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Peculiarities of Economics Recovery After Worldwide Economic Crisis in 2008–2009

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Juozapavičienė A., Montvidaitė A.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2012
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vol. 7
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issue 2
EN
Variation analysis of several main procyclic indicators (leading and coincident) was carried out in this article. The results of the analysis showed that the economies of Lithuania and the European Union are slowly recovering. The attempts of European countries to struggle against deep recession caused by the world economic crisis have led to a new - sovereign debt crisis. It manifested in increasing differences between government bond yields and premiums of Credit Default Swap (CDS) between PIIGS countries and other EU members, notably Germany. Accordingly to this, CDS was examined as the leading indicator of the economic cycle.During the period of the economic crisis, the government of Lithuania borrowed in international markets very expensively and the accumulated debt can become a heavy burden on the country's future economy. The situation of public finance in Lithuania was analyzed by adopting the mathematical model of Zamkov. The performed simulation showed that the debt of Lithuanian public sector will press the country for a long period of time.
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Leading indicators of sovereign debt and currency crises: Comparative analysis of 2001 and 2018 shocks in Argentina

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Gruszczyński M., Majczak P.
Journal of Economics and Management
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2020
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vol. 42
20-47
EN
Aim/purpose – This paper investigates the accuracy of leading indicators in the case of the 2001 sovereign default crisis and the 2018 currency turmoil in Argentina.Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we conducted early warning signals analysis based on a-priori selected variables. For each of the macroeconomic variables, we computed yearly changes and selected the threshold to minimise the noise-to-signal ratio, i.e. the ratio of percentage of false signals in ‘normal’ times to percentage of good signals in a two-year period preceding each of the crises.Findings – The predictive power of indicators differs significantly in various crisis epi-sodes. For the 2001 crisis, the decline in value of bank deposits was the best leading indicator based on the noise-to-signal ratio. For the 2018 currency crisis, the lowest noise-to-signal ratio was observed for the lending-deposit rate ratio.Research implications/limitations – The survey is limited mostly by the data availabil-ity and their quality.Originality/value/contribution – This paper gives a complex review of the major early warning indicators in the context of the most recent history of Argentina’s economy. It applies a set of classical leading indicators to two modern cases of financial crises. The paper proposes an original ‘knocking the window’ approach to the presentation of tradi-tional warning concepts in the context of current economic events.
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