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Gospodarki wschodzące w obliczu kryzysu finansowego: duża odporność czy podatność?

100%

Wojtyna A.

Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

2010

vol. 242

issue 9

25-45

The paper is concerned with selected aspects oftheoretical and empirical analysis that help better understand the role of factors determining the resilience of medium-developed countries to financial crises. The analysis is made in the context of the latest crisis, which began in highly developed economies. The second part of the paper focuses on some widely disputed issues involving a theoretical explanation of the causes behind the latest crisis. Even though, in the case of emerging market economies, the original causes behind the crisis can be treated as external ones, Wojtyna says, they need to be scrutinized because of the interaction between the financial sector and the real economy. This interaction is similar in both medium-developed and highly developed countries, according to the author. Part 3 focuses on global imbalances and their role in transmitting the crisis to and from medium-developed countries. This trend is linked with the wider problem of the costs and benefits of financial globalization and the decoupling hypothesis debated in the context of business cycles in highly and medium-developed economies. Part 4 discusses the results of empirical studies designed to check the importance of factors determining the resilience of medium-developed countries to the latest crisis. A more detailed evaluation of the resilience of emerging market economies to the latest crisis could be made after anti-crisis measures taken by governments and central banks in highly developed countries cease to influence these countries’ economies, Wojtyna says. Preliminary findings in this area are encouraging for medium-developed countries, he adds. According to the author, changes in macroeconomic policy as well as structural and institutional changes carried out in response to previous crises have significantly reduced medium-developed countries’ vulnerability to global crises.

Zastosowanie analizy spektralnej do weryfikacji hipotezy o rozłączeniu się gospodarek rozwiniętych i wschodzących

63%

Stańczyk Z., Wyrobek J.

Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

2013

issue 920

5-21

Celem artykułu było przedstawienie hipotezy rozłączenia się (decoupling), czyli pojawienia się względnej niezależności gospodarek rozwijających się od gospodarek rozwiniętych oraz empiryczna weryfikacja tej hipotezy w świetle zmian w gospodarce światowej w ostatniej dekadzie. Wbrew tezom M. Kose’a, Ch. Otroka, i E.S. Prasada (2008) zauważono, że nie ma podstaw do twierdzenia, że przed globalnym kryzysem wystąpiło rozłączenie się aktywności gospodarczej pomiędzy gospodarkami rozwiniętymi i wschodzącymi w krajach rozwiniętych, a okres kryzysu globalnego charakteryzował się nawet większą wzajemną zależnością obu grup krajów. Metody obliczeniowe polegały na usunięciu trendu (i ewentualnie usunięciu dryfu) w celu uzyskania stacjonarnych szeregów. Następnie niecykliczne zmiany w szeregach zostały usunięte za pomocą filtru Christiano-Fitzgeralda i wreszcie cykliczne części realnego PKB zostały zbadane z wykorzystaniem analizy spektralnej oraz kospektralnej.

The paper discusses the viability of the decoupling hypothesis, which states that the performance of emerging economies becomes relatively independent from the changes in developed economies, and empirically verifies this hypothesis in the light of global economic developments over the past decade. Despite a very influential paper by Kose, Otrok, and Prasad (2008), we argue that there is no evidence that decoupling between developed and emerging economies took place before the last global financial crisis. In fact, the case was quite the contrary ‒ ties between the two groups of countries strengthened during the crisis years. It seems that either decoupling never took place or the recent crisis began a new trend of re-coupling, which is the instance of emerging economies returning to a state of strong dependence on their more developed counterparts. At the same time it raises doubts as to whether the high rates of growth in emerging economies can be sustained in the face of slowing growth in developed economies. In terms of methodology, linear and quadratic de-trending were used to obtain stationary data, then non-cyclical movements were removed with the Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter. The cyclical parts of real GDP time series were then subjected to spectral and co-spectral analysis.

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1 Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

1 Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

1 Stańczyk Z.

1 Wojtyna A.

1 Wyrobek J.

1 2013

1 2010

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Gospodarki wschodzące w obliczu kryzysu finansowego: duża odporność czy podatność?

Zastosowanie analizy spektralnej do weryfikacji hipotezy o rozłączeniu się gospodarek rozwiniętych i wschodzących