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On the quick estimation of probability of recovery from COVID-19 during first wave of epidemic in India: a logistic regression approach

100%

Joshi H., Azarudheen S., Nagaraja M. S., Chandraketu S.

Statistics in Transition new series

2022

vol. 23

issue 2

197-208

The COVID-19 pandemic has recently become a threat all across the globe with the rising cases every day and many countries experiencing its outbreak. According to the WHO, the virus is capable of spreading at an exponential rate across countries, and India is now one of the worst-affected country in the world. Researchers all around the world are racing to come up with a cure or treatment for COVID-19, and this is creating extreme pressure on the policy makers and epidemiologists. However, in India the recovery rate has been far better than in other countries, and is steadily improving. Still in such a difficult situation with no effective medicine, it is essential to know if a patient with the COVID-19 is going to recover or die. To meet this end, a model has been developed in this article to estimate the probability of a recovery of a patient based on the demographic characteristics. The study used data published by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of India for the empirical analysis.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behavior. The Role of Lack of Control and Risk Perception on Stockpiling

67%

Maison D., Adamczyk D., Wnuk A., Oleksy T.

Problemy Zarządzania

2022

vol. 20

issue 3(97)

4-26

Cel: pandemia COVID-19 gwałtownie zmieniła życie ludzi na całym świecie w zakresie zarówno zdrowia, codziennych nawyków, pracy, jak i zachowań konsumenckich. Celem badania było zmierzenie intensywności gromadzenia zapasów w Polsce jako odpowiedzi na pojawienie się pandemii COVID-19 oraz zbadanie roli czynników psychologicznych (poczucie kontroli i subiektywne postrzeganie ryzyka zakażenia koronawirusem) dla gromadzenia różnych rodzajów produktów. Metodologia: badanie przeprowadzono w kwietniu 2020 roku na ogólnopolskiej reprezentatywnej próbie losowo-kwotowej (n=1046) krótko po wykryciu pierwszego zakażenia COVID-19 w Polsce. W tym czasie w Polsce, podobnie jak w wielu innych krajach, zaobserwowano pewne zmiany w zachowaniach zakupowych, zwłaszcza zwiększoną częstotliwość zakupów i intensywność gromadzenia zapasów. Wyniki: wyniki pokazały, że czynniki wpływające na zachowania konsumentów, takie jak robienie zapasów czy większe wydatki na zakupy związane i niezwiązane z pandemią, są wyjaśniane nie tylko przez zmienne demograficzne, lecz także przez czynniki psychologiczne, takie jak doświadczenie braku kontroli i strach przed zakażeniem koronawirusem. Ograniczenia/implikacje badawcze: badanie ma implikacje dotyczące zarządzania sprzedażą i logistyką. W sytuacji kryzysowej (nie tylko bezpośrednio związanej z kryzysem gospodarczym i konsumpcją) zarówno producenci podstawowych produktów, jak i ich sprzedawcy powinni być przygotowani na zwiększone zainteresowanie zakupem tych produktów i odpowiednio zapewnić ich dostęp konsumentom. Wskazane byłoby również kontrolowanie komunikatów w przestrzeni publicznej, które mogłyby wywołać niepokój.

Purpose: The coronavirus pandemic has suddenly changed the lives of people all over the world, both in terms of their health, everyday habits, work, and the patterns of their consumer behavior. The goal of our study was first to examine the intensity of stockpiling in Poland that appeared in response to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and explore the role of psychological factors (sense of control over the pandemic and subjective perception of the risk of getting infected with the coronavirus) for different dimensions of stockpiling. Design/methodology/approach: The study was conducted in April 2020 on a nationwide representative random-quota sample (n=1,046) shortly after the first COVID-19 infection was diagnosed in Poland. At the time, certain changes in shopping behavior, especially increased purchase frequencies and stockpiling intensity, were observed in Poland, similarly to many other countries. Findings: The results showed that the factors affecting consumer behavior, such as making supplies or spending more on pandemic-related and unrelated items, are explained not only by demographic variables but also by psychological factors such as the experience of a lack of control and fear of being infected with the coronavirus. Research limitations/implications: The study has managerial implications regarding sales and logistics management. In an emergency situation (not only directly related to the economic crisis and consumption), both producers of basic products and retailers should be prepared for increased interest in the purchase of these products and provide access to consumers accordingly. Controlling communications in public spaces that could generate anxiety would be advisable too. Originality/value: The conducted study shows that the shopping behavior during the onset of the COVID‑19 pandemic was predicted by fear of the coronavirus and feelings of a lack of control.

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1 Problemy Zarządzania

1 Statistics in Transition new series

1 Adamczyk D.

1 Azarudheen S.

1 Chandraketu S.

1 Joshi H.

1 Maison D.

1 Nagaraja M. S.

1 Oleksy T.

1 Wnuk A.

2 2022

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On the quick estimation of probability of recovery from COVID-19 during first wave of epidemic in India: a logistic regression approach

The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behavior. The Role of Lack of Control and Risk Perception on Stockpiling