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MODELE PROGNOZ EKONOMETRYCZNYCH

100%
Zmarzłowski K., Karwański M.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
|
2015
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vol. 16
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issue 4
280-289
PL
Krótko i średnioterminowe prognozy często oparte są na różnych modelach ekonometrycznych. Dla modeli stosowanych do pojedynczych spółek, mamy do dyspozycji szereg miar, pozwalających porównywać je od strony dokładności uzyskiwanych rezultatów. Sytuacja komplikuje się, gdy prognozy dotyczą grupy spółek bądź sektorów gospodarczych. W pracy autorzy proponują nowoczesne narzędzie graficzne oparte na krzywej REC (Regression Error Characteristic). Detaliczne wyniki stosowania tej metody oceny modeli zostaną zaprezentowane w zastosowaniu do polskich firm z sektora budowlanego, notowanych na giełdzie.
EN
The main task of the analyst is to select the optimal model. For models applied to individual companies, we have a series of measures allowing to compare them from as well as the accuracy and economic point of view. The situation becomes more sophisticated when the forecasts apply to a group of companies or economic sectors. The authors attempt to build a universal graphical tools based on the REC curve. Results of this method will be used to forecast models of selected sectors Polish companies listed on the stock exchange.
2

Investment Planning in the Context of Business Cycle Volatility

100%
Nazarova J.
Economics and Business
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2015
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vol. 27
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issue 1
53-57
EN
The presented research describes methods, used to evaluate and choose more efficient solutions, regarding participation in stock market activities. A newly developed forecasting model, based on classically applied and time-proven methodologies, was created. Its aim was to ease the decision-making in the related area as well as to rationalize the optimal investment portfolio structure determination process.
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