Search results - CEJSH

1

Internal and External Aspect of Changes in Exchange Rate (Methodological and Theoretical Analysis)

100%

Dudziński J.

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

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2007

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vol. 6

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issue 1

27-35

EN

In the paper the phenomena related to the tendencies in the exchange rate have been analysed basing on a new methodological approach to the category of foreign trade. The approach includes the so-called internal and external aspect of foreign trade. The approach proposed in the paper proves to be very helpful in the analysis of the phenomena in today's economy.

2

Behavior of the Central Europe exchange rates to the Euro and US dollar

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Waściński T., Przekota G., Sobczak L.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

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2011

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vol. 12

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issue 1

165-176

EN

Our objective has been to measure an impact of the two main global currencies - Euro and USD on shaping of exchange rates in countries of Central Europe. We have also endeavored to measure whether and to what extent a different approach to the Euro introduction as well as differentiated macroeconomic situation of these countries influenced the behavior of their exchange rates. The hitherto analyses indicate that the PLN rate of exchange was until 2004 strongly tied to the USD, but since 2004 links with the EUR exchange rate have become stronger. However the exchange rates of other countries in the region had been tied to the EUR earlier than the PLN exchange rate as they already had strong such links in the whole period of our analysis. Currency integration of the Central European countries is very strong although they are formally outside the euro zone and formation of their exchange rates should be perceived through trends of the EUR exchange rate versus other currencies, the USD.

3

A firm’s perspective on econophysics-based currency risk analysis

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Fiedor P., Hołda A.

Nauki o Finansach

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2014

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issue 4(21)

92-107

EN

In this article the authors presents an approach to quantifying currency risk based on the methodology of econophysics. This article continues the authors’ study into the currency risk, this time simplifying it for the purpose of rendering it useful for companies without technical abilities. A method of analysing the dependencies between currencies based on correlations is introduced to facilitate the analysis of currency risk involved in being exposed to one or more foreign currencies. Also a model estimating a risk-free horizon is introduced and tested against price formation models and empirical data from FX markets.

4

Globalny kryzys finansowy a koszty utraty autonomii monetarnej w wybranych krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

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Borowski J., Jaworski K.

Ekonomista

|

2015

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issue 3

319-334

PL

Wyniki modelowania ekonometrycznego wskazują, że w ostatnich latach nastąpiło zmniejszenie wrażliwości kursów walut państw EŚW-4 (Czech, Polski, Rumunii i Węgier) na kształtowanie się krajowych cykli koniunkturalnych na rzecz relatywnego zwiększenia wpływu czynników globalnych. Wskazuje to, że koszt utraty krajowej polityki pieniężnej po ewentualnym przystąpieniu tych państw do strefy euro może być mniejszy, niż oceniano przed globalnym kryzysem finansowym. Wniosek ten powinien być uwzględniony w badaniach poświęconych szacowaniu korzyści netto z integracji monetarnej krajów EŚW-4 ze strefą euro.

EN

The results of econometric estimation indicate that in the last few years the sensitivity of the exchange rates of the CEE-4 countries (Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Hungary) to domestic business cycles decreased towards a relatively high influence of the global factors. It indicates that the cost of losing the monetary autonomy after the euro adoption in those countries may be lower than it had been assessed before the global financial crisis. Such conclusion should be considered in the further research on the net benefits of monetary integration between the CEE-4 countries and the Eurozone.

RU

Результаты эконометрического моделирования указывают, что в последние годы произошло уменьшение чувствительности курсов валют государств Центральной и Восточной Европы ЦВЕ-4 (Чехии, Польши, Румынии и Венгрии) к отечественным конъюнктурным циклам в пользу относительного увеличения влияния глобальных факторов. Это указывает на то, что издержки от утраты суверенной национальной денежной политики после возможного вступления этих государств в зону евро могут оказаться меньше, чем это оценивалось до глобального финансового кризиса. Этот результат должен быть учтен в исследованиях, посвященных оценке чистой выгоды от монетарной интеграции стран Центральной и Восточной Европы (ЦВЕ-4) с зоной евро.

