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Building of F-Score-Like Models on the Example of the Polish Stock Market

100%

Pilch B.

Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia

2023

vol. 57

issue 1

155-180

Theoretical background: Value investing is one of the most popular investing approaches. In their frame, there could be a high B/M investing strategy identified. F-Score, developed by Piotroski, is a scoring model applied to the sample of high B/M entities. Its purpose is to select companies with strong financial foundations and buy their shares for the investment portfolio to generate positive market-adjusted returns in the following periods. The effectiveness of this model was mostly empirically confirmed, especially regarding developed markets. Purpose of the article: The main aim of the paper was to build F-Score-like models based on the data from the Polish stock market. The main hypothesis concerned the higher effectiveness of such models than F-Score, as the specificity of a given market should result in a better fit to the data. Research methods: Building of the models based on the discriminant analysis and formation of the investment portfolios based on the indications of these models as well as F-Score. Finally, backtesting of the portfolios built to assess their effectiveness. The sample covered most of the Polish-listed companies. The period taken into account was 2012–2022. Main findings: Models built (X-Score and Y-Score) were less efficient than F-Score. Moreover, they led to generating negative rates of return (both raw and market-adjusted). On the other hand, using of F-Score for the analyzed period seems to be purposeful due to the 1.35% mean annual market-adjusted return generated. Apart from the scoring models analyzed, the research partially confirmed the advisability of using a high B/M investing strategy. Generally, the results obtained are in line with the findings of most of other authors –regarding the F-Score effectiveness. However, an approach based on Mohanram’s idea – using the differences between absolute values of a given variable and median from the sample – proved to be inadequate in the Polish stock market.

Arch Effects in Multifactor Market-Timing Models of Polish Mutual Funds

86%

Olbryś J.

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

2012

vol. 10

issue 2

60-80

Performance measurement of investment managers is a topic of interest to practitioners and academics alike. The traditional performance evaluation literature has attempted to distinguish stock-picking ability (selectivity) from the ability to predict overall market returns (market-timing). However, the literature finds that it is not easy to separate ability into two such dichotomous categories. To overcome these problems multifactor alternative market-timing models have been proposed. The author's recent research provides evidence of strong ARCH effects in the market-timing models of Polish equity open-end mutual funds. For this reason, the main goal of this paper is to present the regression results of the new GARCH(p, q) versions of market-timing models of these funds. We estimate multifactor extensions of classical market-timing models with Fama & French's spread variables SMB and HML, and Carhart's momentum factor WML. We also include lagged values of the market factor as an additional independent variable in the regressions of the models because of the pronounced "Fisher effect" in the case of the main Warsaw Stock Exchange indexes. The market-timing and selectivity abilities of fund managers are evaluated for the period January 2003-December 2010. Our findings suggest that the GARCH(p, q) model is suitable for such applications.

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1 Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia

1 Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

1 Olbryś J.

1 Pilch B.

1 2023

1 2012

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Building of F-Score-Like Models on the Example of the Polish Stock Market

Arch Effects in Multifactor Market-Timing Models of Polish Mutual Funds