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Reasons Why Poland Avoided the 2007-2009 Recession

100%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2011
|
vol. 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference
39-66
EN
Poland was the only economy among the European Union members, which avoided the recession of 2007-09. Nevertheless, the impact of global recession was visible in many areas of the Polish economy. The paper analyzes some of the main reasons behind this outstanding performance. The analysis is based on data from business surveys, composite coincident and leading indexes and official statistics on Poland’s economy. The reasons are divided into four groups: (1) General economic condition before the global crisis. In this part the large inflow of direct investments and fast growing productivity throughout 2004-2007 are emphasized. (2) Structural factors related to the stage of Poland’s economic development. The main factors in this group are: low dependence on business and consumer credit; absence of high risk financial instruments (securities based on US subprime mortgages) in the banking sector; relatively small external ties of the Polish economy with relatively big domestic market. (3) Benefits of the EU membership. Poland benefited from the large share of investments linked to EU transfers since May 2004. It boosted the activity in sectors such as building and construction and reduced the scale of layoffs. (4) Market forces. Despite Poland’s goal to join the euro area as soon as possible, its own currency and floating exchange rates helped to enhance Polish export during recession. Strong Polish currency during the period of high oil prices (2007-2008) prevented the economy from increasing costs of production and made imports cheaper. The later depreciation of the zloty (2008-2009) made export goods more competitive on the international markets which prevented Polish exports from declining. Another factor in this group is the absence of any special stimulus programs undertaken by the government.
2

Business Cycle Barometer as a Method of Economic Diagnosis and Forecasts in the Case of Warmia and Mazury Region

88%
Warżała R.
Barometr Regionalny. Analizy i prognozy
|
2014
|
issue 1(35)
43-52
EN
The purpose of this article is to assess the possibility of using a business cycle barometer to measure both the current economic situation and short-term forecasts for a regional economy, on the example of the Warmia and Mazury. The basis of this assessment is the construction of regional business cycle barometer based on data obtained from the Regional Statistical Office in Olsztyn. A survey was conducted which showed that a regional business cycle barometer can be created using the official statistical data. It provides a way to assess the current economic situation and short-term prospects of its fluctuations. In comparison to business surveys made by other institutions, the business cycle barometer is more objective, because it consists of so-called hard economic data.
PL
Celem artykułu jest ocena możliwości wykorzystania barometru koniunktury do pomiaru stanu aktualnego oraz krótkookresowej prognozy gospodarczej regionu, na przykładzie województwa warmińsko-mazurskiego. Podstawą tej oceny jest propozycja konstrukcji barometru, opartego na danych statystycznych pozyskanych z Wojewódzkiego Urzędu Statystycznego w Olsztynie. Otrzymane wyniki wskazują, że badanie koniunktury gospodarczej w ujęciu regionalnym z wykorzystaniem tzw. twardych danych statystycznych jest możliwe i pozwala na ocenę bieżącego stanu koniunktury oraz krótkookresowych perspektyw jej zmian.
3
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Polscy eksporterzy na rynku Unii Europejskiej w okresie poakcesyjnym

75%
Chojna J., Duchnowska E., Marczewski K.
Unia Europejska.pl
|
2014
|
issue 4
7-18
PL
W artykule przeanalizowano oceny firm eksportujących, głównie na rynek unijny, uzyskane w badaniach ankietowych IKCHZ i IBRKK z lat 2003-2013. Odnoszą się one do czynników wpływających na rozmiary eksportu tych firm, progu rentowności ich eksportu i zabezpieczania się przed ryzykiem kursowym, strategii eksportowych firm, wykorzystania wsparcia publicznego, a także wpływu akcesji na warunki działania na głównych rynkach. W ocenie ankietowanych firm akcesja do UE doprowadziła do znacznej poprawy warunków ich działania na rynku unijnym. W okresie poakcesyjnym wśród tendencji obserwowanych w strategiach eksportowych pozytywnie należy ocenić rosnącą rolę eksportu bezpośredniego i realizowanego pod własnym znakiem firmowym, natomiast niepokoi utrzymująca się dominacja konkurencji cenowej jako podstawowego sposobu konkurowania na rynkach zagranicznych, czego efektem jest uzyskiwanie na tych rynkach cen niższych od cen konkurentów zagranicznych. Niska aktywność inwestycyjna za granicą badanej grupy eksporterów nie sprzyjała zwiększeniu potencjału eksportowego. W obszarze odziaływania polityki państwa pozytywnie oceniano złagodzenie polityki pieniężnej, dzięki któremu kurs walutowy, a ostatnio także poziom stopy procentowej zaczęły korzystnie wpływać na rozmiary sprzedaży eksportowej. Istotnym czynnikiem poprawy międzynarodowej konkurencyjności przedsiębiorstw stał się dostęp do funduszy europejskich, przynoszący efekty zwłaszcza w zakresie ulepszania parku maszynowego i jakości oferty eksportowej. Wraz z rosnącym doświadczeniem polskich firm w działalności na rynku unijnym malała natomiast popularność oferowanych przez państwo instrumentów bezpośredniego wsparcia eksportu o charakterze finansowym i promocyjnym.
EN
In their article, the authors analyse, upon the surveys conducted in the years 2003-2013 by the Foreign Trade Research Institute and its successor, the Institute for Market, Consumption and Business Cycles Research, the evaluation done by companies exporting mainly in the EU market, relating to factors affecting the size of their exports, the break-even point for exports, the protection against foreign exchange risk, their export strategies, the use of state aid and the impact of EU accession on the operating conditions in the main markets. In the opinion of the companies surveyed, the accession to the EU has led to a significant improvement of their activities in the EU single market. In the post-accession period, among the tendencies observed in export strategies, positively noted can be the growing role of direct exports and the ones carried out under private brand, whereas alarming is the persisting prevalence of price competition as the basic way of competing in foreign markets whose effect is recording in those markets of prices lower than the foreign competitors' prices. The low foreign investment activity of the group of exporters in question did not facilitate the increase in the export potential. In the area of state intervention, there was positively assessed monetary policy quantitative easing, owing to which the exchange rate and recently also the interest rate level began to favourably affect the volumes of export sales. A considerable factor of improvement of the enterprises' international competitiveness there became the access to the EU funds, yielding effects particularly in the area of improvement of machinery and quality of the export offer. However, with the growing experience of Polish firms in their activities in the EU market, there was decreasing popularity of the state instruments of direct support for exports of the financial and promotional nature.
4

Intracluster Homogeneity Selection Problem in a Business Survey

63%
Žmuk B.
Business Systems Research Journal
|
2016
|
vol. 7
|
issue 2
91-103
EN
Background: In the cluster sampling approach many parameters have influence on lowering the survey costs and one of the most important is the intracluster homogeneity. Objectives: The goal of the paper is to find the most optimal value of intracluster homogeneity in case when two or more questions or variables have a key role in the research. Methods/Approach: Five key variables have been selected from a business survey conducted in Croatia and results for the two-stage cluster sampling design approach were simulated. The calculated intracluster homogeneity values were compared among all the five observed questions and survey costs and precision levels were inspected. Results: In the new cluster sampling design, for the fixed precision level, the lowest survey costs would be achieved by using the intracluster homogeneity value which is the closest to the average intracluster homogeneity value among all the key questions. Similar results were obtained when survey costs were held fixed. Conclusions: If there is more than one key question in the survey, then the best solution would be to use an average intracluster homogeneity value. However, one should notice that in that case minimum survey costs would not be reached, but the precision levels would increase at all key questions.
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