5

An Overview to the Exchange Rate Stability as A Criterion of the Accession to the Euro Zone

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Michalczyk W.

Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

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2012

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vol. 10

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issue 1

120-130

EN

The paper's objective is to present the results of an analysis of the exchange rate convergence criterion fulfilment by the European Union member states which still use their national currencies and the indication of the fundamental determinants that affect their ability to meet it. There is essential legislation on this criterion indicated, as well as on the ERM2 system which is directly related to it, and the stability of the currencies of EU countries is also briefly examined. The major conclusions include the statement that the interpretation of legal provisions on the exchange rate convergence crite rion allows large subjectivity in assessing its fulfilment by each country. On the other hand, significant fluctuations in exchange rates during recent years, can impede considerably their stabilisation prior to the accession to the euro area and extend the necessary stay in ERM2 system, which in turn will in crease the risk of speculation connected with it. Therefore, justified to a certain extent may seem pro posed abolition of the obligation to formal accession to ERM2 and replacing it with a quantitative criterion related solely to exchange rate fluctuations.

6

Polityka pieniężna i walutowa w krajach Ameryki Południowej

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Walerysiak G.

Ekonomista

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2015

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issue 6

779-803

PL

Artykuł zawiera obszerne omówienie, klasyfikację i porównawczą ocenę polityki pieniężnej i walutowej stosowanej przez poszczególne kraje Ameryki Południowej oraz jej stosunku do modelowej polityki rekomendowanej przez międzynarodowe organizacje finansowe i opartej na tradycyjnej teorii ekonomii, ukierunkowanej na osiągnięcie przyjętego celu infl acyjnego, przy zmiennym kursie walutowym i swobodnym przepływie kapitałów. Autor pokazuje, że konkretne standardy monetarne i walutowe stosowane w poszczególnych krajach Ameryki Południowej są bardzo zróżnicowane i zmieniają się wraz z upływem czasu, ale instrumenty i rozwiązania stosowane w tym zakresie wykraczają daleko poza wąsko pojętą strategię celu inflacyjnego, płynnego kursu walutowego i swobodnego przepływu kapitałów. Niektóre odchylenia od tradycyjnego modelu polityki pieniężnej i walutowej były związane z wpływem globalnego kryzysu finansowego, ale najważniejszym czynnikiem leżącym u podstaw niekonwencjonalnych rozwiązań jest dążenie do podtrzymania i przyspieszenia wzrostu krajowej gospodarki i podniesienia poziomu dobrobytu społecznego. Artykuł jest głosem w dyskusji nad stosowalnością różnych systemów monetarnych i standardów walutowych w szczególnej sytuacji krajów rozwijających się.

EN

The article contains a comprehensive review, classifi cation, and comparative assessment of monetary and exchange rate policies performed in South American countries and their relationship to the model policy recommended by international fi nancial organizations and based on the traditional economic theory, aimed at the realization of the adopted infl ationary target, with a floating exchange rate and free capital movements. The author shows that the concrete monetary and exchange rate standards applied in the individual countries of South America differ widely and change over time, but the instruments and solutions used in the framework of monetary and exchange rate policy go far beyond the narrowly conceived inflationary targeting, floating exchange rate and free capital flows. Some deviations from the traditional model of monetary policy were caused by the impact of global financial crisis, but the most significant factor behind the non-conventionality is the desire to stimulate growth of the domestic economy and to raise the level of social well-being. The paper is a voice in the debate about the applicability of various monetary systems and exchange rate standards in the peculiar situation of developing countries.

RU

В статье содержится обширное обсуждение, классификация и сравнительная оценка денежной и валютной политики отдельных стран Южной Америки. Анализируется соответствие этой политики той модельной политике, которую рекомендуют международные финансовые организации и опирающуюся на традиционную теорию экономики, где главной целью является достижение принятой инфляционной цели при меняющемся валютном курсе и свободном передвижении капитала. Автор указывает, что конкретные монетарные и валютные стандарты, действующие в отдельных странах Южной Америки, очень разнообразны и меняются с течением времени. Инструменты и решения, применяемые в этой области, выходят далеко за рамки узко понимаемой стратегии инфляционной цели, плавающего валютного курса и свободного передвижения капитала. Некоторые отклонения от традиционной модели денежной и валютной политики были связаны с влиянием глобального финансового кризиса, но самим важным фактором, лежащим в основе неординарных решений, является стремление к поддержанию и ускорению роста отечественной экономики и повышению уровня благосостояния общества. Статья является голосом в дискуссии о возможности применения различных монетарных систем и валютных стандартов в зависимости от особенностей ситуации в отдельных развивающихся странах.

