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Extreme gradient boosting method in the prediction of company bankruptcy

100%
Pawełek B.
Statistics in Transition new series
|
2019
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vol. 20
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issue 2
155-171
EN
Machine learning methods are increasingly being used to predict company bankruptcy. Comparative studies carried out on selected methods to determine their suitability for predicting company bankruptcy have demonstrated high levels of prediction accuracy for the extreme gradient boosting method in this area. This method is resistant to outliers and relieves the researcher from the burden of having to provide missing data. The aim of this study is to assess how the elimination of outliers from data sets affects the accuracy of the extreme gradient boosting method in predicting company bankruptcy. The added value of this study is demonstrated by the application of the extreme gradient boosting method in bankruptcy prediction based on data free from the outliers reported for companies which continue to operate as a going concern. The research was conducted using 64 financial ratios for the companies operating in the industrial processing sector in Poland. The research results indicate that it is possible to increase the detection rate for bankrupt companies by eliminating the outliers reported for companies which continue to operate as a going concern from data sets.
2
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Credibility of Discriminatory Models on the Example of Enterprises from the Lubelskie and Podkarpackie Voivodeships

89%
Pitera R., Chmiel J., Kozioł K.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2020
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vol. 54
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issue 3
EN
Theoretical background: The results of the conducted research allowed the classification of early-warning models according to the accuracy of the forecasts received for the last year of the study. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article was verification and prognostic assessment of discriminative models popular among researchers, answer to the question whether the model properly reflects the financial situation of the company. Research methods: The basis of all the methods used in this article was the analysis of existing data and methods of discriminant analysis. Main findings: The selected models properly reflected the financial situation of the 84 enterprises surveyed.
PL
Theoretical background: The results of the conducted research allowed the classification of early-warning models according to the accuracy of the forecasts received for the last year of the study.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article was verification and prognostic assessment of discriminative models popular among researchers, answer to the question whether the model properly reflects the financial situation of the company.Research methods: The basis of all the methods used in this article was the analysis of existing data and methods of discriminant analysis.Main findings: The selected models properly reflected the financial situation of the 84 enterprises surveyed.
3
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Application of the management factor and labour productivity index to assess the enterprise’s bankruptcy risk

63%
Kozioł W., Zych W.
Zeszyty Naukowe Małopolskiej Wyższej Szkoły Ekonomicznej w Tarnowie
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2019
|
issue 4(44)
131-141
EN
The functioning and development of an enterprise requires an appropriate level of management that can be analyzed on the basis of financial data reported by the entity. The article presents the concept of measuring the management level using the labour productivity indicator and the management level indicator. These are indicators derived from the model of the analytical production function, integrating a number of economic quantities in the field of financial analysis. This function is a financial model of natural production processes taking place in enterprises and consistent with classic cost accounting. From the point of view of the company’s financial equilibrium, the question arises whether these indicators reflect the financial position of the company well enough so that they can be used to assess the risk of bankruptcy of the company. The aim of the study is a comparative analysis of the dynamics of indicators: level of management and labour productivity in enterprises threatened by collapse and those enterprises retaining the ability to continue their operational activities. The second group of enterprises was chosen using selected methods of discriminant analysis.
PL
Przetrwanie i rozwój przedsiębiorstwa wymagają odpowiedniego poziomu zarządzania, który można analizować na podstawie danych finansowych wypracowanych przez jednostkę. W artykule przedstawiono koncepcję pomiaru poziomu zarządzania za pomocą wskaźnika produktywności pracy i wskaźnika poziomu zarządzania. Są to wskaźniki wywodzące się z modelu analitycznej funkcji produkcji, integrujące szereg wielkości ekonomicznych z zakresu analizy finansowej. Funkcja ta stanowi finansowe odwzorowanie naturalnych procesów produkcyjnych przebiegających w przedsiębiorstwach oraz w zgodzie z klasycznym rachunkiem kosztów. Z punktu widzenia równowagi finansowej przedsiębiorstwa pojawia się pytanie, czy wskaźniki te na tyle dobrze odzwierciedlają sytuację finansową przedsiębiorstwa, że mogą zostać wykorzystane do oceny zagrożenia upadłością przedsiębiorstwa. Celem pracy jest analiza porównawcza dynamiki wskaźników poziomu zarządzania i produktywności pracy w przedsiębiorstwach zagrożonych upadkiem oraz tych zachowujących zdolność do kontynuacji działania. Druga z wymienionych grup przedsiębiorstw została wyłoniona za pomocą wybranych metod analizy dyskryminacyjnej.
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