he perspective of changes in law regarding supervision of adults in Poland will change the methodology of supervision. First of all, there would be implementation of some elements of risk assessment concerning condemned who commit a crime again and three groups of risk management techniques will be assign. Each group will require a different intensity of contact and a different form of it. Changes in the methodology of work will determine a new formula of case assignments among every member of the probation team that will enable the use of individual skills, predispositions, knowledge of probation officer of how to work with every individual. Today, without enough time distance and empirical analysis it is extremely difficult to assess. However, we are facing a new opening, again in the history of local probation with a clear, local character. That is why even today it is important to think about it and it is a serious challenge not only for pedagogues of how to access effectiveness of probation officers’ activities in terms of supervisions being put into practice in new reality.
The practical application of quantitative methods in risk management in investment projects carried out in the construction industry requires specialised knowledge in this field. In particular, it’s necessary to know the advantages and disadvantages of the methods. As different investment projects are carried out in the economy, including the construction industry, every time different methods, techniques and tools need to be used to estimate risks. These issues are addressed in the paper, the aim of which is to discuss the selected methods used to estimate risk in investment projects in the construction industry, focusing on their advantages and disadvantages. The problems are discussed theoretically and presented in a synthetic way.
In the paper, an attempt to application, known from finance literature The Portfolio Theory and based on it mathematical models has been undertaken. Using Sharp’s single-factor model the beta coefficients for specified crops were calculated. The beta coefficients describe the volatility of a crop in relation to the volatility of the other crops and indicate the possibilities of using production diversification as a strategy of risk management in farms. In the second part of the paper, the Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) was used to estimate the value of expected gross margins, which can to guarantee a positive return from risk cost. The results of CAPM indicates, that in Poland the most popular cereals are underestimated in the terms of risk cost. The diversification of plant production can reduce the total production risk only in a limited range.
The article represents the investigation of the economic nature of the innovation risk, risk areas of the innovation project. The existing risk assessment methods have been critically analyzed in the article, and their advantages and disadvantages in the assessment of the risk of the innovation project have been given due consideration. The essence of simulation modeling has also been revealed.
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