7

THE APPLICATION OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN TESTING UNCOVERED INTEREST RATE PARITY

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Kisielińska J., Czech K.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

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2013

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vol. 14

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issue 1

232-242

EN

The aim of the paper is to evaluate and compare two linear regression models proposed by Froot and Frankel (1989) and to show their application in verification of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) hypothesis in the selected ten exchange rate markets. The paper shows that both models proposed by Froot and Frankel (1989) are formally equivalent, but they may give different regression results. Many researchers claim that uncovered interest rate parity tends to hold more frequently in emerging markets than in developed economies. The paper is focused on five developed and five emerging economies. It is partly confirmed that developing countries work better in terms of UIP.

8

The Russian Central Bank as a Monetary Targeter? An Empirical Analysis

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Merkl C., Vinhas de Souza L., Kiel University I. f. W. E. I., Kiel Institute for World Economics

Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica

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2005

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vol. 192

PL

W artykule dokonaliśmy przeglądu zasad polityki monetarnej prowadzonej przez bank centralny Rosji. Stosując różne podejścia do tych zasad, testujemy czy bank centralny Rosji reaguje na zmiany inflacji, luki produkcyjnej oraz kursu walutowego w przewidywalny sposób. Nasze badania prowadzą do wniosku, że w latach 1993-2002 bank centralny Rosji przyjmował za kryterium agregat pieniężny jako główny instrument prowadzonej polityki monetarnej.

EN

The paper reviews the recent conduct of monetary policy and the central bank’s rule-based behavior in Russia. Using different policy rules, we test whether the central bank in Russia reacts to changes in inflation, output gap and the exchange rate in a consistent and predictable manner. Our results indicate that during the period of 1993-2002 the Bank of Russia has used monetary aggregates as a main policy instrument in conducting monetary policy.

9

Zasady przeliczania nakładów finansowych poniesionych w latach 1945–2010 przez Muzeum Pałacu w Wilanowie i jego poprzednika prawnego

100%

Kłusek M.

Annales. Etyka w Życiu Gospodarczym

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2014

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vol. 17

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issue 2

97-111

EN

Between 1945 and 2010 the Palace Museum in Wilanów and its legal predecessor incurred particular financial costs which could be expressed in money (in circula-tion), in nominal values. The aim of this article is to express the costs according to unchanged price measures: the American dollar, gold and rye. The conducted research shows that the overall costs borne by The Palace Museum in Wilanów between 1945 and 2010 were 297 mln zł (Polish currency), after counting which included money exchange and denomination, or $124 mln (in USD). According to the average exchange rate in 2010, it gives the sum of 375 mln zł ($1 equals 3,02 zł). The costs measured in rye equalled 10.5 mln q (average price of rye in 2010 was 1 q = 42,12 zł). In the end, it gives the sum of 442 mln zł. As to world gold prices, the costs were 542,000 ounces of pure gold (in 2010 1 ounce of gold costs $1421,6). It gives $771 mln according to the average exchange rate in 2010 and 2329 mln zł ($1 = 3,02 zł). It can be a matter of discussion which one of these three measures shows the real value of the costs incurred since 1945. Fortunately, there is no question that a counting method which takes into consideration exchanged money and denomination ought not to be used in measuring nominal values.

10

Commodity price volatility, output growth and exchange rate dynamics in the Central and Eastern European countries

100%

Żyra A., Shevchuk S.

