Search results

1

Econometric research of interdependence of major macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Poland and indicators of the country’s households

100%

Zhuk M.

Studenckie Prace Prawnicze, Administratywistyczne i Ekonomiczne

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2012

|

issue 12

13-23

EN

The economic system of the Republic of Poland was studied with the use of econometric modeling. Simultaneous equation system model that describes interdependence of major macroeconomic indicators of Poland and its household’s indicators was built. Several imitational experiments were made with the model to show the government’s economic policy influence on the country’s economic system.

2

Zastosowanie modelu wzrostu gospodarczego do szacowania optymalnej nierówności płac

100%

Kumor P., Sztaudynger J. J.

Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

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2007

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vol. 214

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issue 3

49-65

EN

The authors have developed an econometric growth model to estimate an “optimal” diversification of wages. Pay disparities are optimal when they produce the highest rate of GDP growth. An optimal diversification of wages can be calculated by introducing a variable thanks to which the model will measure “parabolic” disparities. The authors advance a hypothesis that there is an optimal level for the diversification of wages. If pay disparities are smaller than optimal, the most creative, hard-working and efficient individuals are insufficiently rewarded and are not properly encouraged to take advantage of their capabilities in contributing to gross domestic product. If wage disparities are greater than optimal, employees with lower qualifications are underpaid. This can be accompanied by feelings of social injustice and a sense of exploitation and impoverishment. This harms interpersonal ties and the relationship between employees and employers, in addition to limiting people’s confidence and reducing social capital. In such a situation, low-paid employees have little incentive to work. They only have enough motivation to satisfy their minimum biological needs and stay above the poverty line. Underpaid employees display insufficient creativity and dedication. The empirical analysis conducted by the authors for the Polish economy applies to the 1986-2004 period. The analysis shows that pay disparities are higher than optimal and have grown steadily since 1999. A statistically significant slowdown in productivity caused by an excessive diversification of wages occurred in 2003 and 2004. At the time, productivity dropped by around 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.

3

Bayesian combined forecasts and Monte Carlo simulations to improve inflation rate predictions in Romania

100%

Simionescu M.

Research Papers in Economics and Finance

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2020

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vol. 4

|

issue 1

7-20

EN

In this paper we applied the regression approach and Bayesian inference to obtain more accurate forecasts of the inflation rate in the case of the Romanian economy. The necessity of using the most accurate forecasts for the inflation rate is required by the realisation of economic criteria for the accession to the eurozone and by the inflation targeting strategy of the National Bank of Romania. Considering the assumption that simple econometric models provide better forecasts than complex models, in this paper we combined various forecasts from individual models using as prior information the expectations of experts. The empirical findings for Romanian inflation rate forecasts over the horizon of 2016-2018 indicated that a fixed effects model performed better than other simple models (autoregressive moving average model, dynamic model, simple and multiple linear model, VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model). The Bayesian combined forecasts that used experts’ predictions as priors, with a shrinkage parameter tending to infinity, improved the accuracy of all predictions using individual models, outperforming also naïve forecasts and zero and equal weights forecasts. However, predictions based on Monte Carlo simulation outperformed all the scenarios in terms of the mean error and mean absolute error.

4

An Attempt to Evaluate the Economy of Upper Silesia by Ownership Sectors Based on the Econometric Model and the Final Equation

100%

Biolik J.

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

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2012

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vol. 10

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issue 2

81-91

EN

The paper attempts to use the econometric model in the evaluation of trends in the economy of the Śląskie Voivodeship. The analysis is mainly based on the final equation of the model. The characteristic roots indicate that the economy of Upper Silesia does not have a cyclical nature (the lack of complex roots) and the private enterprise sector is characterised with higher efficiency than the public enterprise sector, since the curve for endogenous variable yt is converging with the asymptote y = 0 more quickly in the case of public enterprises than in the case of private enterprise sector.

5

WPŁYW NIEFINANSOWYCH ZASOBÓW OPIEKI ZDROWOTNEJ NA WYBRANE WSKAŹNIKI ZDROWIA W POLSCE W LATACH 2006-2012

100%

Reich M.

