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Techniki GIS – w poszukiwaniu hot spotów przestępczości

100%

Mordwa S.

Archiwum Kryminologii

2015

issue XXXVII

279-302

Since the accomplishments of the social ecology school, it is common knowledge thatthere is a thesis about the existence of a strong relationship between crime and space. Since the 1990s, the police has been equipped with various GIS techniques which allowthe discovery of spatial patterns in the distribution of crime. The techniques turned outto be very helpful for effectively combating crime and misdemeanours, since the policewere in a position to identify small individual spaces in towns that were characterisedwith high crime indicators. These places are usually referred to as crime hotspots. Thefactors leading to a concentration of crime in specified places includes: the presencewithin them of attractive crime targets or locations easing the carrying out of criminalacts. From this point of view, one can differentiate three types of hotspot: they aregenerators of criminal opportunities, generators of crime, and places facilitating crime.The basic question of the research is: in what manner, or using what tools, can oneeffectively and objectively identify hotspots in city spaces?The modern city is very socio-spatially diverse. The most important accomplishments in the theoretical problems on the functioning of areas of concentratedsocio-pathological phenomena include the theory of social disorganisation, the conceptof social areas in cities (E. Shewky, W. Bell, S. Williams), and the model of post-moderncity structure (M. Dear). Also repeatedly described in criminological literature are thetheory of “broken windows” (G. Kelling and J. Wilson), the pattern of crime (P. and P.Brantingham), and the perspective of routine activities (M. Felson, L. Cohen). Based on the research findings of Polish researchers, one can formulate severalregularities associated with the occurrence of social pathologies in Polish cities. Firstly,the deprivation areas of cities primarily include town centres and housing blocks, olderblock estates, suburban areas (placed along little-active streets of peripheral placementand along exit roads), and old factory estates. In addition, persistent problem areasin Polish city centres have been in place since the interwar period. So-called povertyenclaves are characterised by amortised living spaces, unemployment, reliance ofinhabitants on social benefits, and are escalated by pathological behaviours: crime, alcoholism, broken/incomplete families, domestic violence. Unusually interesting is thecycle of degradation in downtown areas, presenting the shared arrangement of a variety of unfavourable phenomena leading to spatial and social degradation in the centralspaces of Polish cities. The problems found during the spatial analysis of crime in various cities in Polandare quite broad. Other than the presented disproportion and spatial diversity of socialpathology, the areas most at risk have also been identified. The analysis of criminalhotspots using GIS techniques and tools was undertaken by S. Mordwa and N. Sypion Dutkowska. The region studied in search of hotspots in Łódź was the metropolitan area (Fig.1).The area makes up the city centre, which includes within its reach historical buildingsthat represent the city’s identity. The metropolitan area covers 14 km2 (4.8% of the city), which in 2010 had over 140,000 inhabitants (19.7%) and 2,291 incidents recorded bypolice. The quoted numbers indicate that there were 5.58 times more police incidentsin relation to the size of the area, and 1.36 extra events in relation to the number ofinhabitants.In the article, a review of GIS techniques is made, thanks to which one candifferentiate hotspots. An analysis is made of the garnered results of these spaces,and the advantages and disadvantages are emphasised of the following techniques:cartograms (Fig.3), thematic maps (Fig.3b), point maps (Fig.2), local and global Moran’sI (Fig.4), Getis-Ord Gi* (Fig.5), hierarchical grouping based on the nearest neighbourtechnique (Fig.7), nuclear density estimators (Fig.6), and the K-means method (Fig.8). After reviewing these techniques, a question is raised: which technique is the mosteffective in the study of determining crime hotspots? The PAI indicator is used to solvethis problem, as described by S. Chainey et al. The PAI indicator is constructed in sucha way that the counter finds a proportion of crimes which are localised to the areaof every hotspot. The denominator meanwhile is the proportion of area taken up byhotspots generally. Generally the most effective technique used will be determined bythe highest value of the counter against the lowest possible value of the denominator (remembering that the definition of a hotspot is a small segment of an area in whichmany crimes are registered). It turned out that the most accurate hotspots were obtainedby employing the hierarchical grouping method with the nearest neighbour techniqueand the nuclear density estimators (tab.1). Of all the places of concentrated crime identified in the metropolitan area (determined by the hierarchical nearest neighbour method), the hotspot with the mostincidents identified by police was in a central area called Plac Wolnosci (Liberty Square) (Fig.9). This area is dominated by buildings in the downtown style from the turn of the20th century. Three-storey rented townhouses dominate, which were very high qualitydwellings when they were built. But now they are characterised by a high degree oftechnical wear. The area is intensely built up, and the municipal council is the mainlandlord here. At the same time, it is evident there is a shortage of dwellings with centralheating, with most apartments having a low number of rooms but high population ofinhabitants. It is a substandard area with very low social status. The buildings here(mainly communal townhouses of low standard, known as so-called poor houses) form the worst living conditions in Łódź, while inhabitants mainly belong to the lowestsocial categories (poorly educated, unemployed, low paid). In accordance with otherstudies, the area is characterised by the weakness of the community, which indicatesa reduction or even complete loss of economic strength and social value in the residentsto participate in social life and the city’s economy. The community here is characterized by high rates of unemployment, clearly outlined poverty, and low education.The hotspot of Plac Wolnosci is approximately 14 hectares in size. In 2010,police in this area registered more than 100 incidents. Most often they were cases of pickpocketing (around 25% of all acts) which likely results from the significant volumeof traffic, the many transportation routes which pass through (tram and bus), as wellas the presence of many stops. Victims of theft and robbery (around 20% of the area’spolice incidents) were often regulars of Piotrkowski Street and the nearby Manufakturaarea, who had inadvertently entered the area (to make use of public transportation) from the well-monitored ones. Also common in the hotspot are property damage, burglary of commercial buildings, and car accessory theft. To summarise, the analysis in the article consists of: 1) the presented GIS techniqueswhich turned out to be useful and effective in various social studies of crime. Theirapplication enables the possibility of objectively identifying hotspots. The most effectivetechnique turned out to be hierarchical grouping based on the nearest neighbourtechnique; 2) in accordance with expectations, the most affected by crime turned outto be the very centre of Łódź. Based on the above study, one can conclude that analysis of areas has significancein social studies, since each location is characterised by differing urban environmentqualities, such as its socio-economic status, area history and collective memory,local identity, perception and symbols of the spaces, informal social controls, livingstandards, regulations linked with management, and more. Simply learning the spatialdistribution of hotspots cannot constitute the research aim. Utilising other methodsconcentrated on people and communities requires further investigation of the causesof the appearance of social problems and their relationship with spaces. Further studies could be concentrated on the main problem areas.

