The paper presents a procedure of application of regular hierarchical models in forecasting missing data in high-frequency time series with cyclical fluctuations. Annual, weekly and daily cycles of seasonal fluctuation have additive character. Separately regular hierarchical models have been built for even length cycles.Theoretical considerations are illustrated with an empirical example.
This paper reports a study addressing how teacher effectiveness influences student outcomes in Polish Lower Secondary schools. Data from a Polish nationwide lower secondary school study were analysed. Data included 3883 pupils in 246 classes, in 137 schools with 202 maths teachers and 4119 pupils in 260 classes, in 143 schools with 215 language teachers. Variance of exam scores explained by teacher effect was 12% (maths) and 8% (language skills). Controlling for prior achievement, intelligence and student family background, teacher effects were 5% (maths) and 4% (language skills). Until now there has been no consensus about which teacher characteristics could explain variance in their effectiveness. The scale of “teacher authority/classroom management” explains 91% of exam scores in maths and 81% in language skills, when controlling for prior student achievement, intelligence, student family background and school location.
Nauczyciele, różniąc się efektywnością pracy, wpływają na wyniki uczniów. Analizowano dane z ogólnopolskiego badania przeprowadzonego w gimnazjach w 2012 r. Analizy objęły 3883 uczniów z 246 oddziałów, z 137 szkół i 202 nauczycieli matematyki oraz 4119 uczniów z 260 oddziałów, z 143 szkół i 215 nauczycieli języka polskiego. Wariancja wyników egzaminów przypisana nauczycielom wyniosła 12% (matematyka) i 8% (kompetencje językowe). W modelu uwzględniającym m.in.: wcześniejsze osiągnięcia, inteligencję, zmienne statusowe rodziny ucznia, efekt nauczyciela wyjaśnił 5% (matematyka) i 4% (kompetencje językowe) wariancji wyników egzaminu. Do tej pory nie było jasne, za pomocą jakich cech nauczycieli i stylu nauczania można wyczerpująco wyjaśnić zróżnicowanie efektywności ich pracy. Skala „autorytet nauczyciela/utrzymanie dyscypliny” wyjaśniła 91% efektu nauczyciela w nauczaniu matematyki i 81% w nauczaniu języka polskiego, przy kontroli wcześniejszych osiągnięć edukacyjnych, inteligencji, zmiennych statusowych rodziny ucznia i lokalizacji gimnazjum.
EN
This paper reports a study addressing how teacher effectiveness influences student outcomes in Polish Lower Secondary schools. Data from a Polish nationwide lower secondary school study were analysed. Data included 3883 pupils in 246 classes, in 137 schools with 202 maths teachers and 4119 pupils in 260 classes, in 143 schools with 215 language teachers. Variance of exam scores explained by teacher effect was 12% (maths) and 8% (language skills). Controlling for prior achievement, intelligence and student family background, teacher effects were 5% (maths) and 4% (language skills). Until now there has been no consensus about which teacher characteristics could explain variance in their effectiveness. The scale of “teacher authority/classroom management” explains 91% of exam scores in maths and 81% in language skills, when controlling for prior student achievement, intelligence, student family background and school location.
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