the team of the Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences. Forecast is based on the econometric model B_IER SAS ECM 09q4 and is focused on the GDP and its components, the labour market and public budget revenues. The time horizon is limited to years 2010 and 2015 and continues two years beyond the end of the financial programming period of the EU.
5

Zastosowanie modelu ARIMA do krótkookresowego prognozowania wielkości ruchu pasażerskiego na przykładzie Międzynarodowego Portu Lotniczego w Krakowie-Balicach

75%
Rudnicki M.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2012
|
issue 885
175-191
EN
The article sought to answer the question of whether the downward spiral of tourist traffic will continue at John Paul II International Airport Kraków-Balice in 2010. A revision of earlier forecasts drawn up at the end of 2009, the study also seeks to determine whether the number of guests served at the airport could return to the record 3 million passengers served in 2007. To this end, I introduce an analysis of the volume of tourist traffic for the years 2003–2009, based on passenger traffic statistics collected by the International Airport. The ARIMA model was used to produce forecasts for 2010. This study is extremely important because, as analysis shows, there is a direct correlation between the volume of passenger traffic at Kraków’s airport and the number of tourists in the city. Therefore, the results of this study may help identify the estimated volume of tourist traffic in Kraków in 2010, which is crucial to the tourism economy of the city and its inhabitants.
6

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVAKIA IN 2009

63%
Morvay K., Okali I., Gabrielova H., Hvozdikova V., Sikulova I., Frank K., Jeck T.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2010
|
vol. 58
|
issue 6
549-613
EN
After a rather long period of unprecedented economic growth, the Slovak Republic experienced an economic downturn in 2009. The small open economy, with an insufficient domestic market, responded sensitively to the slump in external demand. This was not the first serious destabilization of the Slovak economy, but the first one caused primarily by the external environment. Employment has been hit particularly hard by the recession, even though with a notable delay. The economy began to recover slowly in the first half of 2010; however the signs of recovery appear to differ considerably across sectors. The authors expect fragile recovery to continue further in 2010 (differentiated broadly by sectors), while the labour market development remains troubled. And with a certain time delay, the government's consolidation effort will probably enter this process.
7

HOUSING SECTOR-SPECIFIC DSGE MODEL WITH APPLICATIONS TO CZECH AND SLOVAK ECONOMIES

63%
Bouda M., Formánek T.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2014
|
vol. 62
|
issue 8
805 – 822
EN
In this paper, we introduce and use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored for analysis of small open economies, which is further amended to encompass housing sector-specific dynamics and to generate relevant insight and conditional forecasts for the housing sector. We analyse and compare the housing sector dynamic behaviour for the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic. The empirical part of our paper consists of Bayesian estimation and evaluation of the model, impulse response analysis and conditional forecasts under alternative macroeconomic policy scenarios. We find significant pro-volatile impact of higher loan to values (LTVs) for both economies analysed. This effect is observed both in IRFs and conditional forecasts calculated using different LTV-based scenarios.
8

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVAKIA IN 2012 AND OUTLOOK UP TO 2014

63%
Morvay K., Okáli I., Gabrielová H., Hvozdíková V., Šikulová I., Frank K., Jeck T.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2013
|
vol. 61
|
issue 8
767 – 845
EN
After the unexpectedly severe recession (2009) and equally unexpected recovery (2010), the Slovak economy balanced between recovery and a second recession for two years (2011 and 2012). The Slovak economy was more resilient against “the second wave of the crisis” than previously expected. Although the euro area was in recession in 2012, the Slovak economy grew (albeit slightly). However, after the significant deceleration of economic growth in the last quarter of 2012, the expectations of a recession have returned. After approximately one and a half year of waiting, the Slovak economy will be fully confronted with the second wave of the crisis. The economy cannot resist the second wave of the recession (which has already hit the euro area) forever. Significant slowdown hits the economy at a time when the euro area economy has started to improve gradually. This could mean that the significant decline in economic growth could be coupled with a possible alleviation of the difficulties.
9

HOSPODÁRSKY VÝVOJ SLOVENSKA V ROKU 2008

63%
Okáli I., Morvay K., Frank K., Gabrielová H., Jeck T., Šikulová I.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2009
|
vol. 57
|
issue 6
524-567
EN
In 2008, preservation of political stability in Slovakia was coupled with continuity in a quite satisfactory economic-policy framework's influence on the real economy. This has been reflected in GDP growth rate surpassing 6%, in the employment rate growing by 3.2% and real wages growth totalling to 3.3%, while at the same time Slovakia has managed to comply with all nominal convergence criteria, meeting the levels required for the Euro zone accession (from 1 January 2009). However, in consequence of the upcoming global economic crisis, the last quarter of 2008 brings a turnabout in the positive development trends also as regards the Slovak economy. Extremely open economy of the SR and its vulnerability to swings in the business cycle of the world economy eventuates in the fact that after an era of successful economic development in 2005 - 2008, the Slovak economy faces the most serious recession since its transformation depression (at the beginning of 90s) and that its recession will be one of the deepest among the EU countries, too. The article predicts GDP contraction by 6 - 7.5% in 2009, unemployment rate swelling to 11.2 - 12.5% and disinflation as a probable attendant phenomenon of the recession.
10

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVAKIA IN 2010 AND OUTLOOK UP TO 2012

51%
Morvay K., Okáli I., Gabrielová H., Hvozdíková V., Šikulová I., Frank K., Jeck T.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2011
|
vol. 59
|
issue 6
549 – 635
EN
Economic development of Slovakia in 2010 was marked by the decline of recession symptoms. Recession was replaced by a recovery, strongly differentiated by sectors. The economy has responded well to the signs of recovery in external demand. Change of the government has also brought economic policy changes, their impact was not shown fully in the same year. The effects of external environment were more significant. The labour market responded to the renewed performance growth with delay. The outlook reflects the expectation of continuing economic policy changes, including fiscal consolidation. The performance of the economy in 2011 will return to pre-recession levels, but some indicators will remain on the unfavourable level: the inflation revives, high unemployment rate will remain, the public debt will grow, and the wage growth will be probably weak. In 2012 the higher growth should be associated with a better state of balance. Very likely it will strengthen the catching-up process.
11

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVAKIA IN 2011 AND OUTLOOK UP TO 2013

51%
Morvay K., Okáli I., Gabrielová H., Hvozdíková V., Šikulová I., Frank K., Jeck T.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2012
|
vol. 60
|
issue 6
547 – 641
EN
After the start of recovery (in 2010) from previous recession, the development of the Slovak economy in 2011 became more volatile. In the first half of 2011 the positive tendencies continued and the economic development was more favourable than expected, in the second half of 2011 renewed concerns about a new recession emerged. In 2011, some significant changes in development tendencies occurred: the price level growth revived, the public finance balance improved and the employment growth was observed after a longer period. The impacts of debt crisis and the pessimism connected with it were at the time not as negative as expected earlier. Therefore, we are not seeing the recession as the most likely development scenario up to 2013. We are expecting that the economic development in the upcoming years will be accompanied by relatively weak economic growth, with some signs of instability. For the policy makers it will be important, in addition to the stabilization and public finance consolidation, to restore the confidence of economic agents in the economy.
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