Punkty sprzedaży alkoholu jako miejsca koncentracji przestępczości w przestrzeni miasta

89%

Mordwa S.

Space – Society – Economy

2022

issue 33

127-148

Literature from within the geography of crime and environmental criminology has for decades presented evidence for the existence of certain patterns of distribution of places where crime is committed in the urban space, as well as for the fact that various ways of land utilisation influence the distribution of crime. Already in previous analyses of the spatial distribution of crime, attention had been directed towards their (the crimes’) relations with the localisation of the points of sale (POS) of alcohol, as well as the relationship between consuming such drinks and the inclination towards committing illegal acts and acts that contradict the social norms by people under the influence of hard liquors. Such relationships were already noticed two hundred years ago by A. Quetelet, and after him, of course, by the representatives of the Chicago School of Social Ecology. The objective of the presented research results is to draw attention to the role of the POS of alcohol in the spatial distribution of crimes in the area of the Old Bałuty estate in Łódź. The specific area of the district which has a ‘difficult’ past and is stereotypically perceived as strongly encumbered with crime among other things has been selected purposefully. In the future, it will be worth to confront these results with areas of the city that have a different history and social characteristics. This article answers the questions about the spatial structure of chargeable acts committed within the space of the said estate, as well as about the sphere of influence of the POS of alcohol on the intensification of particular categories of crime in the immediate neighbourhood. The article broadens the Polish literature on the subject of crime distribution within the space of estates, analysing the so far insufficiently described range of influence of the POS of alcohol. For defining the intensity of crimes and determining the zone of influence consisting in attracting some categories of crimes in the neighbourhood of the POS of alcohol, the LQC index was used. Information about the structure of registered crimes and their localisation was obtained from the Voivodeship Police Headquarters, while the database about the POS of alcohol was created based on the stock-taking of the estate’s terrain. The database initially used in the analysis included 739 identified crimes and 49 POS of alcohol. As a result of conducting these analyses, it was determined that there exists a strong negative influence of the POS of alcohol, which attract particular categories of crimes; it turned out that these are mainly criminal offences against property, against life and health, and against dignity and bodily inviolability. The zone of negative impact of the POS of alcohol in relation to the places where crimes were committed was limited – based on this research – to around 100 metres, while only sexual crimes are moved beyond the 100-metres-wide neighbourhood of the alcohol distribution. In comparison with the results from the works cited in this article, the zone of influence of the POS of alcohol is of a relatively small size. Also on the contrary; in comparison with what has been determined in world literature, it turned out that in the zone of the Old Bałuty, higher LQC values were calculated for the direct neighbourhood of supermarkets and convenient shops rather than for off-licences and bars. Recommendations and discussion resulting from these facts should influence the policy of crime prevention in terms of the localisation of objects, managing them, and the rules of maintaining the social and spatial order in their neighbourhood.

