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EN
The idea of  the “One Belt, One Road” will promote the China as a soft power and attractive player in the global market. It is related to China’s perception of global changes brought about by financial crisis, and growing world-wide interdependence. Beijing’s initiative aims on the potential for increased economic exchanges between China and Europe. In fact, the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) can be called a comprehensive domestic and foreign policy concept. Historically, the concept of the “Silk Road” was not only about trade, but also had significant cultural meaning. The OBOR initiative could serve as a cultural bridge between Europe and China, which should not only be understood as “two markets” and “two forces,” but also as “two civilizations”. This concept might be especially profitable for Central and Eastern European countries which focus on strengthening relations with the PRC after years of mutual insignificance and strive for balancing huge trade deficit and attracting Chinese investments.
EN
What has now been coined the term XXI Century Silk Road had evolved from a speech given by Chinese premier Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan in 2013. It was initially a plan aimed at promoting the bilateral relations of China and its neighbors; however, the initiative had since then traversed the region’s borders and become a global project. This paper examines the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative in light of Chinese-EU relations. It reviews the initiation of the Silk Road Project and focuses on its political economic analysis through investigating the potential routes the Belt can take, the EU-Chinese trade and investment standings as well as the global political context that the increased cooperation and connection is likely to influence. The paper uses the Modern Silk Road concept as an example of China’s foreign policy in the wake of globalization and the emergence of a new multipolar world order. To set the stage we will begin with a political-economic approach of the New Silk Road. Highlighting the possibilities of Chinese high culture, which accommodate global governance, we state that the Modern Silk Road project is one of its materialized forms. The concept of the New Silk Road (together with the Eurasian Union) denies the previous era of corruption and personality cult and indicates a milestone in the development of China, proving that it is already a globally responsible power (Värk, 2015). Even if transport by land is significantly more expensive than transportation by sea, the New Silk Road may have significant advantages: It may take only two weeks, saving potentially a week in shipping time, and diversify China’s dependence on sea transport that could reduce the importance of its regional diplomatic conflicts. Already these aspects show that the purpose of the Modern Silk Road is basically not to explore cost-efficiency but to contribute to the establishment of a new, multipolar world order. The fact that the Modern Silk Road is a supply-driven concept in spite of the historical one underlines this argument. Even if politics dominate, henceforward directing the economic activities, we will nonetheless examine the China-Eastern European relations through the lenses of trade and investment as well. After the initial analysis and description of the Silk Road Economic Belt as a tool of Chinese foreign policy, the paper goes on to examine the potential routes the railway takes from China to Europe. It reviews the trade and investment ties that the two entities share and assesses how this initiative contributes to the rise of Europe and China beside the USA. Lastly, it outlines how various regional and global powers are affected by the renewal of the Silk Road.
PL
Dwadzieścia pięć lat po rozwiązaniu byłego Związku Radzieckiego i ponownym zaistnieniu republik Azji Środkowej jako niezależnych państw region ten nadal jest sceną rywalizacji wielkich mocarstw (Rosji, Chin, Unii Europejskiej, USA, Indii, Japonii, Turcji i Iranu) konkurujących w swego rodzaju „nowej wielkiej grze”, mającej na celu zwiększenie wpływów geopolitycznych i gospodarczych w regionie. Trwające ukryte współzawodnictwo wyjaśniają jego geografia, zróżnicowane i bogate zasoby naturalne, takie jak ropa naftowa i gaz. Pomimo wspólnej przeszłości historycznej i kulturowej Azja Środkowa stanowi zrónicowany region o wieloetnicznej i wielojęzycznej strukturze oraz niskim stopniu integracji fizycznej, gospodarczej i handlowej. Brak wzajemnego zaufania, utrzymujące się napięcia dotyczące granic oraz wykorzystania i współużytkowania zasobów naturalnych, a także różne poziomy wyników gospodarczych stanowiły jak dotąd zagrożenie dla rozwoju prawdziwej współpracy regionalnej. W tym kontekście chińska inicjatywa OBOR (One Belt One Road – jeden pas, jedna droga), mająca na celu rozwój szybkiego transportu, teoretycznie mogłaby – w przypadku właściwej realizacji – poprawić połączenia międzyregionalne, rozwijając w ten sposób rynek Azji Centralnej oraz wspierając współpracę międzyrządową i kontakty międzyludzkie w regionie. Czy możemy w takim razie spodziewać się, że ambitna chińska inicjatywa OBOR zwiększy stabilność geopolityczną i pomoże uzyskać wspólne korzyści gospodarcze i handlowe w Azji Środkowej? Jakie są przesłanki, które należałoby spełnić? Autor szczegółowo analizuje pewne kluczowe wymagania polityczne, gospodarcze i instytucjonalne niezbędne w celu skutecznego wdrożenia strategii OBOR stwierdzając jednak, że trzy lata po uruchomieniu tego kluczowego instrumentu chińskiego modelu „globalizacji bez demokracji” jego wdrożenie stoi w obliczu poważnych problemów, budząc tym samym większe wątpliwości niż pewność.
