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EN
The process of economic integration, multi-faceted as it is, requires a theoretical analysis. The areas which ought to be analyzed comprise, among other things, the economic and socio-political goals of the in- tegration, as well as its models and institutional forms. At the same time, the issue of the functioning of the monetary union seems particularly important due to the fact that the union forms a complex integrative structure, and the process of monetary integration is not restricted in practice solely to the European continent. Thus, a theoretical analysis of the monetary union may become a facilitating factor in solving at least some problems concerning the functioning of the discussed form of integration.
EN
In this paper, we employ the Bayesian method together with the calibration approach to parameterise a medium-scale two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Slovakia and the Eurozone. Parameters controlling the steady state of the model are calibrated to match the ratios of a few selected variables to their empirical counterparts. The remaining parameters are estimated via the Bayesian method. Since Slovakia has been a Euro area member for only two years, we need the model to operate under the two different monetary regimes – autonomous monetary policy regime and monetary union regime. This feature enables us to estimate the model parameters in the case of independent monetary policy and subsequently simulate impacts of various structural shocks on the Slovak economy as a part of the monetary union. At the end of the paper, we present the impulse-response functions of the model to selected structural shocks.
EN
We analyze the efficacy of fiscal policy of a small economy being a member of economic and monetary union. Basing our research on simple static and dynamic macroeconomic models we demonstrate that fiscal policies might display positive effects in the short run, but with time, positive effects of fiscal expansion tend to vanish or even might produce undesired results. That conclusion is arrived thanks to the application of a dynamic numerical simulation of the fiscal impulse. Spectacular results of fiscal policies pursued by a given country in the short run, resulting in economic upturn, are achieved in part, at the expense of other members of the monetary union. Policy makers, being guided by short-term benefits, might engineer a situation in which to the reduction in budgetary revenues does not correspond an adequate reduction in expenditures. We argue that it is indispensable to safeguard the adherence to the constraints agreed to in the Pact of Stability and Growth irrespective of political difficulties that might ensue.
EN
The monetary union is the final stage of the process of European integration. It is also important for the achievement of economic goals of the European Union. The provisions governing the conditions and principles of membership in the monetary union are included in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. The so-called convergence criteria and the ERM2 system are the most important of them. As results from the provision of the Treaty, the legal situation of non-euro area EU member states is temporary, and they are legally obliged to introduce the euro. A different situation is in the United Kingdom and Denmark which have secured themselves discretion to decide in this respect. The adoption of the euro is binding. From the legal provisions it may be interpreted that, the access to the monetary union of a member state meeting the convergence requirements (and remaining outside the euro zone) would take place, theoretically, against the will of that state. The majority vote procedure is applied in this respect, and the Council deciding the issue is bound only by the convergence criteria and - as the practice shows - not entirely. Moreover, membership in the euro zone of the EU member state meeting appropriate treaty criteria cannot be blocked. Even in the event that the treaty requires unanimity, none of the members of the euro zone may vote against admission of the state which satisfies formal requirements. This would be in contradiction to the objective of the integration and, therefore, would infringe the obligations of the state resulting from the EU treaties. There are only two ways in which the EU member state possessing its own currency may delay its access to the euro zone The first relates to the decision about joining the exchange rate mechanism (ERM2), as it only a treaty requirement for the monetary union membership, and not an obligation. This question is decided on the state level and is of a strictly political nature. It may also depend on the results of public consultations (referendum). The second way is the determination of the exchange rate of the national currency.
EN
In this paper, we study the dramatic changes in the structure and behaviour of the Slovak economy in a period of the accession to the Euro area and the Great Recession and subsequent return to the long-run growth equilibrium. This small and very open economy is represented by nonlinear dynamic stochastic model of a general equilibrium with financial accelerator. The development of time-varying structural parameters is identified using the second order approximation of a nonlinear DSGE model. The model is estimated with the use of nonlinear particle filter. Analogous model was estimated for the economy of the Euro area. It is our goal to identify the most important changes in behaviour and underlying structure of the Slovak economy. In order to distinguish the country specific changes from broader Europe-wide trends we also compare the time-varying estimates of the Slovak economy and the Euro area.
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