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THE ROLE OF NEED FOR STRUCTURE IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND HOW IDENTIFYING INFORMATION IN PRICE MOVEMENTS RAISES TRADERS’ CONFIDENCE

100%

Markiewicz Ł., Czupryna M., Kubińska E.

Decyzje

2020

issue 33

Technical analysis (TA) is a tool believed to support investor’s investment decisions. Even if research has demonstrated that TA cannot be used to make systematic profits over a long time period, it could potentially bring psychological payoffs to its users in the form of enhancing their confidence. In an experimental study we show that: (1) chartists demonstrate overconfidence in TA usage, believing that they are better than they actually are in TA formation recognition, and that; (2) the act of naming an observed trend as a TA formation brings extra confidence to the chartist, regardless of whether this is a real TA sequence or a random sequence. Thus, both naming an existing TA formation as a TA formation and naming a random sequence as a TA formation result in greater confidence.Also, irrespective of the high popularity of TA among investors, there are marked individual differences in TA followers. In a questionnaire study, we demonstrate that declared positive attitudes toward TA correlate positively with high need for (cognitive) closure (as measured by the Need for Cognitive Closure Scale; NFCS), specifically, desire for predictability.

Technical analysis (TA) is a tool believed to support investor’s investment decisions. Even if research has demonstrated that TA cannot be used to make systematic profits over a long time period, it could potentially bring psychological payoffs to its users in the form of enhancing their confidence. In an experimental study we show that: (1) chartists demonstrate overconfidence in TA usage, believing that they are better than they actually are in TA formation recognition, and that; (2) the act of naming an observed trend as a TA formation brings extra confidence to the chartist, regardless of whether this is a real TA sequence or a random sequence. Thus, both naming an existing TA formation as a TA formation and naming a random sequence as a TA formation result in greater confidence. Also, irrespective of the high popularity of TA among investors, there are marked individual differences in TA followers. In a questionnaire study, we demonstrate that declared positive attitudes toward TA correlate positively with high need for (cognitive) closure (as measured by the Need for Cognitive Closure Scale; NFCS), specifically, desire for predictability.

Wpływ wybranych cech osobowości na przebieg i wyniki porównywania śladów daktyloskopijnych

71%

Ignaszak M.

Problemy Kryminalistyki

2020

issue 310

5-16

Forensic experts in the field of fingerprint examination are prone to cognitive errors that can affect the opinion issuing process. A study was conducted to determine if students exhibiting certain intensities of two personality traits: the need for cognitive closure and controllability, have a predisposition to be better fingerprint examination experts compared to others. The study consisted of three stages: completion of personality questionnaires, training in fingerprint examination, and finally a fingerprint examination – related task. The task was appropriately staged to introduce cognitive illusions, led by which, the subjects were more likely to give incorrect answers. No significant correlation was found between the studied characteristics and correctness, biases, caution, and decisiveness in the task performed. The subjects were significantly more likely to give incorrect answers. There was a positive correlation of time with the number of correct answers. A significant positive correlation was also observed between the preference of order and caution in task performance. The results obtained can be used in typing individuals who will perform better at comparing fingerprints.

Eksperci kryminalistyki z zakresu daktyloskopii są podatni na błędy poznawcze, które mogą wpływać na proces wydawania opinii. Przeprowadzono badanie, aby sprawdzić, czy studenci z pewnym natężeniem dwóch cech osobowości: potrzeby poznawczego domknięcia oraz sterowności, mają predyspozycje pozwalające im być lepszymi daktyloskopami w porównaniu z innymi osobami. Badanie złożone było z trzech etapów: wypełnienia kwestionariuszy osobowości, szkolenia z zakresu badań śladów daktyloskopijnych, a na koniec z zadania związanego z tą tematyką. W zadaniu odpowiednio manipulowano jego treścią, aby wprowadzić złudzenia poznawcze, przez które osoby badane miały częściej udzielać błędnych odpowiedzi. Nie stwierdzono istotnej korelacji między badanymi cechami a poprawnością, błędami, ostrożnością oraz stanowczością w wykonanym zadaniu. Probanci znacznie częściej udzielali błędnych odpowiedzi. Wykazano pozytywną korelację dodatnią czasu z liczbą poprawnych odpowiedzi w zadaniu. Zauważono także istotną korelację dodatnią między preferowaniem porządku a ostrożnością w wykonywaniu zadania. Otrzymane wyniki mogą posłużyć w typowaniu osób, które lepiej będą porównywać ślady daktyloskopijne.

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1 Decyzje

1 Problemy Kryminalistyki

1 Czupryna M.

1 Ignaszak M.

1 Kubińska E.

1 Markiewicz Ł.

2 2020

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THE ROLE OF NEED FOR STRUCTURE IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND HOW IDENTIFYING INFORMATION IN PRICE MOVEMENTS RAISES TRADERS’ CONFIDENCE

Wpływ wybranych cech osobowości na przebieg i wyniki porównywania śladów daktyloskopijnych