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1

Vznik Úřadu práce ČR: Příklad skupinového myšlení?

100%

Hiekischová M.

Politologická revue (Czech Political Science Review)

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2017

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issue 1

33-61

XX

The article deals with the process of creation of the Labour Office of the Czech Republic. In 2011, the law 73/2011 Coll. established the Labour Office as a central institution providing both unemployment benefits and social security protection. This change has been highly controversial. The decision-making process, approval and implementation is often cited as a stereotypical policy fiasco. The article analyses the process of the adoption of the Labour Office law through the lens of groupthink theory. Using the process tracing method we examine different symptoms of groupthink theory, and discuss to what extent the “diagnostic evidence” supports this theory. We find that this process can indeed be fruitfully understood in terms of groupthink theory, since we find that the group that prepared the law was relatively closed and that dissenting viewpoints were suppressed. Nevertheless, we conclude that groupthink theory cannot fully explain the decision-making process.

2

A Bayesian model of group decision-making

88%

WIBIG T., KARBOWIAK M., JASZCZYK M.

Operations Research and Decisions

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2016

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vol. 26

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issue 1

95-110

EN

A change in the opinion of a group, treated as a network of communicating agents, caused by the accumulation of new information is expected to depend on communication within the group, coopera-tion and, possibly, a kind of conformity mechanism. We have developed a mathematical model of the creation of a group decision, including this effect. This is based on a Bayesian description of inference and can be used for both conscious and inattentive acts. This model can be used to study the effect of whether a leader exists or not and other group inhomogeneities, as well as establishing the (statistical) significance and quality of a group decision. The proposed evolution equations explain in a straightfor-ward, analytical way some general properties of the general phenomenon of conformity (groupthink). To illustrate this theoretical idea in practice, we created an information technology (IT) tool to study the effect of conformity in a small group. As an example, we present results of an experiment performed using a network of students’ tablets, which could not only measure group pressure, but also conduct and control collaborative thinking in the group.

3

Are Central Banks’ Research Teams Fragile Because of Groupthink in the Area of Monetary Policy? – Evidence on Inflation Targeting

63%

Rybacki J.

Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

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2020

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vol. 304

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issue 4

81-103

PL

W ubiegłych latach stosunkowo duża część banków centralnych miała problem z realizacją własnych celów inflacyjnych. Badanie ma na celu odpowiedzieć, czy przyczyną tego zjawiska jest niedoskonała organizacja prac działów badań ekonomicznych. Przedstawiony model wskazuje pozytywną, choć stosunkowo mało istotną statystycznie relację pomiędzy koncentracją idei poruszanych w badaniach a sumą odchyleń od celów inflacyjnych. Przedstawione zostały również nieregularności widoczne w danych. Amerykańska Rezerwa Federalna, Bundesbank czy Bank Anglii prowadzą mniej zdywersyfikowane badania niż EBC. Departamenty badań Banku Włoch oraz NBP są zdominowane przez prace wąskiej grupy badaczy. Z kolei Banki Francji i Kanady prowadzą najbardziej różnorodne badania.

EN

In the recent years, the a great vast majority of the world’s central banks have globally failed to realize meet their inflation targets. We attempt to answer a question of determine whether such this failure resulted from insufficient inadequate organization organisation of economic research in those institutions. Our study shows a positive, but statistically weak, relationship between these two issues aspects. However, the analysis finds also finds a few several adverse irregularities in how research is organised in major central banks’s. research organizations. The research of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bundesbank, and the Bank of England are is relatively less diversified compared tothan that of the European Central Bank. In the cases of Poland and Italy, central bank economic departments are dominated by groups of researchers focused on a narrow range of topics. On the other hand, the organization organisation of research departments in France and Canada supports a greater variety of topics and independence of researchers.

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1 Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

1 Operations Research and Decisions

1 Politologická revue (Czech Political Science Review)

1 Hiekischová M.

1 JASZCZYK M.

1 KARBOWIAK M.

1 Rybacki J.

1 WIBIG T.

1 2020

1 2017

1 2016

Vznik Úřadu práce ČR: Příklad skupinového myšlení?

A Bayesian model of group decision-making

Are Central Banks’ Research Teams Fragile Because of Groupthink in the Area of Monetary Policy? – Evidence on Inflation Targeting