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Uncertainty of forecasting (in)solvency of pension system based on the NDC model

100%

Chybalski F.

Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

2015

issue 1 (47)

56-67

The main purpose of this paper is to identify and characterise the factors of uncertainty in forecasting the (in)solvency of a pension system based on the non-financial defined contribution model (NDC) and to evaluate the forecasting function of automatic balance mechanisms (ABM). The study is theoretical and empirical. It dismisses the hypothesis of automatic balancing of the NDC model, which justifies the forecasting of its (in)solvency. The paper discusses the problem of uncertainty in the long-term forecasting of the (in)solvency of a pension system and shows the rationale of applying ABM. It has an important forecasting function and support a long-term financial balance in the NDC model. The empirical part of the paper discusses, using a case study, the ABM-based principles of indexation in Sweden, considered to be exemplary in literature. They are juxtaposed to the principles of indexation under the Polish 1st pillar functioning without ABM and are detached from the changes in the economic and demographic conditions of the pension system.

OCHRONA RYZYKA STAROŚCI A ODRZUCONE PARADYGMATY SPOŁECZNEGO UBEZPIECZENIA EMERYTALNEGO

86%

Kalina-Prasznic U.

Polityka Społeczna

2011

vol. 38

issue 4(445)

7-11

The superannuation system introduced in Poland in 1999 has largely limited the constitutional right of individuals to social security after retirement as it lacks primary features (paradigms) of social insurance. In the first pillar insurance scheme (repartition scheme), some of the superannuation insurance paradigms have been retained (including solidarity and redistribution). However, new elements such as individual accounts (with contribution payments record) or defined contribution payments have grossly reduced the retirement risk protection turning the superannuation insurance compulsory saving scheme. The second pillar insurance scheme (capital scheme), by definition, is not a typical social insurance. It is based on the system of compulsory individual investments where a number of risks, including both individual risk (biotic risk) and general risk (market, political etc.), are imposed on its members and social solidarity effects are eliminated.

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1 Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics

1 Polityka Społeczna

1 Chybalski F.

1 Kalina-Prasznic U.

1 2015

1 2011

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Uncertainty of forecasting (in)solvency of pension system based on the NDC model

OCHRONA RYZYKA STAROŚCI A ODRZUCONE PARADYGMATY SPOŁECZNEGO UBEZPIECZENIA EMERYTALNEGO