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Microsimulation as an instrument for tax policy analyses

100%
Leszczyłowska A.
Business and Economic Horizons
|
2015
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vol. 11
|
issue 1
14-27
EN
The paper deals with microsimulation – an increasingly popular instrument used for policy analysis, especially in the field of individual and corporate income taxation. The aim of the paper is twofold. First, it discusses some key aspects of microsimulation with a particular focus on its types and implementations in tax policy research. Secondly, it presents a microsimulation analysis of the effects of unlimited inter-period loss offset in corporate income tax. The investigation is based on a panel of 222 corporations active in Poland, which was derived from the InfoCredit database. The microsimulation is carried out in a multi-period setting (2007-2012). It considers a perspective of taxpayers with a particular focus on individual tax burden and distributional effects of taxation. The analysis shows that the expected overall consequences of the tax reform in question would be rather moderate, however the size of the effects would vary strongly across firms.
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UBÓSTWO I POGŁĘBIONA DEPRYWACJA MATERIALNA RODZIN W KONTEKŚCIE WDROŻENIA „PROGRAMU 500 PLUS

72%
Szarfenberg R.
Polityka Społeczna
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2018
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vol. 45
|
issue 1(526)
11–17
EN
The main aim of the article is to compare simulation results for 2015 to change of poverty between 2015 and 2016 in Poland. It is interesting for the assessment of the impact of a new generous child allowance introduced by new government from April-May 2016 (Program 500 Plus). Data for the simulation and year to year comparison were from 2015 and 2016 households budget surveys car­ried on by Government Statistical Office (GUS). To check some results the research was supplemented by severe material deprivation indicator from the EU-SILC. Poverty change year to year was much less impressive than results from simulation. It could be explained by not full year implementation of the new allowance, methodological assumptions of the simulations (full coverage, other conditions unchanged) and household budget surveys (one month survey, expenditures poverty).
PL
Celem artykułu jest porównanie wyników symulacji wpływu programu „Rodzina 500 Plus” (500+) na ubóstwo w 2015 r. ze zmianą jego wskaźników między rokiem 2015 i 2016. W obu przypadkach podstawą były badania budżetów gospodarstw domowych GUS. Pomocniczo wykorzystano dane z badań EU-SILC w zakresie pogłębionej deprywacji materialnej. Zmiany ubóstwa rok do roku były dużo mniejsze niż te stwierdzone w symulacji. Stwierdzone rozbieżności można wyjaśniać, odwołując się do cech wdrożenia 500+ (pełne wypłaty dopiero od połowy roku), metodologii symulacji (założenia dotyczące dochodów i wydatków, inne czynniki stałe) oraz badań budżetów gospodarstw domowych GUS (badanie w ciągu miesiąca, ubóstwo wydatkowe).
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