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How far is this far? The duration of an economic cycle

100%
Brody A.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 5
452-464
EN
The study discusses the long-term characteristics of GDP growth, the economic cycle and its speed, and the time requirements of production. The wide dispersion in the rate of annual growth, as the reciprocal of the average rate of growth, is compared with the inertia found in the average length of the production cycle. An attempt is made to develop a long-term strategic outlook requisite for this.
2
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Trudny okres dla polskiej gospodarki - prognoza rozwoju w 2013 roku i kolejnych latach

80%
Orłowski W. M.
Kontrola Państwowa
|
2013
|
vol. 58
|
issue 4 (351)
113-122
EN
Although over the first months of 2013 a substantial slowdown could be observed, in the rest of the year the Polish economy may gradually improve its development. We should be, however, cautiously optimistic. Firstly, because even the forecasted GDP growth at one per cent is not absolutely sure. If the situation in the Western Europe, especially in Germany, is worse than expected, there can be no growth in Poland at all. Secondly, a one per cent economic growth is very little as for the needs of Poland. This is due to the high reserves of the work effectiveness of the Polish economy, which companies willingly take advantage of, and new workplaces are created only if the speed of GDP growth exceeds three or four per cent. Thirdly, a growth in production will probably be observed with a simultaneous clear drop of the national demand. And this means a very unfavourable growth structure from the perspective of public finance.
3

MIDTERM FORECAST OF SLOVAK ECONOMY FOR THE PERIOD 2010 - 2013 WITH OUTLOOK TO 2015

61%
Radvanský M., Pálenik V., Slobodníková S.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2010
|
vol. 58
|
issue 6
614-634
EN
Forecasting of future economic development quite a short time after the global economic crisis is more than a complicated task. The main uncertainty is linked to the process of recovery of the world economy from the crisis and the direction of governments' economic policies and their corresponding effectiveness. Nevertheless, it is necessary to develop such forecasts, to collect them and compare with different approaches of particular forecasting works. This article represents the approach of the team of the Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences. Forecast is based on the econometric model B_IER SAS ECM 09q4 and is focused on the GDP and its components, the labour market and public budget revenues. The time horizon is limited to years 2010 and 2015 and continues two years beyond the end of the financial programming period of the EU.
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