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1

Applying a New Bubble Test for a Composite Indicator

100%
Gerdesmeier D., Reimers H.-E., Roffia B.
Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia
|
2010
|
vol. 9
|
issue 1
1-23
EN
The paper applies a new bubble test checking the explosiveness of asset prices, especially real stock prices, real house prices and a combination of these prices. In this study, a sample of 17 OECD industrialised countries and the euro area over the period 1969 Q1 - 2010 Q2 is investigated. The authors carry out recursive unit root to determine the beginning and the end of a period of bubble behaviour. The new test procedure finds evidence for rejecting the non-bubble hypothesis. Particularly the composite indicator includes hints of bubble situations before the actual financial crisis.
2

Testing the Sustainability of Growth of the LJSEX in the January 2000 to May 2010 period

80%
Ahčan A.
Organizacija
|
2011
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vol. 44
|
issue 2
47-58
EN
In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the LJSEX, the main index of the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, in the period from January 2000 till May 2010. More precisely, we test for the presence of bubbles and antibubbles and try to determine whether or not a bubble could have been predicted (both the formation and the date of the bubble burst). Second, we also employ techniques used to model antibubbles to forecast the future behaviour of the LJSE index. Besides modelling index dynamics for the aforementioned period, we also seek to determine the factors that led to the bubble forming and later bursting. We find that the bubble could have been forecasted at least several months in advance. On the other hand, a very precise date of the crash seems harder to identify. By more closely analysing the interplay between interest rates, credit activity and the LJSEX, we conclude that there is a clear connection between decreasing interest rates, increased credit activity and the formation of a stock bubble. If there is a clear correlation between the early phase of a bubble and increased credit activity of the banking sector, the link between the end of the bubble and the restriction of credit activity is less pronounced. By fitting the extended antibubble model from (Johansen 1999a) we obtain the values of parameters that give us some indication of the future behaviour of the LJSEX. Based on these results we conclude that in the next few years we are likely to experience a period of increased volatility with no clear increasing or decreasing growth pattern.
3
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Innowacje i ich wpływ na rozwój nadzoru korporacyjnego

70%
Jerzemowska M.
Nauki o Finansach
|
2014
|
issue 1(18)
49-65
EN
The aim of the paper is to present the argument that there is not one way of assessing the impact of innovations on corporate governance system. The analysis reveals that the three early speculative bubbles – Tulipmania (Holland, 1637) the South Sea Bubble (England, 1720) and the Mississippi Company Bubble (France, 1720) − were caused in great part by financial innovations. The rapid development of the economies, financial institutions and instruments, accounting practices and corporations was not matched by the parallel development of appropriate laws, financial and accounting infrastructure and corporate governance. The three scandals (and the 2008 as well) also reflected the lack of effective methods of protection against corruption and financial market fraud.
4
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Kształtowanie i zobrazowanie progresywnej skali podatkowej

61%
Stiller W.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
|
2017
|
vol. 51
|
issue 4
EN
In most countries, a progressive tax is levied on the income of individuals. This article addresses the different design of a progressive tax scale taking into account the issue of the so-called tax bubbles that constitute an increased MTR. This feature of the tax function is a result of the exclusion of the high income taxpayers from the basic allowance or reduced tax rates. As shown in the article, this may lead to a higher tax burden under the joint taxation compared to the separate taxation. The analysis refers to the tax scales in Germany, Poland, the UK and the USA.
PL
Większość państw stosuje progresywną skalę do opodatkowania dochodu osób fizycznych. W niniejszym artykule został omówiony zróżnicowany kształt progresywnej taryfy podatkowej ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem podwyższonej krańcowej stopy podatku, która wynika z wykluczenia podatników o wyższym dochodzie z zastosowania preferencji podatkowych w formie kwoty wolnej czy też obniżonej stopy podatkowej. Sytuacja taka może prowadzić do wyższego obciążenia podatkowego małżonków, którzy się wspólnie rozliczają. Analizę oparto na skalach podatkowych w Niemczech, Polsce, Wielkiej Brytanii oraz USA.
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