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

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2018

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issue 509

509-520

EN

This paper investigates the commodity price effects upon GDP growth and nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) dynamics in several Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania). Our main finding is that an increase in the world commodity price index is a factor behind a uniform exchange rate appreciation across all countries, with an acceleration in output growth in the Czech Republic and Hungary. Except for the Czech Republic, higher commodity price volatility is associated with exchange rate depreciation, while being neutral with respect to output growth. Among some other results, exchange rate dynamics seems to be independent of output growth in three out of four countries, while the effects of a foreign demand shock as proxied by Germany’s industrial production are quite homogeneous across nations.

11

US–Chinese Core Economic Relations in the Light of the Current Crisis

100%

Choroś-Mrozowska D.

Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia

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2011

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issue 7

25-38

EN

US‒China relations have followed an irregular course with improvements overshadowed by various problems and reverses. Chinese economic and trade reforms began in 1979 and have helped to transform the PRC into the one of the world’s fastest growing economies. China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the end of 2001 required it to open up its economy to foreign trade and investment by dismantling a large number of trade barriers and liberalising further its foreign investment regime. Beyond removing trade barriers, economic growth in the PRC has since resulted in significant new opportunities in US‒Chinese economic relations. Unfortunately, economic relations between these two countries have been marked by a number of issues, including a large US trade deficit with the PRC, China’s refusal to float its currency and failure to fully implement many of its WTO obligations. In addition, there has been growing concerns in the US over the huge foreign exchange reserves (FER) China has amassed.

12

The Prediction of the USD/EUR Spot Exchange Rate on the Basis of the Forward Exchange Rates

100%

Gottwald R.

Ekonomista

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2015

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issue 4

531-543

PL

Celem artykułu jest ocena możliwości prognozowania rzeczywistych kursów walutowych na podstawie ich notowań w transakcjach terminowych. Analiza dotyczy prognozowania kursu rynkowego USD/EUR na podstawie notowań w transakcjach terminowych w okresie od 2005 r. do 2013 r. Relacja między dziennym kursem zamknięcia i kursem notowanym w transakcjach terminowych 3- i 6-miesięcznych została zilustrowana graficznie i przeanalizowana za pomocą regresji. Autor bada stacjonarnośc szeregu czasowego i dokonuje jego detrendyzacji dla zapewnienia stacjonarności oraz przekształca równanie do formy nieliniowej w celu usunięcia silnej autokorelacji reszt. Prognozy kursu są wykonywane na modelu zdetrendyzowanym. Wyniki analizy pokazują, że bieżące notowania kursu w transakcjach terminowych nie są dostatecznie wiarygodnymi wskaźnikami przyszłego kształtowania się kursu rynkowego. Informacja ta jest ważna dla analityków fi nansowych prognozujących kursy walutowe na użytek instytucji fi nansowych i przedsiębiorstw uczestniczących w obrocie międzynarodowym oraz dla graczy spekulujących na rynkach walutowych.

EN

The aim of the paper is to assess the extent to which the future spot exchange rates can be predicted on the basis of the present forward exchange rates. The analysis refers to the prediction of the spot exchange rate USD/EUR on the basis of the forward exchange rates over the period from 2005 to 2013. Both graphical and regression analyses are used to examine the relationship between daily closing spot and forward rates, specifi cally 3-month rates and 6-month rates. The regression equation is estimated by the ordinary least squares method, and the hypotheses related to the parameters are tested at the 5% signifi cance level. The author examines whether the time series is stationary. Subsequently, the time series is detrended in order to guarantee stationarity. The transformation into non-linear econometric model is used in order to eliminate high positive autocorrelation in the residuals of the model. Then the predictions of the detrended model are made. The results of the analysis show that the present forward exchange rates are not sufficiently reliable predictors of the future spot exchange rates. These fi ndings are important for financial analysts working in fi nancial companies or enterprises participating in international turnovers, as well as for speculators acting in the foreign exchange markets.

