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HOW THE CENTRAL BANK MAKES DECISION ON INTEREST RATES? A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FORECAST IMPORTANCE

100%
Szyszko M.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2017
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vol. 12
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issue 2
281-294
EN
Research background: Most of the modern central banks (CBs) acknowledge the role of economic agents’ expectations in monetary policy. To shape these expectations and to over-come the lags occurrence, CBs produce and reveal macroeconomic forecast and declare that it is the input into their deliberations and monetary policy adjustments. This is how central banks implement inflation forecast targeting. The formal assessments of actual forecast importance in central banks’ decisions is not presented in the literature — to the best author’s knowledge. Purpose of the article: The paper is of methodological nature. It presents the index that compares inflation forecast importance in the central banks decisions. The elaboration of such index is the main goal of the paper. The index is tested empirically for Czechia and Sweden. Methods: Comparably to other research presenting the tools that approximate some qualitative variables, the methodological part of the paper offers the description of the factors covered by the index with their justification and point attribution. The index is suitable to assess CBs decision’s accordance with the forecast produced under constant rate assumption as well as under endogenous interest rates. It is designed to cover low quality data as the time series on the central path of the forecast are not always accessible. In this cases only the relation of the forecast to the inflation target is revealed on the fan charts. Findings & Value added: The index elaboration and its calculation for Czechia and Sweden is presented in the paper. It thus contributes to the literature on ex post assessment of the central bank’s actions. This formalized assessment opens the field for making further con-clusions on inflation forecast targeting implementations and possible impact of the forecast on the economic agents' expectations.
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CAN INFLATION FORECAST AND MONETARY POLICY PATH BE REALLY USEFUL? THE CASE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC

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Szyszko M., Tura K.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2015
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vol. 10
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issue 3
9-26
EN
Producing and revealing inflation forecast is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation.
3
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Inflation Forecasts Versus Shaping Inflation Expectations. Comparative Analysis / Prognoza Inflacji Wobec Kształtowania Oczekiwań Inflacyjnych. Analiza Porównawcza

75%
Szyszko M.
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
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2015
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vol. 18
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issue 4
139-156
EN
This article jointly analyzes inflation expectations of consumers and inflation forecasts. Its starting point is the predominant role of expectations in monetary policy. This is crucial market information in the decision-making process of the central bankers as it may show the actual future inflation. On the other hand, the central bank wants to influence expectations in order to facilitate achieving the main goals of monetary policy. Inflation forecasting is a tool for shaping public expectations. In the research, covering four central banks (the National Bank of Hungary, National Bank of Poland, the Czech National Bank, Sveriges Riksbank), the author analyzes the interdependencies of inflation forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers. Data on expectations are derived from the surveys and quantified. Then non-parametric measures of association are calculated. The results confirm the hypothesis on the existence of such relationships. The strength of this interdependence varies among countries, from weak to strong. The study opens the field for further discussions on strengthening this relationship.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono problematykę oczekiwań inflacyjnych konsumentów i prognoz inflacji banku centralnego. Punktem wyjścia w analizie jest istotna rola oczekiwań inflacyjnych w polityce pieniężnej. To ważka zmienna uwzględniania w procesie decyzyjnym przez komitety monetarne, gdyż obrazuje ona przyszły poziom inflacji. Banki centralne chcą również wpływać na poziom oczekiwań, gdyż kontrola nad nimi ułatwia osiąganie celu nadrzędnego polityki pieniężnej. Prognoza inflacji jest narzędziem, którego główną funkcją jest kształtowanie oczekiwań inflacyjnych uczestników życia gospodarczego. W obejmującym 4 banki centralne porównawczym badaniu empirycznym (Narodowy Bank Węgier, Narodowy Bank Polski, Narodowy Bank Czech, Bank Szwecji), autorka analizowała istnienie współzależności między prognozami inflacji banków centralnych a oczekiwaniami inflacyjnymi konsumentów. Dane o oczekiwaniach pozyskane są z sondaży i skwantyfikowane. Do badań ilościowych wykorzystano nieparametryczne miary współzależności. Wyniki badań potwierdzają istnienie takich współzależności. Ich siła jest różna w badanych krajach i zmienia się od słabej do umiarkowanej. Badanie otwiera pole do poszukiwań dalszych współzależności.
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