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Syntentyczne wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych GUS

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Matkowski Z.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1998
|
vol. 61
75-103
EN
Seven altemative formulas of a generał indicator of economic activity for Poland, based on UE harmonized standards, have beea developed and tested in this study. All of them were filled with the CSO survey data for manufacturing industry, construction and retail trade, supplemented by consumer sentiment indicator provided by DEMOSCOP and by the Warsaw exchange share - price - index. The resulting time series of general indicator, covering the period from Nov. 1993 till Jan. 1998, have been analyzed in order to find the most adequate formula. As the result, three variants of the general indicator have been selected for further testing. The final, operational version of the indicator, designed for monitoring purposes, will be chosen on the basis of forthcoming analysis using XI1 - ARIMA procedurę. The latter can be applied at the end of 1998 when the available time series reach the minimum length required (5 years). Cyclical components of the generał indicator ZGG now developed will be confronted with the reference indicator GCI developed by the author to make the ultimate choice.
2
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Syntentyczne wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych SGH

100%
Matkowski Z.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1998
|
vol. 61
105-157
EN
Ten alternative formulas of a generał indicator of economic activity for Poland, based on UE harmonized standards, have been developed and tested in this study, filled with the RIED survey data for industry, construction and trade, supplemented by consumer sentiment indicator provided by RIED or DEMOSKOP and by the Warsaw exchange share - price - index. The resulting time series of generał indicator, covering the period from Nov. 1993 till Jan. 1998, have been analyzed in order to find the most adequate formula. As the result, three variants of the general indicator have been selected for further testing. The final, operational version of the indicator, designed for monitoring purposes, will be chosen on the basis of forthcoming analysis using XII - ARIMA procedure. The latter can be applied at the end of 1998 when the available time series reach the minimum length required (5 years). Cyclical components of the generał indicator ZHG now developed will be confronted with the reference indicator GCI developed by the author to make the ultimate choice.
3
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Wstępne wyniki analizy syntetycznych wskaźników koniunktury opartych na wynikach badań ankietowych GUS

100%
Barczyk R., Łuczyński W.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1998
|
vol. 61
181-190
EN
This paper brings some preliminary results of a parallel, independent analysis made on the synthetic indicators of economic activity for Poland compiled according to five altemative formulas developed by Z. Matkowski and filled with the CSO survey data. Apparent seasonality seen on charts has been additionally evidenced by autocorrelation functions. Correlation results show which variants of the indicator have similar empirical distribution and which are quite different. The final choice of the formula will be made after the completion of the analysis.
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