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The problems of the current mode of the monetary structure in Ukraine have been analysed. Optimum mode of monetary policy on the modern stage of the country economic development has been determined. The comparative analysis of macroeconomic development of Ukraine and other countries who passed to inflation targeting has been given.
EN
Analysis based on reaction functions, a popular tool in monetary policy, can be used for two purposes: on the one hand, they can provide a reference value for the actual interest-rate level, and on the other, they allow characterization of the relationship between interest rates and other macro variables. This study discusses both issues for Hungary in the recent period of inflation targeting. Overall it can be concluded that the Taylor rule fits the Hungarian interest rate series well, although taking into account the openness of the economy, this fit can be improved further by using other reaction functions. Significant deviations of the actual interest rate from the levels implied by reaction functions can be explained by the presence of the exchange-rate band or by swings of the risk premium. With the relationship between interest rates and other macro variables, the role of the output gap in determining interest rates seems insignificant. The effect of inflationary expectations and the exchange rate turns out to be significant, and their relationship with interest rates is similar to those found in other countries. When inflation expectations are higher, interest rates increase more. The role of the exchange rate depends on the time horizon: at monthly frequency, interest rates are sensitive to exchange-rate changes. But at quarterly frequency, which is closer to the central bank's policy horizon, the exchange rate only has an indirect effect on interest rates through its effect on inflationary expectations.
EN
During the past five years - in line with the logic of inflation targeting and following international best practice - the National Bank of Hungary has been moving towards a greater degree of transparency. The evolution of the international best practice can be explained by the fact that in the past decade, views on the desirability of central-bank transparency have changed to a great extent. In the past, several central banks explicitly aimed to operate discreetly, but a general tendency towards increased transparency can be seen since the beginning of the 1990s. Calls for increased transparency may come from two directions. On the one hand, a democratic political setup requires public accountability of decision-makers at independent central banks, while on the other, economic thinking in the last decade has robustly inferred that central-bank transparency can preclude the emergence of inflation bias, increase the effectiveness of monetary policy, and under some conditions, have a welfare-enhancing effect. The study examines the validity of the latter assertions with two simple models often applied in transparency literature. It illustrates that the right degree of transparency can be subject to debate in theoretical and in practical terms. Finally it shows how transparency practice has evolved at the National Bank of Hungary since inflation targeting was introduced.
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