Literatura z zakresu geografii przestępczości i kryminologii środowiskowej od dziesięcioleci przedstawia dowody na to, że miejsca popełniania przestępstw są ulokowane w przestrzeni miasta zgodnie z pewnymi wzorcami, oraz na to, że różne sposoby użytkowania terenu wpływają na rozmieszczenie przestępczości. Już w najwcześniejszych analizach przestrzennego rozkładu przestępczości zwracano uwagę na jej związki z lokalizacją punktów sprzedaży alkoholu, jak również jego spożyciem i skłonnością osób będących pod jego wpływem do popełniania czynów niezgodnych z prawem i normami społecznymi. Związki takie zauważał już prawie 200 lat temu Adolphe Quetelet, a po nim oczywiście także przedstawiciele chicagowskiej szkoły ekologii społecznej. Celem prezentowanych wyników badań jest zwrócenie uwagi na rolę punktów sprzedaży alkoholu w przestrzennej dystrybucji przestępstw na obszarze osiedla Stare Bałuty w Łodzi. Do badań specjalnie wybrany został specyficzny obszar dzielnicy o „trudnej” przeszłości, stereotypowo postrzeganej jako silnie obciążona m.in. przestępczością. W przyszłości warto by skonfrontować uzyskane tutaj wyniki z obszarami miasta o innej historii i charakterystyce społecznej. W artykule udzielone zostaną odpowiedzi na pytania o strukturę przestrzenną czynów karalnych popełnionych na osiedlu oraz o strefę oddziaływania wspomnianych punktów sprzedaży na nasilenie poszczególnych kategorii przestępstw w ich bezpośrednim sąsiedztwie. Niniejszy artykuł rozszerza literaturę polską na temat dystrybucji przestępstw w przestrzeni osiedla, analizując niedostatecznie dotąd opisany zasięg oddziaływania punktów sprzedaży alkoholu. Do określenia natężenia przestępstw i wyznaczenia strefy oddziaływania polegającego na przyciąganiu niektórych kategorii przestępstw w okolice punktów sprzedaży alkoholu użyto indeksu lokalizacji przestępstw (LQC). Informacje o strukturze zarejestrowanych przestępstw i ich lokalizacji uzyskano z Komendy Wojewódzkiej Policji. Natomiast baza danych o punktach sprzedaży alkoholu powstała na podstawie inwentaryzacji terenu podmiotowego osiedla. Wstępnie wykorzystana w analizie baza danych objęła 739 przestępstw stwierdzonych i 49 punktów sprzedaży alkoholu. W wyniku przeprowadzonych analiz stwierdzono, że istnieje silne negatywne oddziaływanie punktów sprzedaży alkoholu, które przyciągają konkretne kategorie przestępstw – okazało się, że są to głównie przestępstwa kryminalne skierowane przeciwko mieniu, przeciwko życiu i zdrowiu oraz czci i nietykalności cielesnej. Strefa negatywnego oddziaływania punktów sprzedaży alkoholu została ograniczona na podstawie tych badań do ok. 100 metrów. Jedynie przestępstwa o charakterze seksualnym dokonywane są poza stumetrowym sąsiedztwem miejsc dystrybucji alkoholowej. W porównaniu z wynikami przywoływanych w tym artykule prac strefa oddziaływania punktów sprzedaży alkoholu ma stosunkowo niewielki rozmiar. Okazało się również, że wbrew ustaleniom wynikającym z literatury światowej w przestrzeni Starych Bałut wyższe wartości LQC obliczono dla bezpośredniego sąsiedztwa supermarketów i sklepów ogólnospożywczych niż dla sklepów monopolowych i barów. Zalecenia i dyskusja wynikające z tych ustaleń powinny mieć wpływ na politykę zapobiegania przestępczości w zakresie lokalizacji obiektów, zarządzania nimi i zasad utrzymania ładu społeczno-przestrzennego w ich sąsiedztwie.

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1 Archiwum Kryminologii

1 Space – Society – Economy

2 Mordwa S.

1 2022

1 2015

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Techniki GIS – w poszukiwaniu hot spotów przestępczości

Punkty sprzedaży alkoholu jako miejsca koncentracji przestępczości w przestrzeni miasta