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EN
This paper presents the results of using proprietary simulation software for the analysis of the financial risk associated with long-term taking loans in domestic and foreign currency. The study was conducted for loans in PLN and CHF incurred in different periods characterized by a different situation on the financial markets (significantly different currency exchange rates or interest rates, another entry in the „economic cycle”). The theoretical part of the paper describes basic concepts in long-term loans, and also shows the major assumptions for analyzing financial risks arising from incurring long-term obligations in domestic or foreign currency. In the practical part the assumptions of simulation of volatility of future fixed repayment level for loans taken out in PLN or CHF between 2004 and 2008 were described. The results of simulation along with the calculation of the total amount paid in future periods for analyzed variants of credit were also presented.
PL
W artykule ukazano funkcjonujący w rzeczywistości rynkowej polski sektor gazowniczy, który w znacznej mierze uzależniony jest od importu surowca. Następnie przedstawiono postępujący od 2011 r. proces liberalizacji rynku, a także starania w kierunku dywersyfikacji dostaw gazu. Celem artykułu jest określenie ekspozycji na ryzyko walutowe polskiego sektora gazowniczego. Na podstawie danych dotyczących wielkości importu gazu do kraju oraz danych kursów walut, w których jest on kupowany, określono wartość narażoną na ryzyko owego sektora. W analizie szczególną uwagę zwrócono na zmienność walut, która ma bezpośredni wpływ na wielkość omawianego typu ryzyka. Ekspozycja na ryzyko walutowe polskiego sektora gazowniczego okazała się na tyle istotna by zarekomendować potrzebę wprowadzenia nowoczesnych instrumentów do strategii zarządzania ryzykiem walutowym w polskim gazownictwie.
EN
In the article shown operating on the market Polish gas sector, which largely depends on gas imports. Then presents the process of market liberalization that has occurred since 2011, as well as efforts to diversify gas supplies. The aim of this article is to determine the exposure to currency risk polish gas sector. On the basis of data on the volume of gas imports to the country and the data foreign exchange rates, in which it is purchased, specified value at risk of this sector. In the analysis, special attention was paid to the volatility of currencies, which has a direct impact on the size of this type of risk. Exposure to currency risk Polish gas sector proved to be significant enough to recommend to the need to introduce modern instruments for currency risk management strategy in the Polish gas industry.
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