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Market pressure on currencies in crises. Shadow exchange rate experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015

100%
Gruszczyński M., Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska K.
Journal of Economics and Management
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2017
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vol. 30
58-69
EN
Aim/purpose – The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach – The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively). Findings – The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously). Research implications/limitations – The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution – The original approach combines two important economic concepts – the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.
2
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Nominal exchange rates EUR/GRD and EUR/ITL in the context of leaving the euro zone by Greece and Italy

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Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska K., Gruszczyński M.
Journal of Economics and Management
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2021
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vol. 43
293-316
EN
Aim/purpose – The aim of this paper is to present two cases of crises in Greece and Italy and to evaluate the shadow exchange rates of hypothetical new currencies (re)introduced after Grexit and Italexit. Design/methodology/approach – Both shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of changes in foreign exchange reserves and interest rate differentials in the absence of an independent nomi-nal exchange rate. The research sample covers Greece in 1989-2020 and Italy in 1989-2020. Findings – The research presented the estimation of shadow exchange rates EUR/GRD and EUR/ITL during the euro zone membership period. Leaving the euro area one can expect the following market rates: EUR/GRD 600 and EUR/ITL 1850. That would mean 75% depreciation and 5% appreciation to the current euro parities EUR/GRD 340.75, and EUR/ITL 1936.27, respectively. Research implications/limitations – After potential Grexit Greek authorities could expect significant nominal depreciation of a new currency (or should introduce it with a substantial discount). In the case of Italexit, the new currency would preserve its nomi-nal value. The limitations of the research methodology are: a long period of the analysis covers structural changes of financial markets, crisis events, political factors (e.g., QE programs). Originality/value/contribution – The originality of this approach lies in the combina-tion of two important economic concepts – the idea of shadow exchange rate and the index of speculative pressure. Combined together they help to prepare the methodology of shadow exchange rates evaluation for currencies that are currently in the common currency system (e.g., currency union). These results can help in economic and political discussions on effects of leaving the currency union.
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The American real estate bubble - Trigger for the biggest financial crisis in the last century

88%
Gaber V., Gaber S., Gruevski I.
Perspectives of Innovations, Economics and Business
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2014
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vol. 14
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issue 1
21-27
EN
In the last years the world was faced with the worst economic crisis since the 1929-33 period which led to a significant decline in the global economy, tumultuous aftershocks of the financial and the real sector, significant shaking of confidence in financial institutions and the stability of the global financial system. This paper focuses on the crisis that began in the summer 2007 in U.S. when increased delinquency on the secondary market for mortgages created turbulence in the secondary market of securities covered by residential credits. The turbulence was then expanded to other markets securities, money market, financial institutions, with knock-on effects that are transmitted to all market segments, by involving the real sector. Under its global effect, this crisis was characterized as comprehensive, complex and global. This paper intends to detect the origin of this crisis and to analyze the potential government mistakes that led to the current world economic state.
4
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Kurs EUR/ITL w kontekście presji spekulacyjnej na włoskiego lira. Perspektywy opuszczenia przez Włochy strefy euro

63%
Gruszczyński M., Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska D.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2019
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vol. 389
7-19
PL
Wraz z narastaniem zadłużenia publicznego we Włoszech podnoszone są kwestie możliwego rozpadu strefy euro, wprowadzenia dwóch walut dla północy i południa czy przywrócenia lira włoskiego. Celem pracy było oszacowanie kursu cienia lira włoskiego względem euro w okresie członkostwa Włoch w strefie wspólnego pieniądza. Postawiona została następująca hipoteza badawcza: kurs cień poprawnie odwzorowuje potencjalny kurs rynkowy, który powinien być kwotowany po ponownym wprowadzeniu lira we Włoszech. W pracy zastosowano metodologię kursu cienia połączoną z koncepcją indeksu presji spekulacyjnej.
EN
Problems with rising of public debt and fiscal stability in Italy facilitated discussions about the disintegration of the euro zone, introduction two currencies for the north and south, or restoration of Italian lira. The aim of the study is to estimate the shadow exchange rate of Italian lira against the euro during Italy’s membership in the euro zone. The research hypothesis is that shadow exchange rate correctly estimates market rate during the era of controlled currency, suggesting new equilibrium rate after the introduction of Italian lira. The shadow exchange rate methodology combined with the concept of an index of speculative pressure was applied in this research.
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Waluty narodowe po opuszczeniu strefy euro. Kurs cień DEM/GRD w kontekście presji spekulacyjnej w latach 2001-2018

63%
Gruszczyński M., Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska K.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2018
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vol. 372
136-148
PL
Kryzysowi finansowemu w Grecji towarzyszyły rozważania na temat możliwości bankructwa kraju wchodzącego do strefy euro oraz konsekwencji związanych z wystąpieniem ze strefy wspólnej waluty. Istotną kwestią związaną z przywróceniem waluty narodowej jest jej nowy kurs, co zdeterminuje bilans kosztów i korzyści związanych z tym posunięciem. Celem niniejszej pracy jest estymacja kursu cienia drachmy greckiej względem marki niemieckiej podczas członkostwa Grecji w strefie euro. W pracy postawiono tezę, że kurs cień poprawnie odwzorowuje potencjalny kurs rynkowy, który powinien być kwotowany po wyjściu Grecji ze strefy wspólnej waluty. W pierwszej części przedstawiono dyskusję na temat bilansu Grexitu w kontekście wydarzeń kryzysowych lat 2009-2018. W części drugiej obliczono wartości kursu cienia DEM/GRD korzystając z indeksu presji spekulacyjnej.
EN
The financial crisis in Greece was accompanied by considerations regarding the bankruptcy of the Euro area member state and the consequences of leaving the EU zone. An important issue related to the reintroduction of the national currency is its new exchange rate, which will determine the balance of costs and benefits of this move. The aim of this work is to estimate the shadow exchange rate DEM/GRD during the membership of Greece in the euro area. The research hypothesis is that the shadow exchange rate more or less correctly estimates the potential market rate, which should be quoted after Grexit. The first part presents a discussion on the Grexit in the context of crisis events in 2009-2018. In the second part, the DEM/GRD shadow exchange rate was estimated using the speculative pressure index methodology.
6
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Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

63%
Reinhart C. M., Rogoff K. S.
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
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2015
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issue 2(4)
5-17
EN
Even after one of the most severe multi-year crises on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The current phase of the official policy approach is predicated on the assumption that debt sustainability can be achieved through a mix of austerity, forbearance and growth. The claim is that advanced countries do not need to resort to the standard toolkit of emerging markets, including debt restructurings and conversions, higher inflation, capital controls and other forms of financial repression. As we document, this claim is at odds with the historical track record of most advanced economies, where debt restructuring or conversions, financial repression, and a tolerance for higher inflation, or a combination of these were an integral part of the resolution of significant past debt overhangs.
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