RU

Целью статьи является оценка возможности прогнозирования реальных валютных курсов на основании их котировок по срочным сделкам. Анализ касается прогнозирования рыночного курса USD/EUR на основании его котировок по срочным сделкам за период с 2005 по 2013 год. Соотношение между дневным курсом закрытия и курсом, обозначенным в 2-х и 6-ти месячных сделках, было представлено графически и проанализировано с помощью регрессии. Автор исследует стационарность временного ряда и делает его бестрендовым с целью обеспечения стационарности, а также преобразовывает уравнение в нелинейную форму в целях устранения сильной автокорректировки остатков. Прогнозы курса делаются на бестрендовой модели. Результаты анализа показывают, что текущие котировки курса в срочных сделках не являются достаточно достоверными показателями будущего формирования рыночного курса. Эта информация важна для финансовых аналитиков, прогнозирующих валютные курсы по заказу финансовых институтов и предприятий, участвующих в международном обороте, а также для игроков, занимающихся спекуляцией на валютных рынках.

13

Relationships between exchange rates, economic growth and FDI in China: An empirical study based on the TVP-VAR model

100%

Shu-ping W., Xiao-meng W.

Littera Scripta

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2017

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vol. 1

166-179

EN

This paper investigates the relationships between exchange rates, economic growth and foreign direct investment through a time-variant parameter VAR model using monthly data from China for the period 2001-2016. The focus is on the reaction of economic growth to a shock change in exchange rates or foreign direct investment. The dynamic impulse response function showed that the relationships do not instigate great change. A positive shock in the real exchange rate slows down FDI inflows, with no evidence to support the contractionary devaluation theory in China, which suggests that an increase in the real RMB exchange rate generally causes a negative influence on China’s economic growth. The empirical results of this research contradict what intuition suggests and indicates that FDI has generated an ambiguous effect on economic growth in the past few years. Before 2008, shock changes in FDI would cause economic growth to lag for one period. Since then, the lag phenomenon has disappeared due to better regulation and a maturing financial market.

14

Stabilizacja kursów walutowych w obliczu kryzysu finansowego – próba oceny

100%

Pera J.

Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

|

2013

|

issue 907

91-107

EN

The recent volatility of exchange rates of practically all currencies exerts a direct influence on import/export prices, interest rate levels, state budget revenues and profits. This has had a destabilising effect on national economies and consequently triggered a financial crisis, i.e. the situation that we are currently in. One important factor is the apparent dependence of financial markets on the monetary and exchange rate policies pursued by the financial institutions of key-currency countries. These institutions, accordingly, have a great deal of responsibility for stabilising key financial markets and collaboration between the main institutions of the Triad, i.e. the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. In the absence of coherent, unified and widespread stabilisation mechanisms at the level of national economies and in the face of speculative behaviour by private and institutional investors, plus speculative strategies being commonly adopted by businesses, international financial markets remain highly turbulent and companies have to cope with a rising expense bill.

15

DETERMINANTS OF THE DEMAND FOR INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IN UKRAINE

100%

Shevchuk V.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

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2015

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vol. 16

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issue 2

102-112

EN

This study investigates the demand for international reserves in Ukraine and its structural change in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis in the context of a univariate error correction model (ECM). We find a time-invariant demand for international reserves in the short-run, with the inverse relationship with the volatility of international transactions, exchange rate depreciation and the excessive money stock and the positive link to imports and crisis developments. However, the long-term relationships are not stable over time, except for the effects of the money disequilibrium and crisis disturbances. The exchange rate depreciation and electoral cycle contribute to a depletion of reserves during the post-crisis period only. The adjustment of actual reserves to their long-run relationships is quite rapid.

16

Monetary Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern European Countries

89%

Shevchuk V.

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

|

2022

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vol. 66

|

issue 4

132-146

PL

Przeprowadzone badanie ma na celu oszacowanie empiryczne czynników monetarnych dla cen nieruchomości w Republice Czeskiej, na Węgrzech, w Polsce i w Rumunii. Wykorzystując kwartalne dane panelowe z lat 2010-2019, stwierdzono, że wzrost stopy procentowej banku centralne- go powoduje spadek cen nieruchomości, przy podobnym oddzialywaniu inflacji konsumenckiej i nie- doszacowanego kursu walutowego w ujęciu nominalnym i realnym. Ceny nieruchomości nie zależą od cyklu koniunkturalnego, ale boom na rynku nieruchomości pozytywnie oddziałuje na cykliczne zmiany dochodu, nie mając jednocześnie wpływu na ceny konsumenckie i kurs walutowy.