Przestrzeń, Ekonomia, Społeczeństwo

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2013

|

issue 4/II

113-130

PL

Celem niniejszego opracowania było zweryfikowanie wpływu niefinansowych zasobów opieki zdrowotnej – liczby łóżek, lekarzy oraz pielęgniarek – na wybrane wskaźniki zdrowia, tj. oczekiwaną długość życia w momencie narodzin oraz współczynnik śmiertelności niemowląt. W pierwszej części referatu skupiono się na przedstawieniu zagadnień teoretycznych związanych z efektywnością w opiece zdrowotnej, co miało na celu wskazanie podstawowych niefinansowych determinant opieki zdrowotnej. Drugą część opracowania stanowiła analiza statystyczna wybranych nakładów i rezultatów opieki zdrowotnej. Z przedstawionych danych wynika, iż zarówno wskaźniki zdrowia, reprezentujące rezultaty, jak i niefinansowe zasoby opieki zdrowotnej – będące nakładami – uległy poprawie w województwach polskich na przestrzeni 7 lat (od roku 2006 do 2012). Trzecią część referatu stanowiło modelowanie ekonometryczne, mające na celu zweryfikowanie statystycznej istotności zmiany niefinansowych zasobów opieki zdrowotnej na wybrane wskaźniki zdrowia. Zgodnie z otrzymanymi wynikami, spośród wybranych do badania zmiennych, jedynie liczba łóżek na 10 000 mieszkańców nie miała statystycznie istotnego wpływu na kształtowanie się wybranych wskaźników zdrowia.

EN

The aim of this study was to verify the impact of non-financial health care resources - the number of beds, doctors and nurses - to selected health indicators, such as life expectancy at birth and infant mortality. The first part of the paper focuses on the presentation of theoretical issues related to efficiency in health care, to identify the primary non-financial determinants of health care. The second part of the study was a statistical analysis of selected inputs and outcomes of health care. The presented data show that both health indicators representing the results, as well as nonfinancial health care resources (inputs) - have improved in Poland over seven years (from 2006 to 2012). The third part of the report was an econometric study to verify the statistical significance of changes in non-financial health care resources on selected health indicators. According to the results, only the number of beds per 10 000 inhabitants had no statistically significant effect on the selected health indicators.

6

Czy w Polsce rośnie akceptacja społeczna dla nierówności płac?

100%

Kumor P.

Annales. Etyka w Życiu Gospodarczym

|

2011

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vol. 14

|

issue 1

171-179

EN

In our studies we deal with estimating of the optimal ranges of earnings – the optimal of Gini indexes which are favourable to maximization of the GDP growth in Poland. We suspect that the optimal Gini coefficients expressing the acceptance of the whole of society for earnings inequalities can increase. In the article we formulated a hypothesis on the social habit to increasing disproportions of earnings. We verified the hypothesis on the basis of the model of the economic growth using data from 1970 to 2007. We carried out econometric studies in two stages. In the first stage we estimated the optimal Gini coefficients for short sub-periods being moved increasingly in time. In the second stage, we studied the character of changes of the optimal Gini coefficients. In the studies we proved the hypothesis on the habit of society to increasing disproportions of earnings. The optimal Gini coefficients increase along with the increase of differences in earnings and the increase of the economic level per capita. The growth of the optimal Gini coefficient may be slowed down.

7

Bayesian combined forecasts and Monte Carlo simulations to improve inflation rate predictions in Romania

100%

Simionescu M.

Research Papers in Economics and Finance

|

2020

|

vol. 4

|

issue 1

7-20

EN

In this paper we applied the regression approach and Bayesian inference to obtain more accurate forecasts of the inflation rate in the case of the Romanian economy. The necessity of using the most accurate forecasts for the inflation rate is required by the realisation of economic criteria for the accession to the eurozone and by the inflation targeting strategy of the National Bank of Romania. Considering the assumption that simple econometric models provide better forecasts than complex models, in this paper we combined various forecasts from individual models using as prior information the expectations of experts. The empirical findings for Romanian inflation rate forecasts over the horizon of 2016-2018 indicated that a fixed effects model performed better than other simple models (autoregressive moving average model, dynamic model, simple and multiple linear model, VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model). The Bayesian combined forecasts that used experts’ predictions as priors, with a shrinkage parameter tending to infinity, improved the accuracy of all predictions using individual models, outperforming also naïve forecasts and zero and equal weights forecasts. However, predictions based on Monte Carlo simulation outperformed all the scenarios in terms of the mean error and mean absolute error.

