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Credit booms in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Are they related?

100%
Vymyatnina Y. V., Antonova D.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
|
2014
|
issue 3(45)
102-121
EN
In this paper we analyze the dynamics of domestic credits in the three countries of the recently formed Eurasian Economic Union: Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to see if it affects the dynamics of major macroeconomic variables, and if any interactions between the countries can be found. We have identified one credit boom in each country in the period from 1995:2 to 2014:1. The timings of credit booms in different countries are not related to each other, but rather to external events like the world economic and financial crisis of 2007–2008 or the initiation of the Customs Union between the three countries in mid-2010. The analysis of changes in the real per capita GDP and its main components (consumption, investments and government expenditures) confirms the results of the previous studies regarding growth process in the three countries.
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Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

84%
Reinhart C. M., Rogoff K. S.
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
|
2015
|
issue 2(4)
5-17
EN
Even after one of the most severe multi-year crises on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The current phase of the official policy approach is predicated on the assumption that debt sustainability can be achieved through a mix of austerity, forbearance and growth. The claim is that advanced countries do not need to resort to the standard toolkit of emerging markets, including debt restructurings and conversions, higher inflation, capital controls and other forms of financial repression. As we document, this claim is at odds with the historical track record of most advanced economies, where debt restructuring or conversions, financial repression, and a tolerance for higher inflation, or a combination of these were an integral part of the resolution of significant past debt overhangs.
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