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EN
Research background: Sovereign credit ratings play an important role in determining any country?s access to the international debt market. During the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, credit rating agencies were harshly criticized for the timing of their announcements regarding ratings downgrades and the ranges of those downgrades. Therefore, it is worth considering whether the sovereign credit rating is still a useful benchmark for investors. Purpose of the article: This article examines whether credit rating agencies still provide financial markets with new information about the solvency of governments in Emerging Europe countries. In addition, it describes the differences in the effect of particular types of rating events on financial markets and the impact of individual agencies on the market situation. Our study also focuses on evaluating these occurrences at different stages of the business cycle. Methods: This article uses data about ratings events that took place between 2008 and 2018 in 17 Emerging Europe economies. We took into consideration positive, neutral, and negative events related to ratings changes and the outlooks reported by Fitch Ratings, Moody?s, and Standard & Poor?s. We used a methodology based on event studies. In addition, we performed Wilcoxon signed-ranks test and used a logit model to determine the usefulness of cumulative adjusted credit default swap (CDS) spread changes in predicting the direction of ratings changes. Findings & Value added: Our research provides evidence that the CDS market reflects information regarding government issuers up to three months before ratings downgrades are announced. Information reported to the market by ratings agencies is only relevant in the short timeframe surrounding ratings downgrades and upgrades. However, positive credit rating changes convey more information to the market. We also found strong evidence that, in the post-crisis period, credit ratings provide markets with less information.
PL
Przedmiotem artykułu jest rola agencji ratingowych w zarządzaniu problemami związanymi z globalizacją rynków finansowych, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem modelu zarządzania wielopoziomowego. Agencje ratingowe stały się ważnym elementem procesu zarządzania problemami związanymi z globalizacją rynków finansowych. Specyfika przedmiotu ich działania oraz funkcji regulacyjnych wskazuje kierunek, w którym zmierzają poszukiwania nowych metod radzenia sobie z wyzwaniami ery globalizacji. Rozszerzanie pola inicjatyw regulacyjnych na nowych aktorów i nowe formy działania, jak np. działalność samoregulacyjną, zasadniczo zwiększają elastyczność systemu międzynarodowego i jego dopasowanie do nowych wyzwań. A to z kolei prowadzi do wypracowywania w praktyce nowego modelu zarządzania problemami kreowanymi przez procesy globalizacji – modelu zarządzania wielopoziomowego.
EN
One of the biggest challenges of the modern world is the problem of new models of international system governance under the globalization processes. Given the multidimensional nature of globalization answers to this question have been sought through processes of international negotiations between nation states. However it is increasingly clear that nation-states are unable to effectively steer international system without an involvement of other actors operating on different levels. The article deals with the role played by credit rating agencies in the multilevel governance of financial markets under the globalization processes. There is no doubt that credit rating agencies became an important element of this new model of governance. The idea of multilevel governance has acquired unprecedented importance today. It not only suggests ways of dealing with new conditions of globalization, but is said to be an essential term for understanding the transnational processes and for identifying non-traditional actors involved in governance processes on different levels.
EN
Credit rating agencies play an important role in the world due to the fact that rating has become a reliable indicator of the evaluation of a debt investment. A reliable agency that is globally recognised ought to be independent, objective, professional, ethical and substantive. Rating itself constitutes an opinion that concerns the possibility of servicing of payment obligations made by a given entity. It is also frequently defined as an independent and objective evaluation of credit risk of a given entity wishing to contract a debt. Rating is a dynamic category concerning the future, therefore each forecast is surrounded by uncertainty. Ratings of individual agencies may differ considerably. The aim of the article is to discuss the role of international rating as a credibility measure of a state, the role of credit rating agencies, of the rules of rating and of the level of rating for the countries of the European Union, especially given the fact that rating for a country is reflected in its credibility and attractiveness.
EN
The aim of the article is to demonstrate the use of credit ratings for regulatory purposes in the EU. In principle, they increase competition on the EU market of rating services. For this purpose all EU institutions should automatically accept the ratings issued by credit rating agencies registered by European Securities and Markets Authority. Unfortunately, the Eurosystem does not accept this principle. Its actions discriminate small credit rating agencies and consolidate oligopolistic market structure.
PL
Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie zasady wykorzystania ratingów kredytowych do celów regulacyjnych w Unii Europejskiej. W założeniu zasady te powinny zwiększać konkurencję na rynku usług ratingowych. W tym celu wszystkie unijne instytucje powinny automatycznie akceptować ratingi kredytowe wystawiane przez agencje ratingowe zarejestrowane przez Europejski Urząd Nadzoru Giełd i Papierów Wartościowych. Niestety, zasada ta nie jest akceptowana przez Eurosystem. Jego działania dyskryminują małe agencje ratingowe, konsolidując oligopolistyczną strukturę rynkową.
EN
The paper presents some ethical aspects of the credit rating agencies (CRAs) market in the light of the latest economic crisis of 2008. A historical background is also shown and how the CRA market emerged. It is emphasised how the functioning of CRAs contributed to the outbreak of the crisis and what were the consequences of over- or underestimated rating grades. The downgrading of a country has a significant influence on the deterioration of the economic condition. Simultaneously, it afflicts the citizens, who have to pay for it e.g. with higher tax rates. It is believed that overestimated ratings lead to a speculative bubble, which ends up with the crisis. The paper indicates the problems connected with the way that CRAs operate and how they relate to business ethics. The fact that those institutions are profitprofile entities, which earn their income from clients, whose financial instruments are assessed, may bring about a conflict of interests. Moreover, it is outlined how the governmental policies of countries left CRAs without any particular control, which in the end was a significant factor, too. Finally, some potential solutions are discussed, and how the approach of CRA managers should change in order to prevent the market from similar situations in the future.
PL
Celem artykułu jest określenie wpływu determinant na rating kredytowy przyznawany przez agencje ratingowe krajom europejskim. W artykule dokonano przeglądu literaturowego w tym zakresie. Przeanalizowano metodologię nadawania ocen przez poszczególne agencje, a następnie zestawiono otrzymane wyniki. Do badania empirycznego zastosowano statyczne modele panelowe. Wykorzystano dane pochodzące z bazy Banku Światowego oraz z bazy danych Thomson Reuters. Badanie obejmowało lata 2002–2012. Jako zmienne zależne wykorzystano długo- i krótkookresowe ratingi kredytowe przyznawane przez agencje Standard & Poor’s oraz Moody’s Investors Services. Ratingi zdekomponowano liniowo na zmienne numeryczne. Jako zmienne zależne wykorzystano dane makroekonomiczne, m.in. PKB per capita, tempo wzrostu realnego PKB, stopę inflacji, deficyt budżetowy, salda na rachunku obrotów bieżących, zadłużenie zagraniczne do PKB, rezerwy walutowe.
EN
The purpose of this article is to analyze factors that can influence the credit rating granted to European countries by rating agencies. The article analyzes the literature in this field. Methodology used for credit ratings assessment by individual agencies was analyzed, and then the results were summarized. For the empirical study static panel models were used. Data from the World Bank database and the Thomson Reuters database was taken into consideration. The study covered the period 2002–2012. Dependent variables were used as long- and short-term credit ratings given by Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investor Services. The ratings were decomposed linearly for numeric variables. Macroeconomic data was used as dependent variables, among other things, data such as GDP per capita, real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, balance on the current account, external debt to GDP, foreign exchange reserves.
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