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Changes in the Procreative Behaviour in Poland and Some Impacts of the Process on the Size and Age Structure of Population as Revealed by Demographic Projections

100%
Lange M., Uniwersytet Łódzki; Wydział Ekonomiczno-Socjologiczny; Instytut Statystyki i Demografii
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2011
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vol. 250
EN
In the 1990s, fertility was dropping rapidly in Poland. According to the GUS and the UN projections, low fertility may continue in the next decades. The procre- ative behaviour changes irreversibly affect the age structure of population. If the fertility level as low as it is today continued, the number of births would be ultimately reduced by almost half compared with the present numbers. However, the structure of population would be changing gradually. First the number of the pre-school children would change and then of those at school age. The high variant of the UN World Population Prospects is the only one where the number of the children aged 0–4 years is growing to the year 2020. If fertility does not change their number will, however, drop dramatically from ca 1.8 million that we have today to below 1 million in 2050. Decreasing fertility may distort the demographic structure in the long term by re- ducing the share of children and contributing to a relatively overrepresented proportion of old persons. Because of fertility falling from the 1990s and the appearance of baby boomers and baby busters, the size of the working-age population (15–64 years) will grow smaller after 2015. The aging process will also continue. The median age will grow to approx. 50 years in 2050. The dependency ratio will also increase and there will be 70 working-age persons per 100 persons aged 15–64 years, instead of slightly more than 40 that we have today.
2
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Poprawa współczynnika potencjalnego wsparcia jako element kompleksowej reformy systemu ubezpieczeń emerytalnych

88%
Liszatyński D.
Prosopon. Europejskie Studia Społeczno-Humanistyczne
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2018
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issue 1(22)
75-86
EN
The Polish pension system, in the face of the rapid aging of Polish society, may soon turn out to be insolvent. Therefore, remedial measures are necessary to maintain its stability. The article discusses demographic forecasts concerning the Polish population that directly affect the deteriorating situation of the pension system. There are also presented solutions proposed so far to save the system, such as introducing a citizen’s pension or increasing the retirement age. Next, there are presented more comprehensive proposals of systemic reforms, related to stimulating the growth of the working-age population, as an attempt to improve the decreasing potential support ratio.
3
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Stan i perspektywy procesu starzenia się ludności na świecie

51%
Murkowski R.
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2020
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vol. 2
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issue 347
7-21
EN
The aging of the population is the process of increasing the proportion of older people in the population, which is the result of two long‑term demographic trends: a decrease in fertility and an increase in life expectancy. For the correct measurement of the advancement of this process, it is extremely important what age we consider the beginning of the old age. In the traditional approach older people are most often considered to be people over 60 or 65 years of age. In the alternative approach the beginning of the old age can be considered the age which the expected life expectancy is exactly 15 years. In many parts of the world, the phenomenon of depopulation may appear in the coming years, and the number of children will be lower than the number of older people. In the future, older people will be in nearly one third of their entire population in many regions. However, the percentage of people who have 15 or fewer years to live will stabilize in the future at about 15% of the total population in the most developed countries. Therefore, the beginning of the old age will grow in the future up to 70 years and more in the most developed countries.
PL
Starzenie się ludności oznacza proces wzrostu odsetka osób starszych w populacji, który jest efektem dwóch długoterminowych trendów demograficznych – zmniejszania się płodności i zwiększania się przeciętnej długości życia. Dla prawidłowego pomiaru zaawansowania tego procesu niezmiernie istotne jest to, jaki wiek uznamy za początek starości. W ujęciu tradycyjnym za osoby starsze uznaje się najczęściej osoby w wieku 60 lub 65 lat i więcej. Natomiast w alternatywnym ujęciu za początek okresu starości można uznać na przykład wiek, dla którego oczekiwane dalsze trwanie życia wynosi dokładnie 15 lat. W wielu miejscach na świecie nieuchronnie wystąpi w przyszłości zjawisko depopulacji, a liczba dzieci stanie się niższa od liczby osób starszych. Osoby w wieku 60 lat i więcej będą w przyszłości stanowić w wielu regionach blisko jedną trzecią ludności. Natomiast odsetek osób, którym zostało mniej niż 15 lat życia, w krajach najbardziej rozwiniętych ustabilizuje się w przyszłości na poziomie około 15% ich populacji. Dlatego granica określająca początek okresu starości w ujęciu tradycyjnym będzie się w przyszłości zwiększać nawet do 70 lat i więcej w państwach najbardziej rozwiniętych.
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