Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

Results found: 3

first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last

Search results

Search:
in the keywords:  business cycle fluctuations
help Sort By:

help Limit search:
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
1
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Stocks, Commodities and Business Cycle Fluctuations – Seeking the Diversification Benefits

100%
Kurach R.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2012
|
vol. 7
|
issue 4
EN
In this study we empirically verify the diversification potential of different commodity sectors for equity portfolios. We also try to find the explanation of varying cross-sectoral diversification benefits by verifying the relationship between macroeconomic variables and commodity indices. We employ correlation analysis for our purposes. The obtained results indicate that Precious Metal and Livestock are valuable equity portfolio diversifiers, while Industrial Metals volatility has much in common with the fluctuations of broad stock market.
2
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS IN POLAND BEFORE AND AFTER THE CRISIS

88%
Lenart Ł., Mazur B., Pipień M.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2016
|
vol. 11
|
issue 4
769-783
EN
The main objective of the paper is to investigate properties of business cycles in the Polish economy before and after the recent crisis. The essential issue addressed here is whether there is statistical evidence that the recent crisis has affected the properties of the business cycle fluctuations. In order to improve robustness of the results, we do not confine ourselves to any single inference method, but instead use different groups of statistical tools, including non-parametric methods based on subsampling and parametric Bayesian methods. We examine monthly series of industrial production (from January 1995 till December 2014), considering the properties of cycles in growth rates and in deviations from long-run trend. Empirical analysis is based on the sequence of expanding-window samples, with the shortest sample ending in December 2006. The main finding is that the two frequencies driving business cycle fluctuations in Poland correspond to cycles with periods of 2 and 3.5 years, and (perhaps surprisingly) the result holds both before and after the crisis. We, therefore, find no support for the claim that features (in particular frequencies) that characterize Polish business cycle fluctuations have changed after the recent crisis. The conclusion is unanimously supported by various statistical methods that are used in the paper, however, it is based on relatively short series of the data currently available.
3
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Zastosowanie modelu realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego Hansena do gospodarki Polski

88%
Kuchta Z., Piłat K.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
|
2010
|
vol. 244
|
issue 11-12
19-39
EN
The paper analyzes the so-called real business cycle model developed by American economist Gary D. Hansen. The model is expanded to include an indivisible labor mechanism. The aim is to check the model in terms of its accuracy in explaining business cycle fluctuations in Poland. The first part of the article discusses the assumptions and structure of the model. The authors define a state of stationary equilibrium and the final form of the model-a system of log-linearized equations. In the second part of the paper, the authors calibrate the structural parameters and conduct an empirical analysis of the Hansen model, beginning with the characteristics of the variables used in the study and the value of the model’s parameters. The model is solved and the reactions of individual variables to a technological shock are analyzed. The coefficients of correlation and the deviations of standard simulated and real variables show that the model correctly reflects the direction and strength of the relationships between the variables, the authors say. Positive correlations were obtained between all the simulated variables, in the same way as in the case of actual data. At the same time, in the case of simulated data, much higher correlations were obtained between capital and consumption and between technological changes and labor than in the case of actual data. As part of the study, an analysis was also conducted of the reactions of variables to a technological shock introduced to the model on an impulse basis. The strongest reaction to the shock was recorded in the case of labor supply and production. Moreover, in the same way as for actual data, the authors found that the fluctuations of consumption are much weaker than the fluctuations of production. This stems from the fact that households tend to smooth out consumption over time, Kuchta and Piłat say. The obtained results confirm that the dynamism of the Hansen real business cycle model, despite its simplicity, relatively accurately reflects the changes in Poland’s key macroeconomic variables.
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.