8

Taxonomic and Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Development in Poland – The Voivodship Approach

100%

Czech A., Lewczuk J.

Ekonomia i Zarzadzanie

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2016

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vol. 8

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issue 3

79-88

EN

Transport is considered one of the basic aspects of the movement of people, raw materials as well as goods from the place of origin to the destination. Moreover, in the wider sense, transport includes economic bodies that aim to achieve goals similar to those of businesses that produce a wide range of goods required by customers. Hence, the efficient operations of basic branches of the transportation system determine the entire national economy. Furthermore, transport is considered a basic factor of development, both on the macro- and microeconomic scales. The aim of the paper is to attempt the assessment of the road transport in Poland as an important element of macro logistics. Furthermore, one of the aims of the investigation was the explanation of its influence on the level of economic development in Poland. As the source of information, the research used the data drawn from the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The main methods implemented in this study were both classic and order synthetic measure construction. Further, these measures were used in econometric models as well as for the prediction of their values. The main result of the analysis indicates that the development level of the widely considered infrastructure is strictly correlated with the socio-economic development of particular voivodships. The study on the level of road transport development can lead to a better understanding of the socio-economic development of particular areas of Poland as well as the more efficient use of the support funds.

9

Is there a growing social acceptance of earnings inequalities in Poland?

88%

Kumor P.

Annales. Etyka w Życiu Gospodarczym

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2018

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vol. 21

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issue 8

79-88

EN

In our studies, we deal with the estimating of the optimal ranges of earnings – the optimal Gini indexes which are favourable to the maximisation of GDP growth in Poland. We suspect that the optimal Gini coefficients expressing the whole of society’s acceptance of earnings inequalities can increase. In the article, we formulated a hypothesis on society’s habituation to increasing earnings disparities. We verified the hypothesis on the basis of the model of economic growth using data from 1970 to 2007. We carried out econometric studies in two stages. In the first stage, we estimated the optimal Gini coefficients for short subsequent sub-periods. In the second stage, we studied the character of changes in the optimal Gini coefficients. In the studies, we proved the hypothesis on society’s habituation to increasing earnings disparities. The optimal Gini coefficients increase along with the increase of differences in earnings and the increase of the economic level per capita. The growth of the optimal Gini coefficients may be slowed down.

10

Residential electricity consumption in Poland

88%

ROPUSZYŃSKA-SURMA E., WĘGLARZ M.

Operations Research and Decisions

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2016

|

vol. 26

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issue 3

69-82

EN

Key factors influencing electricity consumption in the residential sector in Poland have been iden-tified. A fixed-effects model was used, which includes time effects, and a set of covariates, based on the model developed by Houthakker et al. This model estimates electricity demand by using lagged values of the dependent variable along with current and lagged values of electricity prices, and other variables that affect electricity demand such as: population, economic growth, income per capita, price of related goods, etc. The model has been identified according to the research results of the authors and those obtained by Bentzen and Engsted. The set of covariates was extended to the lagged electricity price given by a tariff (taken from two years previous to the time of interest) and heating degree days index, a very important factor in European Union countries, where the climate is temperate. The authors propose four models of residential electricity demand, for which a confidence interval of 95% has been assumed. Estimation was based on Polish quarterly data for the years 2003–2013.

11

75%

Florczak W.

