Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

Results found: 2

first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last

Search results

Search:
in the keywords:  Okun’s Law
help Sort By:

help Limit search:
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
1
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Application of the vector-autoregression VAR model in the analysis of unemployment hysteresis in the context of Okun’s Law

100%
Kołbyko P.
Research Papers in Economics and Finance
|
2022
|
vol. 6
|
issue 2
68-85
EN
Unemployment is an important macroeconomic issue both in theoretical terms and for economic reality. On the theoretical ground, the unemployment rate, which is a measure of the share of unemployed units of the labour supply in the economy, determines the output gap at a certain adjustment parameter determined by the marginal productivity of labour. One of the causes of rising or persistent unemployment in the economy is the phenomenon of unemployment hysteresis, which occurs as a result of changes in the marginal disutility of labour, the strength of the wage bargain and other exogenous conditions arising in previous periods. The purpose of the study conducted in the following paper is to investigate the phenomenon of hysteresis in the labour market by analysing the significance of the impact of the unemployment rate in previous periods. In addition, the work aims to study Okun’s Law as an effect of production dynamics on the unemployment rate. The study of the dependence was carried out through the estimation of a macroeconometric time series model-vector-autoregression (VAR) on the example of statistical data for Poland obtained from Statistics Poland (Stat.gov.pl) and complied raports about national accounts in the quarterly sequence for the years 2015–2021. The period of the study was arbitrarily selected with the observation of business cycle fluctuations in the above time frame. Empirical analysis of selected structural parameters through estimation of the vector-autore- gression model showed a significant influence of the time series in the formation of the unemployment rate, which confirms the influence of the analysed phenomenon of hysteresis in the labour market. In addition, the vector-autoregression model for inter- val forecasting through the use of dynamic prediction proved to be a posteriori accurate forecasting model of the unemployment rate in the Polish economy.
2

Empirical Analysis of the Phillips Curve and Okun's Law Through Simultaneous Equation Modeling: a Case Study of Pakistan

72%
Umer M., Galadima M. D., Abbasi B. N.
Ekonomista
|
2021
|
issue 3
418-439
PL
Zgodnie z krzywą Phillipsa istnieje odwrotna zależność między inflacją i bezrobociem. Zgodnie z prawem Okuna istnieje odwrotna zależność między wzrostem potencjalnej produkcji a bezrobociem. Autorzy próbują sprawdzić, czy zależności te występują w gospodarce Pakistanu, sprawdzając tym samym adekwatność tych zależności dla tej gospodarki. W tym celu analizują zależności między kilkoma zmiennymi makroekonomicznymi, takimi jak stopa inflacji, stopa bezrobocia, stopa wzrostu PKB per capita i stopa wzrostu ludności, na danych rocznych z okresu 1985-2017. Szacując odpowiednie modele równań jednoczesnych za pomocą pośredniej techniki najmniejszych kwadratów, z wykorzystaniem różnych testów statystycznych, autorzy dochodzą do wniosku, że zależność postulowana przez krzywą Phillipsa da się zaobserwować w gospodarce Pakistanu, ale wyniki analizy nie potwierdzają występowania zależności postulowanej przez prawo Okuna.
EN
According to the Phillips curve, there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. According to the Okun's law, there is an inverse relationship between potential output growth and unemployment. The paper tries to check whether these interdependencies are seen in the Pakistan's economy, thus testing the relevance of both dependencies for that economy. With this aim, the authors analyse the relationships between several macroeconomic variables, such as inflation rate, unemployment rate, GDP per capita growth rate, and population growth rate, using annual data of the period 1985-2017. By employing the respective simultaneous equation models (SEM) estimated with the indirect least square technique (ILS) and using various statistical tests, the authors conclude that the relationship postulated by the Phillips curve can be observed in the Pakistan's economy, but the results of the examination do not confirm the occurrence of the relationship postulated by the Okun's law.
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.