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EN
The author presents a comparative analysis of old-age pension systems in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania using a method of retrospective simulation run on a self-developed model. The model baseline case is a person retiring in December 2014 after 40 years of service with nationwide average salary. Other cases include low and high-earners, funded schemes participants and simulations for modified notional capital valorisation formulae. Three study countries return very dissimilar results, which is caused by differences in their pension systems’ designs. Lack of non-contributory element (basic pension) in Latvia leads to a low degree of progressivity, with inexcusably low pensions to low-earners and excessively generous pensions to high-earners. Participation in funded pillar II schemes has not brought any significant gains to pension plan sharers. Notional capital valorisation rules adopted in different countries that use the NDC-system significantly influence pension amount.
EN
The main purpose of this paper is to identify and characterise the factors of uncertainty in forecasting the (in)solvency of a pension system based on the non-financial defined contribution model (NDC) and to evaluate the forecasting function of automatic balance mechanisms (ABM). The study is theoretical and empirical. It dismisses the hypothesis of automatic balancing of the NDC model, which justifies the forecasting of its (in)solvency. The paper discusses the problem of uncertainty in the long-term forecasting of the (in)solvency of a pension system and shows the rationale of applying ABM. It has an important forecasting function and support a long-term financial balance in the NDC model. The empirical part of the paper discusses, using a case study, the ABM-based principles of indexation in Sweden, considered to be exemplary in literature. They are juxtaposed to the principles of indexation under the Polish 1st pillar functioning without ABM and are detached from the changes in the economic and demographic conditions of the pension system.
EN
The Polish universal public pension scheme (UPPS) based on individual NDC-type accounts functions similarly to FDC accounts. Even though both types of account are similar in the sense of the mechanisms applied within additional voluntary pension schemes, they are nevertheless fundamentally different. Above all NDC and FDC have a social focus, which is providing all participants with a method of partial income transfer from their period of professional activity to that of retirement and here on exactly the self same principles. This text focuses on the methods employed in the calculation of payouts from UPPS individual accounts. Various methods are discussed with special focus on the technical interest rate applied. Actuarial analysis alone seems insufficient here for it should be supplemented by analysis of pension economics. In particular the thesis suggesting legitimacy in the application within the Polish retirement system of an ex-ante determined technical interest rate larger than zero loses its validity in the light of the social goal of the universal system itself.
PL
Powszechny system emerytalny oparty na indywidualnych kontach typu NDC (non-financial defined contribution) funkcjonuje w sposób analogiczny do kont FDC (financial defined contribution). Choć oba typy kont są podobne do rozwiązań stosowanych w dodatkowych programach emerytalnych, to jednak różnią się od nich fundamentalnie. Przede wszystkim tak NDC, jak i FDC podporządkowane są celowi społecznemu, jakim jest umożliwienie wszystkim uczestnikom systemu przeniesienia na jednakowych zasadach części ich dochodu z okresu aktywności na okres starości. Niniejszy tekst dotyczy sposobu wyliczania wysokości wypłat z powszechnego systemu emerytalnego opartego na indywidualnych kontach. Dyskutowane są możliwe sposoby określenia w nim technicznej stopy procentowej. W takim przypadku niewystarczająca jest wyłącznie aktuarialna analiza i musi być uzupełniona o analizę z zakresu ekonomii emerytalnej. W szczególności teza o zasadności wykorzystania w polskim systemie emerytalnym ex-ante określonej wartości stopy procentowej większej od zera okazuje się nieprzekonująca w kontekście celu społecznego powszechnego systemu.
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