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Slowdown of the Polish Economy: Model-Based Simulations

100%
Welfe W., Florczak W.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2010
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vol. 242
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issue 9
47-64
EN
The global financial crisis, and especially the recession that spread across Europe in 2009, also affected Poland. While the Polish economy continued to grow throughout 2009, its growth decelerated considerably in quarterly terms. The paper examines the determinants of the slowdown, based on a simulation macroeconomic model called W8D-2007. The model’s properties are briefly outlined, and then a baseline medium-term forecast is introduced and some simulation exercises are shown, dealing mainly with pessimistic scenarios. By means of simulations based on the W8D model, the paper tries to show the key factors behind the serious slowdown in the Polish economy in 2009. The model examines the impact of declining exports and FDI, on the one hand, and the growing investment risk and positive changes in household consumption, on the other. The possible impact of fiscal and monetary policies is also examined. The effects of a reduction of income tax rates and social contribution rates as well as the implications of an increased budget deficit are also shown, and finally the impact of declining interest rates on investment and consumer demand is evaluated. The likely effects of measures aimed at constraining the increase of unemployment rates are also analyzed. The results are compared with changing forecasts for the Polish economy presented during 2009.
2
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"Klątwa surowcowa" a czynniki geograficzne i instytucjonalne

72%
Kożuchowski A.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2010
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vol. 239
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issue 4
21-45
EN
The paper uses a set of international data to analyze the impact of countries’ resource abundance on their long-term economic growth. In particular, the author focuses on explaining the essence of what is known as the "resource curse". He uses two groups of determinants, geographical and institutional. The paper begins with a look at the gist of the problem, with the author discussing the rationale behind the research. This is followed by a discussion of other research reports on the subject and a short description of other authors’ findings. In the next part of the paper, Kożuchowski describes his own research method and the set of variables that he uses for his OLS-regression model. The parameters are estimated with the use of geographical and institutional variables, separately for each group, and the final versions of the models are selected on the basis of a set of reliable statistical tests, Kożuchowski says. The author makes several assumptions about "the resource curse". His research shows that key factors of growth include economic openness and political stability, while most geographical factors are not statistically or intuitively significant, Kożuchowski says. The author emphasizes the role of soft data for that kind of research. The results show that such variables adequately reflect the institutional position of countries, Kożuchowski concludes.
3
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Kontrowersje wokół ekonomii i ekonomistów

61%
Kowalczyk S.
Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie
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2018
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vol. 48
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issue 3
9-22
EN
Economics, like other sciences, is met with critical remarks and polemics from other areas of knowledge related to their findings and achievements. However, what distinguishes the critical trend towards economics and economists, especially in recent years, is special. It is characterized first of all by the exceptional intensity of critics, often taking the form of an attack, depreciating the status of economics as a science, and secondly, more and more frequent critical comments from the economists themselves. These issues are the subject of this article. The author tries to identify the main reasons for these critical remarks, he is considering the reality of the economic crisis and the sources of weakening the social prestige of economists. In conclusion, the actions necessary to reverse these trends that are unfavor-able for economics and economists are outlined.
PL
Ekonomia, podobnie jak i inne nauki, spotyka się z uwagami krytycznymi oraz polemikami ze strony innych dziedzin wiedzy, odnoszonymi do ich ustaleń i osiągnięć. Jednak to co wyróżnia krytyczny nurt pod adresem ekonomii oraz ekonomistów, zwłaszcza w ostatnich latach, jest szczególne. Charakteryzuje go po pierwsze, wyjątkowa intensywność krytyki, przybierającej często wręcz znamiona ataku deprecjonującego status ekonomii jako nauki oraz po drugie, coraz częstsze uwagi krytyczne pochodzące od samych ekonomistów. Zagadnienia te są przedmiotem niniejszego artykułu. Autor stara się zidentyfikować główne przyczyny tych krytycznych uwag, zastanawia się nad realnością kryzysu ekonomii i źródłami osłabienia prestiżu społecznego ekonomistów. W konkluzji stara się nakreślić działania niezbędne do odwrócenia tych niekorzystnych dla ekonomii i ekonomistów tendencji.
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