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Discounting and ideas of intergenerational equity and sustainability

100%
RYBICKI W.
Operations Research and Decisions
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2012
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vol. 22
|
issue 1
63-84
EN
Some aspects of discounting of infinite streams of economic quantities (consumption, saving, utility) are considered. The main points of the paper may be summarized as follows. The philosophy of discounting concerns methods of evaluation and/or comparison of multi-period phenomena and processes. The techniques applied (numerical, analytical) may equalize the gravity of subsequent generations or privilege certain generations rather than other ones. They can – to some extent – influence quality of life and the chances of survival in future generations. These (quite natural) connections between discounting and intergenerational justice and sustainability have been pointed out. Systems of axioms for “ethical” and “sustainable” preferences are presented, together with some related (sub)disciplines. Inspirations derived mainly from psychology suggest the modification of the geometric discounting paradigm by slowing down the convergence of discount factors to zero. It should be pointed out that such “heavy tailed” discounting has proved to be useful (and become strongly recommended) for evaluation of a variety of long-time horizon undertakings. Some examples of non-classical discounting rules are given. Finally, the author’s proposal of modeling the duration of the world as a Poisson random variable has been formulated.
2
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Investment Profitability Evaluation on the Basis of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Discount Method (NPV)

88%
Dziaduch I.
Logistics and Transport
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2010
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vol. 10
19-24
EN
The initial thesis of this paper asserts that the present life cycle costs method is a sensitive instrument for investment profitability evaluation. To prove this thesis the analysis of life cycle cost as well as life cycle cost present value have been revealed. On this basis models have been formed which allow to estimate current value of forward life cycle costs which we will incurr to realize a particular enterprise.
3
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Growth and Decline of Assets: On Biased Judgments of Asset Accumulation and Investment Decisions

88%
Gonzalez N., Svenson O.
Polish Psychological Bulletin
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2014
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vol. 45
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issue 1
29-35
EN
Previous research showed that accumulations of capital following stationary interest rates are underestimated by human judges. Hyperbolic discounting was suggested as a descriptive and explanatory model for this phenomenon. First, we investigated judged accumulated capital after a period of annual growth and decline. The degree of underestimation increased with accumulated growth and the results supported hyperbolic discounting as a descriptive model on the group level. However, the hyperbolic model did not apply to the data for one third of the participants. Second, we investigated how investment decisions were related to capital accumulation before the investments and to judgments of the possible outcomes of the future investments. To our surprise, the participants’ judgments of expected future accumulated capital did not add predictive power to predictions based on whether there was growth or decline before the investment decision. Unfortunately this strategy leads to suboptimal investment decisions.
4

Ocena opłacalności projektu inwestycyjnego z użyciem opcji realnej

75%
Bednarz K.
|
2018
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vol. 10(46)
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issue 4
71-90
PL
Tradycyjne podejście do oceny rentowności projektu inwestycyjnego charakteryzuje się statyczną formułą. Polega na tym, że raz przyjęte założenia i obliczenia związane z inwestycją są stałe i pozostają niezmienne. Dlatego zarówno literatura, jak i praktyka wykorzystują tzw. realną wycenę opcji (ROV), która charakteryzuje się pewną elastycznością w podejściu do pierwotnych założeń. Zaistniała więc potrzeba wyceny takiej elastyczności, która pojawia się w większości projektów inwestycyjnych. Podejście opcyjne przedstawione w artykule (opcje rzeczywiste) daje menedżerom większe możliwości podejmowania decyzji, ponieważ eliminuje podstawowe wady tradycyjnych obliczeń, w których po przyjęciu określonych założeń już nic nie można zmienić. W artykule przedstawiono praktyczne zastosowanie wybranej wyceny rzeczywistej opcji w odniesieniu do konkretnego projektu inwestycyjnego.
EN
The traditional approach to assessing the profitability of investment Project is characterized by a static formulation. It consists in the fact that once adopted assumptions yet at the stage of calculation and all calculations related to the investment are fixed and remain unchanged. Therefore, both the literature and practice use the so-called real option valuation (ROV), which is characterized by a certain flexibility in the approach to original assumptions. Thus, there was a need to value such flexibility that appears in most investment projects. Optional approach presented in the article (real option) gives managers more possibilities in making decisions because it eliminates the basic disadvantages of traditional calculations in which once adopted assumptions can not be changed. The article presents the practical application of the selected real option valuation for specific investment project.
5

Pomiar różnic indywidualnych w dyskontowaniu: Inwentarz dyskontowania

63%
Malesza M., Ostaszewski P.
Psychologia-Etologia-Genetyka
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2017
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vol. 35
69-86
PL
Celem projektu było skonstruowanie Inwentarza dyskontowania, który umożliwiałby pomiar różnic indywidualnych w zakresie nasilenia dyskontowania odroczonego, prawdopodobieństwa, wysiłku i społecznego. Pomiar nasilenia dyskontowania jest istotny, ponieważ wysokie nasilenie dyskontowania prowadzi do nieadaptacyjnej behawioralnej impulsywności. Wygenerowano ponad 400 pozycji obejmujących cztery rodzaje dyskontowania. Przeprowadzono badanie, w którym udział wzięły 2843 osoby. Następnie wykonano szereg analiz psychometrycznych. Eksploracyjna analiza czynnikowa wykazała czteroczynnikową strukturę uzyskanych danych, odpowiadających czterem rodzajom dyskontowania. Rezultaty konfirmacyjnej analizy czynnikowej wskazują na dobre dopasowanie do danych struktury czteroczynnikowej. Ostateczna, 48-elementowa wersja narzędzia ma zadowalające właściwości psychometryczne, w tym zgodność wewnętrzną i stabilność bezwzględną mierzoną metodą test–retest. Zakończona sukcesem konstrukcja narzędzia wspiera założenie, że dyskontowanie może być traktowane jako cecha osobowości.
EN
The aim of the paper is to present the process of construction and psychometric properties of the Discounting Inventory that would allow the assessment of individual differences in delay, probabilistic, effort, and social discounting rates. The assessment of the rate of discounting is important, because high rates of discounting lead to disadaptive behavioral impulsivity. At the beginning, over 400 items covering four types of discounting were generated. The psychometric study (N = 2843) and factor analysis of data allowed to distinguish four traits. Confirmatory Factor Analysis was used to confirm the factor structure of the data from the Exploratory Factor Analysis. It was shown, that the four-factor structure had the best fit to the data. The final 48-item version of the inventory has satisfactory psychometric characteristics, including Cronbach’s alpha and test-retest stability. The successful construction of a universal Discounting Inventory supports the hypothesis that the discounting rate can be regarded as an individual personality trait.
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