EN

This research aimed at the empirical estimation of the monetary determinants of house prices in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. The application of quarterly panel data for the period 2010-2019 indicates that a central bank policy rate increase was responsible for the fall in house prices, with a similar effect on house prices by a higher consumer inflation and nominal (real) exchange rate undervaluation. There was no reaction of house prices to the business cycle. However, the housing boom had a positive contribution to cyclical changes in output, while not affecting consumer prices and exchange rate.

17

Wpływ kursu walutowego na wielkość eksportu towarów z Polski do Niemiec w latach 1995–2013

88%

Gasztoł M., Śliwka P.

Ekonomista

|

2017

|

issue 4

415-433

PL

Artykuł przedstawia wyniki analizy wpływu kursu walutowego na eksport towarów z Polski do Niemiec w latach 1995–2013. Analiza została wykonana na danych kwartalnych za pomocą modelu wektorowej autoregresji (VAR). Model ten pozwala z większą dokładnością oszacować siłę oddziaływania kursu walutowego na tle innych zmiennych wpływających na eksport (w tym badaniu poza kursem walutowym uwzględniono także wpływ zmian realnego PKB Polski i Niemiec oraz napływu bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych do Polski). Otrzymane wyniki wskazują, że oddziaływanie zmian kursu walutowego na polski eksport do Niemiec jest znaczące, ale jego siła zależy od uwzględnianej w badaniu perspektywy czasowej i długości opóźnień reakcji.

EN

The article presents the results of the analysis of the impact of the exchange rate on the volume of Polish commodity exports to Germany in the period 1995–2013. The analysis has been made on quarterly data with a VAR model. The regression equation explaining the dynamics of the export volume included, apart from the exchange rate of the Polish currency, the change in real GDP of Poland and Germany and the inflow of FDI as explanatory variables. The results indicate that the influence of changes in the exchange rate on the volume of Polish commodity exports to Germany is significant, but the strength of this impact depends on the period considered and time lags assumed in regression equations.

RU

В статье представлены результаты анализа влияния валютного курса на экспорт товаров из Польши в Германию в 1995–2013 гг. Анализ был выполнен на квартальных данных с помощью модели векторной авторегрессии (VAR). Эта модель позволяет с большей точностью оценить силу воздействия валютного курса на фоне других переменных, влияющих на экспорт (в этом исследовании, кроме валютного курса, учтено также вли- яние изменений реального ВВП Польши и Германии и приток прямых иностранных инвестиций в Польшу). Полученные результаты показывают, что воздействие изменений валютного курса на польский экспорт в Германию является значительным, но его сила зависит от учтенной в исследовании временной перспективы и продолжительности за- держки реакции.

18

Prediction of Exchange Rates With Autoregressive Model With Exponential Forgetting

88%

Kamil D., Jana K., Vojtěch S.

Littera Scripta

|

2008

|

vol. 2

1-9

EN

The paper deals with a first-order autoregression model with parameter estimation with exponential forgetting, known and well established in the mathematical system theory. However, the use of exponential forgetting in econometry is not a standard. Under the assumption of slow timevariability of model parameters and model stationarity, this estimation method could however lead to significant improvement of the prediction quality. In this paper, we describe the Bayesian approach to such a modelling and parameter estimation. The use of the method is demonstrated on a one-step-ahead prediction of the EUR-USD exchange rate.

19

Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

88%

Chukwuma Ogbonna B.

Academicus. International Scientific Journal

|

2016

|

issue 13

40-53

EN

This paper analyses the post SAP persistence of inflation in Nigeria for the period, 1960-2008 with exchange rate, money supply and trade balance as preferred influential variables. To investigate the effect of policy switch from the period of direct instrument to the period of deregulation occasioned by SAP of 1986, we proceed to bifurcate the sample period into two, comprising the period of direct instruments of monetary policy, 1960 – 1985 and the period of indirect instruments of monetary policy, 1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR) of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

20

The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?

88%

Kelm R.

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics

|

2010

|

issue 4

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