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Role of internal variability of climate system in increase of air temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the years 1951–2018

100%
Marsz A. A., Styszyńska A., Bryś K., Bryś T.
Quaestiones Geographicae
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2021
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vol. 40
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issue 3
109-124
EN
In the course of analysing the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr), a rapid change of the thermal regime was found between 1987 and 1989. TWr increased by >1°C, a strong, statistically significant positive trend emerged. The analysis of processes showed that strong warming in the cold season of the year (December–March) occurred as a result of an increase in the NAO intensity and warming in the warm season because of increased sunshine duration in Wrocław (ShWr). Multiple regression analysis has shown that the winter NAO Hurrell’s index explains 15% of TWr variance, and the ShWr of the long-day (April–August) period 49%, whereas radiative forcing 5.9%. This indicates that the factors incidental to the internal variability of the climate system explain 64% of the TWr variability and the effect of increased CO2 concentration only ~6%. The reason for this rapid change of the thermal regime was a radical change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-European circular sector, which took place between 1988 and 1989. The heat, which is the cause of warming in Wrocław, comes from an increase in solar energy inflow (April–August) and also is transported to Europe from the North Atlantic surface by atmospheric circulation (NAO). These results indicate that the role of CO2 in shaping the contemporary temperature increase is overestimated, whereas the internal variability of the climate system is underestimated.
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Wpływ zróżnicowanej dynamiki zmian urbanizacyjnych na tendencje temperatury powietrza w aglomeracji warszawskiej w latach 1961–2010

84%
Rozbicki T., Kleniewska M., Majewski G., Rozbicka K., Gołaszewski D.
Acta Geographica Lodziensia
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2016
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vol. 104
35-44
PL
Celem pracy jest przedstawienie wpływu zmian urbanizacyjnych poprzez pokazanie zróżnicowania wielolet - nich zmian temperatury powietrza na trzech stacjach meteorologicznych położonych na terenie Warszawy: Ursynów, Okęcie oraz Bielany. W odróżnieniu od stacji Ursynów, której otoczenie zmieniało się w ostatnich 50 latach w sposób istotny, wokół stacji na Okęciu i na Bielanach tak znaczących zmian nie odnotowano. Dane źródłowe wykorzystane w pracy obejmują średnie dobowe wartości temperatury powietrza, wartości temperatury minimalnej i maksymalnej. Analizowano trendy temperatury średniej rocznej, średniej miesięcznej oraz temperatury średniej maksymalnej i minimalnej rocznej i miesięcznej w całym wieloleciu 1961–2010. Stwierdzono istotny trend warunków termicznych na stacji Ursynów w przypadku temperatury średniej i minimalnej miesięcznej.
EN
The aim of this work is to present the influence of changes in urbanization by showing the variability of changes in long-term air temperature at three meteorological stations located in Warsaw: Ursynów, Okęcie and Bielany. Unlike the station Ursynów, where the surrounding area has changed significantly in the last 50 years, at the vicinity of the stations Okęcie and Bielany did not undergo such extensive transformations. Meteorological data used in the paper includes the values of average daily air temperature as well as the values of the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Trends in the annual average temperature, the average monthly temperature and the average maximum and minimum annual and monthly temperature for the period 1961–2010 were analyzed. A significant trend of thermal conditions at the Ursynów station for the average temperature and for the minimum monthly temperature has been observed.
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