Przegląd Statystyczny

|

2012

|

vol. 59

|

issue 4

455-486

PL

Artykuł poświęcony jest opisowi makroekonomicznego modelu WF-CRIME, objaśniającego funkcjonowanie polskiego systemu egzekucji prawa. Model składa się z czterech bloków równań: (1) bloku generującego podaż przestępczości według podziału rodzajowego (przestępstwa z użyciem przemocy, przestępstwa przeciwko mieniu, przestępstwa prowadzenia pojazdów w stanie nietrzeźwości oraz pozostałe rodzaje przestępstw), (2) bloku opisującego funkcjonowanie sekcji bezpieczeństwa publicznego (3) bloku objaśniającego aktywność sądownictwa oraz (4) bloku równań sekcji więziennictwa. Wszystkie ogniwa systemu egzekucji prawa analizowane są w ramach związków jednoczesnych. Decyzje podejmowane na określonym szczeblu systemu wpływają na pozostałe ogniwa, zaś zastosowana metodyka badań umożliwia kwantyfikację kluczowych działań z zakresu polityki karnej i penitencjarnej. Strategia modelowania oparta jest na podejściu od ogółu do szczegółu (general to specific), bez przyjmowania a priorycznych założeń dotyczących relatywnego znaczenia poszczególnych czynników. Specyfikacje równań modelu wyrastają z ustaleń teoretycznych i międzynarodowych badań empirycznych. Zaprezentowany model wnosi szereg nowych rozwiązań do dorobku w dziedzinie systemowego modelowania mechanizmów egzekucji prawa, a w szczególności umożliwia kwantyfikowalną odpowiedź na różnorodne pytania z zakresu polityki karnej.

EN

The article describes the macroeconomic model WF-CRIME of the Polish law enforcement system. The model consists of four blocks: (1) crime supply by genre (violent crime, property crime, drunk driving and the others), (2) the public safety, (3) the justice, and (4) the penitentiary system. All chains of the law enforcement system are analyzed in their simultaneity. Decisions taken at one stage of the law enforcement system induce reactions of the others, whereas the methodology of the research enables identification of key actions in the field of penal policies. The modeling rests upon general to specific strategy, without any a priori assumptions .regarding relative importance of individual determinants of crime. Equations’ specification benefit from theoretical postulates as well as from numerous empirical investigations. The system contributes in many aspects to the state of knowledge in the domain of macroeconomic empirical modeling of crime and law enforcement systems.

17

Subject: Econometric Analysis Of The “Family 500+” Program – A Study Of The Impact Of The Social Benefit On The Fertility Of Poles

75%

Ekert M.

Przedsiębiorstwo we współczesnej gospodarce - teoria i praktyka

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2022

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vol. 1

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issue 34

5-19

PL

Cel: Zagadnienia związane z dzietnością społeczeństwa polskiego są przedmiotem toczącej się debaty publicznej. Demografowie przewidują, że w ciągu kilkunastu lat liczba mieszkańców naszego kraju będzie dramatycznie spadała. Aby zapobiec katastrofie demograficznej, rząd Beaty Szydło wprowadził program „Rodzina 500+”, którego istotą miała być poprawa liczby urodzeń w Polsce. Od momentu jego wprowadzenia pojawiały się głosy, które popierały działania ówczesnego rządu, jak też krytyczne z uwagi na możliwość negatywnych efektów na gospodarkę kraju. Dotychczasowa debata oraz badania nie odpowiadały na pytanie, czy nowe świadczenie w wysokości 500 PLN rzeczywiście powoduje wzrost liczby urodzeń. Materiały i metody badawcze: W artykule przedstawiono dwa modele ekonometryczne, przedstawiające możliwe czynniki wpływające na wartość urodzeń żywych. Dane użyte do badania pochodzą z Głównego Urzędu Statystycznego oraz Europejskiego Urzędu Statystycznego, a ich analizę wykonano dla okresu między I kwartałem 2010 r. a II kwartałem 2020 r. Wyniki: Przeprowadzone badania wykazały, że program „Rodzina 500 +” nie ma istotnego wpływu na liczbę urodzeń żywych w Polsce. Wnioski praktyczne: Badanie w formie stworzenia modeli ekonometrycznych może znaleźć zastosowanie podczas reformowania polityki publicznej w zakresie demografii. Wnioski i podsumowanie: Dotychczasowa analiza programu „Rodzina 500+” wykazała, że rozwiązanie wprowadzone przez rząd Beaty Szydło nie ma istotnego wpływu na poprawę sytuacji demograficznej społeczeństwa polskiego. Artykuł jest również sugestią dla polityków i demografów do przeprowadzenia reformy w tym zakresie.

