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Role of forecasting support in decision-making process. The case of debt to equity conversion

100%
Nita B., Oleksyk P.
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
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2017
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issue 474
185-194
XX
The articles addresses the usefulness of financial forecasting. Thus, the objective of the paper is to propose a forecasting approach that supports decision-making process in the context of debt to equity conversion. Methodology adopted in the paper involves an example case explaining the conversion of liabilities into equity. The considerations in the paper support the argument that the structured approach to financial forecasting is essential to understand the impact of debt to equity conversion on the future position of a company as reflected in its financial statement. The structure of the article is as follows. The first part of the paper focuses on the issues related to information support of decision-making process. The next section refers to financial forecasting in the context of debt analysis. In the last section we describe the use case, and the article concludes with a summary of work to date.
2
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Long-Term Financial Forecasting as a Part af Strategic Planning in Local Government Units

80%
Adamowicz M.
Olsztyn Economic Journal
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2018
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vol. 13
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issue 4
357-374
EN
The aim of this paper is to present, on the example of Karczew municipality, long term financial forecasting as a component of strategic planning and to evaluate it as a tool for managing the socio-economic development in a local self-government unit. The paper has two main parts. In the first part, a theoretical background for strategic and financial management and forecasting is presented and in the second part, a case study of financial forecasting for the Karczew munic¬ipality is described. The main conclusion of the paper is that financial forecasting and strategic planning are important tools for the management of the municipal units if these are linked within local present budgeting and are implemented in an integrated way. Analysis of the municipality of Karczew shows that the current integrated strategies create a useful foundation for the effective functioning of the municipal unit.
3
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Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Stock Prices

80%
Kozdraj T., University of Łódź C. o. S. M.
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2009
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vol. 225
EN
Artificial neural networks constitute one of the most developed conception of artificial intelligence. They are based on pragmatic mathematical theories adopted to tasks resolution. A wide range of their applications also includes financial investments issues. The reason for NN's popularity is mainly connected with their ability to solve complex or not well recognized computational tasks, efficiency in finding solutions as well as the possibility of learning based on patterns or without them. They find applications particularly in forecasting stock prices on financial markets. The paper presents the problem of using artificial neural networks to predict stock prices on the example of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It considers the general framework of neural networks, their potential and limitations as well as problems faced by researcher meets while using neural networks in prediction process.
PL
Sztuczne sieci neuronowe stanowią jedną z najbardziej rozwiniętych gałęzi sztucznej inteligencji. Oparte są na pragmatycznych koncepcjach matematycznych dostosowywanych do rozwiązywanego zadania. Szeroki obszar zastosowań tych struktur obejmuje również zagadnienia szeroko rozumianych inwestycji finansowych. Przyczyn popularności należy upatrywać głównie w możliwości rozwiązywania skomplikowanych lub niezbyt dobrze rozpoznanych problemów obliczeniowych, sprawności znajdowania rozwiązań oraz możliwości uczenia się na podstawie wzorców lub bez nich. W szczególności sztuczne sieci neuronowe znajdują swoje zastosowanie w problemach predykcji cen papierów wartościowych na rynkach finansowych. Artykuł przedstawia problematykę zastosowania sieci neuronowych do prognozowania cen akcji na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie. Ukazuje ogólną koncepcję sieci neuronowych, ich możliwości, ograniczenia oraz problemy, jakie stają przed badaczem w momencie ich wykorzystania w procesie prognozowania.
4
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Tendencje w zarządzaniu długiem samorządowym w Polsce na podstawie wieloletnich prognoz finansowych jednostek samorządu terytorialnego

71%
Wiśniewska D., Wiśniewski M.
Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny
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2014
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vol. 76
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issue 1
175-193
EN
The considerable growth of Polish local government debt observed recently has resulted in the increasing importance of debt management as part of the overall financial management in local government units. An essential tool in this process is the long-term financial forecast, mandatory since 2010. In 2013 local governments were also obliged to report, in a standardised form, their forecasts, and the first aggregated data have already been published by the Ministry of Finance. Thus, for the first time, trends in the local government debt management in Poland could be analysed. This paper examines the main features of this process as reflected in local governments’ financial plans. In particular, the size of the planned debt and its service has been analysed in absolute terms and in relation to the units’ income, followed by an analysis of debt repayment schedules and the cost of the debt.
PL
Znaczący w ostatnich latach wzrost zadłużenia polskich samorządów spowodował, że zarządzanie długiem stało się niezwykle istotnym elementem zarządzania finansami w jednostkach samorządu terytorialnego. Niezbędnym w tym procesie narzędziem jest obowiązkowa od 2010 r. wieloletnia prognoza finansowa. Począwszy od 2013 r., jednostki zobligowane zostały dodatkowo do raportowania w ujednoliconej formie swoich prognoz, które ostatecznie zostały zebrane i upublicznione w zbiorczym zestawieniu przez Ministerstwo Finansów. Dane te umożliwiły po raz pierwszy zbadanie tendencji w zarządzaniu długiem samorządowym w Polsce. W niniejszym artykule zbadano najważniejsze przejawy tego procesu, które zostały odzwierciedlone w planach finansowych jednostek. Przeanalizowano w szczególności wielkość planowanego zadłużenia oraz jego obsługę (w ujęciu bezwzględnym, jak i w relacji do dochodów jednostek), wskazano także na rozplanowanie spłaty długu w czasie oraz na wysokość jego kosztów.
5
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The modeling of earnings per share of Polish companies for the post-financial crisis period using random walk and ARIMA models

61%
Kuryłek W.
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
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2023
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issue 1(19)
26-43
EN
The proper forecasting of listed companies’ earnings is crucial for their appropriate pricing. This paper compares forecast errors of different univariate time-series models applied for the earnings per share (EPS) data for Polish companies from the period between the last financial crisis of 2008–2009 and the pandemic shock of 2020. The best model is the seasonal random walk (SRW) model across all quarters, which describes quite well the behavior of the Polish market compared to other analyzed models. Contrary to the findings regarding the US market, this time-series behavior is well described by the naive seasonal random walk model, whereas in the US the most adequate models are of a more sophisticated ARIMA type. Therefore, the paper demonstrates that conclusions drawn for the US might not hold for emerging economies because of the much simpler behavior of these markets that results in the absence of autoregressive and moving average parts.
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