EN
Twenty five years after the dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the reemergence of the Central Asian Republics as independent States, this region continues to be the scene of rivalries amongst the big powers (Russia, China, the European Union, USA, India, Japan, Turkey and Iran) competing in a sort of a “new Grand Game” to increase their geopolitical and economic influence in the region. Its geography, diverse and rich natural resources, like oil and gas, explain the ongoing hidden rivalries. Despite its common historical and cultural past, Central Asia constitutes a heterogeneous region with a multiethnic and multi-linguistic composition and a low degree of physical, economic and trade integration. The lack of mutual trust, the persisting tension over borders and the use and sharing of natural resources, as well as different levels of economic performance have so far jeopardized the development of genuine regional cooperation. Against this background, the idea behind the Chinese OBOR Initiative to develop rapid transportation, if well implemented, could theoretically, by improving interregional connectivity, develop the Central Asia regional market and foster intergovernmental cooperation and people-to-people contacts within the region. In this context, could we expect that the ambitious Chinese OBOR Initiative will boost geopolitical stability and promote shared economic and trade benefits in Central Asia? What are the conditions for that need to be fulfilled?The author analyzes in depth certain crucial political, economic and institutional requirements for the successful implementation of the OBOR Strategy and concludes, however, that three years after the launching of this crucial instrument of the Chinese “globalization without democracy” model, its implementation faces major problems and thus raises more doubts than certainties.
EN
The South Caucasus consists of three states – Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The region is a natural corridor from the East to the West, from Asia to Europe, and from the North to the South, from Russia to the Middle East. This location is the main potential of the region, which lies in the possibility to create routes for the transmission of products, and the most important – energy resources. The aim of the article is to analyze China’s strategy towards the South Caucasus, including the New Silk Road project. Because of the location of the region, the South Caucasus has been the subject of competition, but also of cooperation of many geopolitical ‘players’ – such as the United States, Russia, the European Union, and also China. The main tool of Chinese foreign policy towards not only the South Caucasus, but also in global dimension, has become the New Silk Road. This concept established towards the South Caucasus states, uses the ‘cluster approach’, which means that China seeks to develop relations with all the countries in the region in a parallel way, not to establish any different ways of cooperation with each of the South Caucasus state, like other global powers do.
PL
Inicjatywa „Jeden pas i jedna droga” (One Belt One Road – OBOR) Prezydenta Xi Jinpin jest istotnym instrumentem strategii mającej na celu utrzymanie kontroli wewnętrznej i stabilności politycznej oraz zdynamizować schorzałą chińską gospodarkę. Koncepcja OBOR jest ambitna, ale niejednoznaczna, zgodna z tradycyjną chińską zasadą “Ukryj nasze możliwości i daj nam czas”. W tym kontekście pojawia się pytanie czy ChRL jest gotowa na przestrzeganie prawa międzynarodowego i na bycie przewidywalnym i odpowiedzialnym partnerem politycznym i handlowym? Autor analizuje perspektywy i wyzwania chińskiej strategii i stara się dociec jakie są rzeczywiste cele tego projektu, który może przynieść potencjalne korzyści, ale także stanowić poważne zagrożenie dla jej azjatyckich sąsiadów i całej społeczności międzynarodowej.
EN
The launching of “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) Initiative by president Xi Jinpin is an essential instrument of the Strategy aiming to maintain the internal control and political stability and dynamises an ailing Chinese economy. The concept of OBOR is ambitious but ambiguous, perfectly in line with traditional Chinese pattern: “Hide our capabilities and bide our time.” In this context, a question is posed: Is China ready to abide by international law and be a reliable political and trade partner? The author analyzes the prospects and challenges of the Chinese Strategy and try to identify what are the real objectives of this project which may bring potential benefits but also important risks for its Asian neighbors and the international community at large.
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