EN

Background and Objective: Currently the subject of public debate in Poland are potential demographic problems. Researchers predict, that the population of Poland will begin to decline. Due to demographic forecast, Polish government introduced “The Family 500+” Program, aimed at improving the number of live births From the moment of its introduction, there were voices supporting the actions of the then government, as well as critical due to the possibility of negative effects on the country’s economy. The debate and research conducted so far have not answered the question whether the new benefit of PLN 500 actually increases the number of live births.Study Design/Materials and Methods: The article presents two econometric models presenting possible factors influencing the value of live births. The data used for the study come from the Central Statistical Office and the European Statistical Office, and their analysis was performed for the period between Q1 2010 and Q2 2020. Results: The conducted research has shown that the “Family 500+” program has no significant impact on the number of live births in Poland.Practical implications: Research in the form of creating econometric models can be used in reforming public policy in the field of demography. Conclusion and summary: The analysis of the “Family 500+” program to date has shown that the solution introduced by Beata Szydło’s government has no significant impact on improving the demographic situation of Polish society. The article is also a suggestion for politicians and demographers to carry out a reform in this area.

18

Zajmująca ekonometria – dynamika myśli i dokonań

75%

Bazeli B.

Roczniki Ekonomiczne Kujawsko-Pomorskiej Szkoły Wyższej w Bydgoszczy

|

2014

|

issue 7

11-20

PL

W społeczeństwie i w gospodarce zachodzą ciągłe zmiany. Zmiany te powodują, że pojawiają się nowe, różne nurty naukowe, w tym ekonometryczne. Celem opracowania jest zwięzłe prześledzenie rozwoju badań ekonometrycznych, a szczególnie w zakresie dynamicznego modelowania ekonometrycznego oraz wskazanie najważniejszych kierunków badań oraz podejść do modelowania procesów ekonomicznych.

EN

In society and in the economy undergoing constant changes. These changes mean that there are new, different scientific areas, including econometrics. The aim of this paper is to trace the development of concise econometric studies, especially in the field of dynamic econometric modeling and an indication of the most important research directions and approaches to modeling of economic processes.

19

RELACJE MIĘDZY WYBRANYMI CZYNNIKAMI SPOŁECZNO-EKONOMICZNYMI A LICZBĄ SPÓŁDZIELNI SOCJALNYCH W PRZEKROJU REGIONALNYM

75%

Polcyn J., Zdzierela R.

Roczniki Ekonomiczne Kujawsko-Pomorskiej Szkoły Wyższej w Bydgoszczy

|

2016

|

issue 9

370-385

PL

Od ponad dekady rośnie w Polsce zainteresowanie spółdzielniami socjalnymi jako nowoczesnymi instrumentami polityki społecznej, przy czym dostrzegana jest ich nierównomierna liczebność w ujęciu regionalnym. W niniejszym artykule podjęto próbę stworzenia modelu ekonometrycznego opisującego zależność między wybranymi czynnikami o charakterze społeczno-ekonomicznym a liczbą spółdzielni socjalnych przypadających na 10 tys. podmiotów sektora prywatnego. Zastosowano w tym celu funkcję regresji. Szacowanie parametrów przeprowadzono stosując uogólnioną metodę najmniejszych kwadratów (UMNK). Badanie przeprowadzono dla najnowszych dostępnych danych, tj. za 2014 r., zagregowanych na poziomie 66 podregionów (NUTS-3). Wstępnie wyselekcjonowane zmienne objaśniające ograniczono do tych, które łącznie pozwalają na względnie duże dopasowanie modelu. Mimo to powstały w ten sposób model jedynie w 40 proc. wyjaśnia zmienność wariancji. W oparciu o ten model można wyciągnąć wniosek, że czynniki społeczno-gospodarcze mają niewielki wpływ na proces powstawania spółdzielni socjalnych.

