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FUTURE PENSIONS AND CHANGES IN EARNING HISTORIES-A MICROSIMULATION ANALYSIS FOR GERMANY; (Przyszle emerytury a zmiany w historiach zarobkowych (analiza mikrosymulacyjna dla Niemiec)

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Geyer J., Steiner V.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
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2011
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issue 27
39-55
EN
Basing on a microsimulation model, the integrated data-base from the German pension insurance and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study we analyze future pensions across cohorts born between 1937-71. The microsimulation model accounts for changes in the individuals' earnings activities in the times of demographic changes in the context of the long-run pension reforms. We consider also the effects of increasing the statutory retirement age and decreasing the level of benefits resulting from the implementation of the sustainability factor (Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor). The outcomes of the simulations show that both the labor market developments since the unification and the recent pensions reform will have a significant impact on the level of retirement benefits, in particular those of younger cohorts. There are also clear differences between East and West Germany, between sexes and education levels. If the unfavorable tendencies present on the labor market since the unification are sustained, the level of future pensions among younger birth cohorts in East Germany will fall dramatically. However, even in the case of the more optimistic labor market scenario the overall negative trend in the evolution of pension benefits of the younger birth cohorts in Germany will be significantly weaker but not reversed.
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THE ANALYSIS OF POLISH BENEFITS SYSTEM WITH THE APPLICATION OF MICROSIMULATION MODEL SIMPL (Analizy polskiego systemu podatkowo-zasilkowego z wykorzystaniem modelu mikrosymulacyjnego SIMPL)

100%
Myck M.
Problemy Polityki Społecznej. Studia i Dyskusje
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2008
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vol. 11
87-107
EN
The author provides two examples of applications of SIMPL - the recently developed Polish microsimulation model. The model is first used to highlight very specific features of the Polish benefit system using stylised examples of households types and comparing their financial situation in Poland, Germany, and the UK. He then uses the model to analyse recent reforms of social security contributions and income taxes in Poland. Both the reduction in the SSC rates and an introduction of a child tax credit seem to benefit primarily households from the top of the income distribution. Households from the bottom income deciles seem to have benefited little from the recent reform package. The analysis shows that it will be difficult to address the problem of child poverty in Poland without reforming the system of benefits. Given the analysis in the first part of the paper, the author stresses that such reforms require a complex approach and must be conducted extremely carefully to account for their consequences on labour market incentives.
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