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The Dynamics of Cryptocurrency Price Volatility in the Face of the Crisis on the Example of Bitcoin and Ethereum

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Przyłuska-Schmitt J., Jegorow D., Bučková J.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2023
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vol. 57
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issue 2
101-113
EN
Theoretical background: Over the years, investing in cryptocurrencies has become very popular, and until recently, investors have predicted Bitcoin as a “safe haven”. Belief in a decentralized virtual currency even prompted the Salvadoran government to recognize Bitcoin as a legal tender in September 2021. However, cryptocurrency has depreciated significantly since then. The high amplitude of the fluctuations shows that on November 10, 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of USD 68,979, and on June 18, 2022, it fell to its low of USD 17,601. Today, investors are wondering if investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies still make sense. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to compare the price fluctuations of the most popular cryptocurrencies, i.e. Bitcoin and Ethereum in the currently observed economic crisis in the world and the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. Research methods: Observations of the cryptocurrency market and theoretical issues of its functioning were combined with the analysis of empirical data of Bitcoin and Ethereum quotations from January 2022 to June 2022. The basic research instruments were based on the analysis of dependencies and descriptive statistics. The conducted analysis of the time series was aimed at detecting the nature of the studied phenomenon represented by the sequence of observations of daily quotations and forecasting future values of the time series. In this context, the course of Bitcoin and Ethereum quotations was examined in two categories: Close and Market Cap in search of a potential development pattern. Main findings: The conducted research shows that strong and unpredictable fluctuations in the prices of the studied cryptocurrencies, especially in the period of market shocks, imply unknown uncertainty, much more important than investment decisions made under the conditions of measurable risk. Cryptocurrencies cannot function as an alternative to gold, enabling value to be stored, as confirmed by market quotations over the past months.
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