EN

Social cooperatives have been a point of interest in Poland for more than a decade, however their uneven numbers by region is noticed. This paper shows the results of an attempt to create an econometric model describing the relationship between selected explanatory variables of social and economic aspect and the number of social cooperatives per 10 000 private sector entities as a dependent variable. A regression function was used for that purpose. Parameter estimation was performed using a generalized least-squares method. The study was conducted for the latest available data, ie. for 2014., aggregated on the level of 66 sub-regions (NUTS-3). Although, initially the explanatory variables were limited to those that enabled a large model fit, the final model is capable of explaining only in 40 percent the variability of variance. Basing on this model, it can be concluded that socio-economic factors have little effect on the process of formation of social cooperatives.

20

Ceny cukru w Polsce i ich determinanty

75%

Hamulczuk M., Szajner P.

Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej

|

2015

|

issue 4(345)

59-80

EN

The sugar market in the EU is among the most regulated food markets in the world. This regulation is based on production quotas and foreign trade regulations. Individual links of the marketing chain are characterised by highly varied degree of concentration. Growers of sugar beets and consumers are very numerous and possibly have the weakest bargaining power. The highest degree of concentration is in the sugar industry, which is a classic oligopoly, because four producers manufacture a homogenous product. Thus differentiated structure, faced with strong market protection, creates potential conditions for monopolistic practices and obtaining the so-called monolithic margins. Sugar production and prices in Poland and in the EU are largely conditioned by the system of market regulations. The conducted sugar market reform had little effect on the interrelation of the EU prices with the world prices in the analysed period. As a result of the reform, the relations of the Polish or EU prices to the world prices dropped (this coincided with the growth in the world sugar prices) and, at the same time, there is no growth in the long- or short-terms relations. In 2004, the selling prices of sugar in Poland are linked to the EU prices and their level is not highly divergent from the average prices in the Community. These relations weakened slightly along with the end of the reform and the nature of long-term relations changed. Stronger interrelations are between retail and wholesale prices.

Refine search results

Econometric research of interdependence of major macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Poland and indicators of the country’s households

Zastosowanie modelu wzrostu gospodarczego do szacowania optymalnej nierówności płac

Bayesian combined forecasts and Monte Carlo simulations to improve inflation rate predictions in Romania

An Attempt to Evaluate the Economy of Upper Silesia by Ownership Sectors Based on the Econometric Model and the Final Equation

WPŁYW NIEFINANSOWYCH ZASOBÓW OPIEKI ZDROWOTNEJ NA WYBRANE WSKAŹNIKI ZDROWIA W POLSCE W LATACH 2006-2012

Czy w Polsce rośnie akceptacja społeczna dla nierówności płac?

Bayesian combined forecasts and Monte Carlo simulations to improve inflation rate predictions in Romania

Taxonomic and Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Development in Poland – The Voivodship Approach

Is there a growing social acceptance of earnings inequalities in Poland?

Residential electricity consumption in Poland

Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Poland: Simulations with an Econometric Model

ROUNDWOOD PRODUCTION FORECASTING IN POLAND, ON THE BASIS OF THE DATA OF THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE IN THE YEARS 2000 - 2012

Family and economic growth in Poland. New estimation results

The impact of the banking sector on economic growth in Poland – an econometric analysis

Efektywna podaż pracy a wzrost gospodarczy

Makroekonomiczny model przestępczości i systemu egzekucji prawa dla Polski. Specyfikacje równań stochastycznych i rezultaty szacowania parametrów strukturalnych

Subject: Econometric Analysis Of The “Family 500+” Program – A Study Of The Impact Of The Social Benefit On The Fertility Of Poles

Zajmująca ekonometria – dynamika myśli i dokonań

RELACJE MIĘDZY WYBRANYMI CZYNNIKAMI SPOŁECZNO-EKONOMICZNYMI A LICZBĄ SPÓŁDZIELNI SOCJALNYCH W PRZEKROJU REGIONALNYM

Ceny cukru w Polsce i ich determinanty