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The use of data mining models in solving the problem of imbalanced classes based on the example of an online marketing campaign

100%

Łapczyński M., Surma J.

Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

2015

issue 3 (49)

9-19

While building predictive models in analytical CRM, researchers often encounter the problem of imbalanced classes (skewed distributions of dependent variables), which consists in the fact that the number of observations belonging to one category of the dependent variable is much lower than the number of observations belonging to the second category of that variable. This is related to such areas as churn analysis, customer acquisition models and cross and up-selling models. The purpose of the paper is to present a predictive model that was built to predict the response of Internet users to banner advertising. The dataset used in the study came from an online social network which offers advertisers banner campaigns targeting its users. The advertising campaign of a cosmetics company was carried out in the autumn of 2010 and was mainly targeted at young women. A user of this service was described by 115 independent variables – 3 out of which were demographic variables (sex, age, education), and the remaining 112 referred to the user’s online activity. While building the model there appeared the problem of imbalanced classes due to the low number of users who clicked on the banner ad. The number of cases amounted to 81,000, while the number of positive reactions to the banner was 207, which constitutes approximately 0.25% of the dependent variable. During the study, two popular data mining tools were utilized – the decision trees C&RT and Random Forest. The second goal of this paper is to compare the performance of the predictive models based on both these analytical tools.

Impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the expression of emotions in social media

72%

Ghosh D.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making

2020

vol. 15

23-35

In the age of social media, every second thousands of messages are exchanged. Analyzing those unstructured data to find out specific emotions is a challenging task. Analysis of emotions involves evaluation and classification of text into emotion classes such as Happy, Sad, Anger, Disgust, Fear, Surprise, as defined by emotion dimensional models which are described in the theory of psychology (www 1; Russell, 2005). The main goal of this paper is to cover the COVID-19 pandemic situation in India and its impact on human emotions. As people very often express their state of the mind through social media, analyzing and tracking their emotions can be very effective for government and local authorities to take required measures. We have analyzed different machine learning classification models, such as Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest Classifier, Decision Tree and Logistic Regression with 10-fold cross validation to find out top ML models for emotion classification. After tuning the Hyperparameter, we got Logistic regression as the best suited model with accuracy 77% with the given datasets. We worked on algorithm based supervised ML technique to get the expected result. Although multiple studies were conducted earlier along the same lines, none of them performed comparative study among different ML techniques or hyperparameter tuning to optimize the results. Besides, this study has been done on the dataset of the most recent COVID-19 pandemic situation, which is itself unique. We captured Twitter data for a duration of 45 days with hashtag #COVID19India OR #COVID19 and analyzed the data using Logistic Regression to find out how the emotion changed over time based on certain social factors

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1 Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

1 Multiple Criteria Decision Making

1 Ghosh D.

1 Surma J.

1 Łapczyński M.

1 2020

1 2015

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The use of data mining models in solving the problem of imbalanced classes based on the example of an online marketing campaign

Impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the expression of emotions in social media