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EN
Research background: Since the turn of the 21st century financial statement manipulations became the center of attention for accountants, auditors and financial analysts. Since being classified by the regulators as fraudulent, earnings management has required a separate detection methodology. The majority of detection research is performed through the comparison of a large number of statements for the same company in order to find irregularities in earnings behavior. Shortening of the detection time and the amount of data becomes important. Purpose of the article: The goal was to compare the characteristics of M-Score and ∆P-∆R and to find their advantages and limitations. Applying both indicators to the different samples, the research attempted to determine the statistical connection between them and to set up the limits of their applicability. Since M-Score indicator is liquidity-based, this research attempted to determine to which extent M-Score and Z-Score are statistically related. Methods: The research paper compares the behavior of both indicators using various samples of financial data: the sample of companies, charged with fraud, the sample with exceptional liquidity, the large random sample and the sample from the emerging market economy. Based on the original observations, two other subsamples (one based on poor Z-Score and one based on exceptional Z-Score) were extracted from the main sample. For all samples ∆P-∆R, M-Score and Z-Score were statistically compared among and between themselves. Findings/value added: The research found the limitations of ∆P-∆R and M-Score in the stable markets and was able to connect them in the emerging market by using linear regression model (also including Z-Score). The research confirmed that M-Score can mistake exceptional performance for manipulations, resulted in Type I errors. ∆P-∆R appeared somewhat coarse and prone to Type II errors. The combined use of both in the emerging markets will provide the best approach.
EN
The aim of this study is to verify whether Beneish M‑Score model can be useful in detecting Polish companies involved in earning management practices that lead to adverse or disclaimer of auditors’ opinion. The sample covers 24 pairs of firms listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange or New Connect (alternative market). The findings generally indicate that with –2.22 point cut‑off the model was able to identify 67% of manipulators and 75% non‑manipulators correctly. The accuracy of the model improved from 71% to 75% after shifting the cut‑off point to –1.98. Another observation was that high changes in M‑Score values turned out to be better indicator of manipulation and the classification based on 35% change in year‑to‑year values reached 85% accuracy.
PL
Celem artykułu jest ocena, czy model Beneisha może stanowić użyteczne narzędzie do wykrywania manipulacji wynikami finansowymi, które prowadziły do wydania negatywnej opinii biegłego rewidenta lub odmowy jej wydania w polskich spółkach kapitałowych. Badaniem objęto 24 pary przedsiębiorstw z głównego rynku Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie oraz z rynku alternatywnego New Connect. Z przeprowadzonych analiz wynika, że przy punkcie granicznym –2,22 model poprawnie identyfikował 67% manipulatorów i 75% niemanipulatorów. Dokładność modelu wzrastała z 71% do 75% wraz z przesuwaniem punktu odcięcia do –1,98. Kolejną obserwacją był fakt, że duże zmiany w wartościach M‑Score okazały się lepszym kryterium oceny. Klasyfikacja podmiotów na podstawie 35% zmiany wskaźnika rok do roku pozwoliła zwiększyć dokładność grupowania do 85%.
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