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O roli znawstwa politycznego w występowaniu efektu patrzenia wstecz

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Koszur J.
Psychologia Społeczna
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2009
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vol. 4
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issue 4(12)
239-254
EN
The studies sought to clarify whether political competence can attenuate hindsight bias in this domain. The first experiment indicated that hindsight bias occurred among political experts in political task and was stronger in the hypothetical than the memory design. In the second experiment political experts showed weaker hindsight bias than laymen (memory design); competence did not reduce the distortion in hypotheti¬cal design. The third study was conducted only in the hypothetical design. In the case of political materiał both groups of participants, with high and Iow level of knowledge, showed hindsight bias, however politi¬cal science students revealed a slightly weaker distortion. The psychological content yielded surprising results: the bias occurred only among psychological experts, but not among laymen. The experiments did not provide elear evidence about the role of political expertise in hindsight bias. Results are discussed in terms of the cognitive model SARA (Selective Activation, Reconstruction, and Anchoring) and motivational factors.
2

HINDSIGHT BIAS AND ITS REVERSAL: WHAT WILL TIME REVEAL?

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Konečný M., Bačová V.
Studia Psychologica
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2012
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vol. 54
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issue 4
251 – 259
EN
This experimental study explores temporal characteristics of hindsight bias (HB). The relation between temporal placements of outcome-supporting antecedents and outcome probability judgments were examined in 10 forensic accident animations. Sixty-two students in 2 conditions assessed outcome probability before and after driver’s error were apparent from an animation. Hindsight bias only occurred in judgments after driver’s error was apparent, however reversed HB resulted in prior time-points. In certain cases, both effects were present within an animation. Presence of hindsight bias and its reversal in different time-points of a single unfolding event suggests that these effects might be results of the same sense making process. Possible explanations are discussed in framework of causal model theory and counterfactual thinking.
3

The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment: Hindsight bias among historians

100%
Dymkowski M., Domin M., Marszalek S., Palasinski M.
Polish Psychological Bulletin
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2007
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vol. 38
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issue 1
24-31
EN
Assuming the specificity of cognitive activity of historians facing a typical historical narration, a salient manifestation of the hindsight bias was expected. The results obtained indicate that advanced students of history were susceptible to this cognitive bias, crippling the historical thinking, when they were participating in a replication of Baruch Fischhoff's research (1975, first experiment) that was about the estimations of probability of alternative endings occurrence to the British-Gurkha war. But among the student non-historians, however, who were engaged in the same task and facing the same stimulus material, the hindsight effect was present as well. When in the second experiment the history students were estimating the probability of the occurrence of alternative endings of a presented clinical case study story, thus dealing with material that they have little to do with on a daily basis, this bias was present to a smaller extent. Therefore the historical materials seem to facilitate hindsight effect regardless of who estimates the probability of events. The interpretation of these results is harks back to creeping determinism and the biased reconstruction approach.
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